News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by userbinator on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @08:35PM (#16479945)
Or perhaps more positively, "e-waste production falls".

It's not surprising that the market would reach a saturation point; manufacturers are running short of ideas to improve their products, and even starting to resort to removing features.

Especially in the low-end/unbranded smartphone segment, I've noticed newer models aren't actually getting better. Several years ago they practically all had removable batteries, microSD, dual SIM, and a full complement of sensors; now it's nearly impossible to find such a complete combination anymore --- they're all missing one or two things.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by Yhippa on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:57PM (#16480776)
> and even starting to resort to removing features.

I'm usually the positive guy when it comes to change but boy do I miss the headphone jack on my phone. Bluetooth is such a pain.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by bornonline1 on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @02:01AM (#16481251)
Amazing how easy it is to make people accept horrible options.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by antisthenes on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @12:46PM (#16484948)
Then why'd you buy a phone without a headphone jack?
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @02:07PM (#16485734)
Not all decision implications are immediately apparent.

Alternatives to physically jacked connections are sold as something they're not. Disappointment happens.

I strongly recommend Robert Merton, "unintended consequences".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_K._Merton

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unintended_consequences

http://users.ipfw.edu/dilts/E%20306%20Readings/The%20Unantic...

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by Yhippa on Saturday March 03, 2018 @02:26AM (#16508335)
Because I thought I could do without one?
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by tachyoff on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @01:29AM (#16481120)
I’ve even considered ditching my smartphone entirely here and there. I’m not convinced its utility outweighs its use as an ad-driven anxiety rectangle constantly vying for my attention. Combined with the steady loss of features, I’m wondering if this decide is really a tool or a burden. Something to ponder, I suppose.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by suprfnk on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @02:54AM (#16481435)
Turn off all notifications. Delete all non-tool apps; you know, the apps that want you to spend time in them. Keep only the tool apps.

You won't spend 30 minutes scrolling through your navigation app, or your music app, or through the pictures you made, or looking at the weather forecast, or...

These are all very useful features. I wouldn't throw out the baby with the bathwater.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by enobrev on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @04:24AM (#16481800)
The Galaxy S8* has a "Do Not Disturb" mode which allows you to whitelist contacts for incoming calls and messages, and apps that can create notifications.

It's meant to be a temporary setting, like to turn on while in a meeting or while sleeping, but I have it set to run 24 hours a day, only allowing people in my "favorites" to call me, everyone in my contacts list to message me, and only allowing notifications from a couple apps.

I just set it up a week ago, and I absolutely love how little I'm bothered by my phone now, including no more calls from bots, which I was receiving around 4-6 times a day.

* I assume most recent Samsung equivalents have this feature as well. My S6 had it.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by ddalex on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @04:39AM (#16481876)
LineageOS as well has this feature. Put it on a Oneplus (to get rid of Chinese Spyware TM), add an Adblocker and True Caller (leaks agenda information, but we used to have phone-number books) and you'll have an actually decent smartphone experience.

When I'm testing new smartphones in stores, I'm shocked at how crappy the experience is compared to the LineageOS, both in terms of UI, and in terms of interruptions and notifications and ads shoved down the user's throat

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by letientai299 on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @05:01AM (#16481977)
I often see complains about mail or bots spamers. But I don't get why? I use smart phone several years and rarely has a random phone call from an unknown number, which real person on the other site. And I never got call from bots.

Could you share your experience about bot phone calls? What in it for them?

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by enobrev on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @06:19AM (#16482211)
You seem to have been down-voted. Wasn't me.

Just like email spam, I assume there's enough benefit to be worth the cost, which is far less than it used to be now that, much like the transition from physical mail to email, a computer can do the calling for very little cost or effort.

I used to get a a few random spam calls from people a week, and still do from time to time. They're generally trying to sell me something; trying to ask for my vote; trying to convince me that I'm in trouble for one thing or another and I should give them some personal information or money to get out of it.

As for being called by bots, if I answer and I don't hear a human voice within a second or two, then I assume a computer just dialed me. It might play me a recording; It might connect me with a human. Regardless, it was a bot that called me to begin with, and I've no interest in speaking with or waiting for the unsolicited demands of computer programs.

I used to be able to keep a list of numbers to block with whatever dialer app I was using, but it's gotten incredibly easy for these spammers to spoof numbers. The big trend in the past couple months seems to be to use numbers that have the first six or seven numbers of my full ten-digit phone number. So if my number was 444-555-6666, I'll get random calls throughout the day from 444-555-6777. It's obvious when I see the number - especially since my number is from a city I haven't lived in since 2012 - but harder to block via standard phone apps.

This is why the white-listing of a "Do Not Disturb" mode better suits me.

As for why I get so many spam calls, it's hard to say. I've had this number for almost 20 years. I'm sure it's been sold and resold for pennies hundreds of times. I'm sure it's also on plenty of database dumps from various hacks as well. No matter, switching numbers seems to be more hassle than it's worth. I assume whatever new number I get would be just as bad.

What I _really_ want is for phone numbers to become obsolete. Just a random UUID that means "Call / Text / Message enobrev" in someone else's device, where I can maintain a whitelist of who can connect to my devices to talk / chat / etc.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by flyinghamster on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @07:17AM (#16482448)
That's basically the approach I use, though it helps that I'm a Facebook refusenik. I do have Firefox installed, but I generally only use it during downtime for a quick news skim, or to look something up. Otherwise, just about everything I install is a tool of some sort or other. And there's no way in HELL that I'm going to put anything financial or medical on my phone. That's just asking for trouble.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by cageface on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @08:52AM (#16482924)
I've banished all apps that contain any kind of endless news feed. I still use my phone for messaging, hailing rides, maps etc but no longer have any reason to pull it out all the time to check for new junk information. I also worry a lot less about taking pictures because I don't have anywhere to post them.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by nmd on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @06:56AM (#16482366)
In addition to this I've found disabling Safari on iPhone (Settings -> General -> Restrictions) has been the final step from turning my phone from a distraction device into a smart tool.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by Arnt on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @06:38AM (#16482280)
I've been using a Unihertz Jelly Pro for a while now. That's tiny and runs android 7.

The thing that has surprised me most is that it's all utility. I can run Google Authenticator, I can read what I need to read, I can find out when the bus leaves, but the phone is no fun. The tiny screen doesn't attract or tempt me.

I thought I'd get something small that fits in every pocket, but stumbled upon something else. Maybe more.

(Same thing with more detail: http://rant.gulbrandsen.priv.no/unihertz)

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by Cbasedlifeform on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @08:55AM (#16482950)
My last smartphone was an iPhone 5S (which IMO is the nicest of all iPhone designs). The battery eventually died... I still think about reviving it. In any case I then got a cheap (30 quid IIRC) dual-sim little Nokia which takes a French and a UK sim card (pay as you go) and quite cheap for regular calls. Works like a charm, the battery lasts for days, and I don't worry if I lose it.

Separately I have an iPod touch which gives me some control over smartphone addictive behaviour as it only has wifi. And it has the headphone jack :) I absolutely refuse to buy a device without one.

I used to joke with friends about "smartphone zombies" in the streets but now it is no longer a joke. It's genuinely scary to be on a train or subway and see everyone glued to their phone without looking up. Mothers and kids each staring at screens instead of interacting.

I was a big Steve Jobs fan when he was alive, but now wonder if the iPhone (and its competition) are destroying society the way automobiles destroyed much of the physical world.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by robin_reala on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @02:49AM (#16481426)
I rarely see ads on my phone, I guess through a combination of using an adblocker in Firefox and mostly paying for ad-free apps. Is it really a major problem?
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by blattimwind on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @07:24AM (#16482486)
I replaced my smartphone with a wristwatch; that way I get rid of that stupid thing and I'm waaay ahead even of Apple in terms of removing features.

Its kinda funny how removing features is defended by "well it makes them simpler and lighter and smaller", meanwhile 99 % of all smartphones are basically tablet-sized nowadays with insanely large and unwieldy screens.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by addicted on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @09:29AM (#16483172)
This is a really good point. Very few software developers or product designers will argue against simplifying their apps reducing complexity within their apps.

However, at the aggregate level, I.e. the device level, the message is the opposite. Apple, Google, and 3rd party devs and businesses keep promoting the idea of more apps which essentially eliminates and overwhelm the benefits a user may see from simplicity at the app level.

A good example are messaging apps. While each messaging app may have simplified (even as they add features) for a regular user, they have to worry about 3-4 different messaging apps as well as which contact has to be contacted through which app. Do I use iMessage, FB messenger, Hangouts, WhatsApp to contact a person?

This is something Apple and Google should be tackling at the platform level. Windows Phone, and WebOS before it, made some token efforts towards this through their hub concepts, but they were destroyed by lack of support, and lack of open standards.

We really need to be promoting more open standards to enable users to control their phones, instead of becoming slaves to them.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by CompuHacker on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @03:11AM (#16481492)
Any apps you have shouldn't rely on access to the Internet; they should make use of the hardware and resources you have. Remote into a "real computer" to do the important things.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @08:51PM (#16480012)
In Energy and Civilization, Vaclav Smil points out that in terms of embedded energy, an automobile, with over 1,000x the mass of a smartphone, has only 100x the embedded energy.

Given replacement cycles, humanity now invests more energy in creating smartphones (life expectancy: ~2 years) than automobiles (~10 years). By year-of-use embedded energy, autos use only 30% of the resources of smartphones.

(p. 344, box)

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by gooseus on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @10:47PM (#16480540)
Very interesting, I guess that's another book on my reading list...

Do you know if this relates, in any way, to the energy economics and diminishing marginal returns from increasing complexity that Joseph Tainter[0] covers in The Collapse of Complex Societies[1]?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter#Diminishing_ret...

[1] http://wtf.tw/ref/tainter.pdf

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @04:29AM (#16481834)
Generally, yes, though Smil doesn't really develop the concept of complexity and collapse as Tainter does.

Tainter is cited in the book, though unfortunately the citations / notes format is one that makes it exceedingly difficult to sort out where (this is one of my few complaints with this book, and Smil's writing generally -- he follows a social sciences citations format of (Author <year>) inline, which makes finding, and identifying, references tedious -- I'm the sort of cat who really likes either section-based endnotes or page-based footnotes for tracking things).

That said: Smil's citations are excellent, and his books are worth buying for the references alone. They're also far more worth buying (or reading) for the actual text, but good refs are a very strong bonus.

If you're interested in Tainter's view, I would suggest taking a look, if you can find a copy, at Manfred Weissenbacher's Sources of Power, published in 2009, and covering much the same concept. Weissenbacher's approach is similar to Smil's, and the latter cites Smil's earlier book, Energy in World History (1992) extensively. Weissenbacher looks far more into the political aspects of energy regimes, particularly in the 19th and 20th centuries, and arguably to a fault.

The book is also extensively researched, though far-less-evenly written than Smil's. Neither author is a native English speaker, but Smil has a far better command of the language, and the discipline and/or editorial assistance to tighten up and clean up his writing. That said, despite the similarities, the works do complement one another.

Another author I'd recommend is William Ophuls, particularly Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity (1977, revised ~1994), which predates but also anticipates much of Tainter's work. Ophul's background and focus is politics and polity, but through the lenses of ecology and Limits to Growth particularly. His forecast of political developments strikes me as particularly good, capturing much of what actually did transpire, with few failures, save the quite notable one that we have so far managed to avoid an absolutely devastating general famine. But his national / regional assessment strikes me as pretty true -- it's based on the US, EU, USSR (still a thing, though he saw trouble for it), China, India, Africa, and Latin America, generally.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by malloryerik on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @06:46AM (#16482321)
All fascinating, though I can't believe that we'll have devastating general famines. Agriculture is a technical problem, and the trend has been increased yields and decreasing prices, despite the many awful choices we've made at times.

Solar energy, cheap desalination and bioscience are likely to make food ever cheaper and more abundant, wouldn't you think?

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @01:39PM (#16485451)
Correction: Agriculture is an ecological problem. Technology is one subset of it.

A useful concept comes from the domain of navigation:

"The Art of ship handling involves the effective use of forces under control to overcome the effect of forces not under control."

- Charles H. Cotter

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by malloryerik on Wednesday March 07, 2018 @04:20AM (#16535227)
Sure, point taken.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by cameldrv on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:32PM (#16480692)
If a car is 100x the embedded energy and lasts 5x as long, then the car takes 20x as much energy per useful year. This doesn't count the energy to run each of them, which is more lopsided obviously.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @04:10AM (#16481733)
So, I managed to goof the account above a few ways.

First, cars weigh 10,000 times, not 1,000 times, more than a cellphone.

Embodied (not embedded) energy is 100x greater for the automobile.

The units produced annually is a major factor: 2 billion for mobile phones, 72 million for automobiles. That plus product life skews the number toward phones a lot.

I did manage to get the bottom-line value right: autos use 0.72 exajoules of energy per year of use, 30% less than mobile phones.

A longer version of the example was published in IEEE Spectrum in 2016:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/environment/your-phone-cost...

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by IkmoIkmo on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @04:39AM (#16481882)
Interesting article, thanks for posting! A few things to add.

Your article actually says that cars use 7x as much embodied energy as devices, (7 to 1), but then corrects both for lifetime (10 and 2 years), thus you get 0.5 vs 0.7 for devices vs cars respectively, not 1 vs 0.7.

The article then concludes cars use 40% more embedded energy than all devices on the planet, not 30% less.

Then, we're talking about phones here, the article about devices, including 60 million laptops which the article assumes use 18x the embodied energy of a phone. i.e., next to the 1.9 billion phones, the article essentially adds in 1.08 billion phone-equivalent laptops, which carry a worse energy/mass ratio, but aren't adjusted for a much better lifetime than 2 years average. Same for smartphones, btw. The article leaves out embodied energy of cars and just assumes a car to perform without any repairs or maintenance for 10 years, like a phone does for 2 years.

It also doesn't really explicitly mention the context which is that it's a comparison is between more than 2 billion devices servicing an approximately similar amount of humans, vs 72 million vehicles.

The article does mention that a phone's energy use in 2 years would add, at most, 8% to its embodied energy, for an indexed figure of 1.08. A car uses 5x as much of its embodied energy, for a total figure of 6x. Again, this is without figuring in maintenance. In short, for a real impact figure you'd multiply the 0.72 by 6, and you end up with energy to 72m cars using more than 8x as much energy than 2 billion smartphones and more than a billion phone-equivalent laptop/tablet devices, at minimum.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @05:12AM (#16482000)
The book and article differ on the 30% / 40% point, and Smil is IMO not entirely clear here (or I'm up too late reading this).

The general upshot is that silicon is very energy-intensive stuff -- to manufacture, and to operate. Several authors (including Smil) have noted that the highest energy use densities, in terms of watts per unit-mass of equipment, are seen in information systems. There's a reason for all those massive cooling systems at datacentres.

(And yes, I've just shifted the discussion from embodied energy to operating energy, in the interest of the general point of energy consumption of information systems, not trying to confuse the two points, though that has been done several times already in various parts of this thread, including your own response above.)

That density still doesn't necessarily imply greater total energy use, though it starts getting you that way.

As for transport vs. information: a further point to consider is that there are constraints on moving people around in a physical environment, imposed by mass, air, rolling resistance, and braking (or regen) losses. We're relatively close -- definitely within an order of magnitude, and possibly a power or so of two, to those limits. For information, the theoretical efficiencies are high (Feynman did work on this IIRC), but our technology is nowhere near that bound, and we seem quite good at throwing additional tasks and requirements on our computing systems as efficiency improves. (This is also true of transport -- both are subject to the Jevons paradox.)

This also gets us to a sort of Amdahl's Law problem: as the operational energy of computers falls, the embodied energy costs seem to increase and become a larger portion of the overall expense. Since the operating cost == marginal cost, this also means that market dynamics alone, which function based on marginal costs, are exceedingly unlikely to discourage this trend. It's another zero-marginal-cost dynamic (see Jeremy Rifkin's recent book).

Smil has a great deal of expertise and experience here, his writing is usually pretty clear, and I'm inclined to credit his claims. Though I may need to evaluate this particular one more closely. Though at some time when my neurons are not in isolation cells....

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by cameldrv on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @03:13PM (#16486360)
These calculations are pretty hard since cars are all different and so are phones. We do know that the auto industry is about 1.7 trillion dollars per year, and the phone market is about 500 billion. This suggests to me that autos are likely more. In total lifecycle though the energy used by autos is far far greater than by phones as well.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Thursday March 01, 2018 @08:37PM (#16498161)
The law of large numbers is your friend.

"Large" is ~ n > 30.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by forapurpose on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @01:08AM (#16481047)
> This doesn't count the energy to run each of them

Or to manufacture or to dispose of them.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @04:30AM (#16481842)
Embodied energy is specifically the manufacturing cost, and may include total product lifecycle costs, other than use. That would include disposal.
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by forapurpose on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @09:34AM (#16483211)
Thanks for the education; that's a useful concept.

> Embodied

Do you mean "embedded"? I'm not nitpicking; I want to make sure I understand.

Where does one find the embedded/embodied energy for a product? I'd be surprised if it can be calculated - the energy required to mine, transport, manufacture, dispose every bit of every raw material that eventually goes into all the parts of an automobile (or other complex modern device)? It would be a very valuable but daunting task. How is it done and who does it?

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @12:02PM (#16484477)
Apparently both terms are used. I feel slightly less stupid.

http://www.appropedia.org/Embedded_energy

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by davidgay on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @12:25AM (#16480877)
> In Energy and Civilization, Vaclav Smil points out that in terms of embedded energy, an automobile, with over 1,000x the mass of a smartphone, has only 100x the embedded energy.

Assuming embedded energy means "battery / fuel capacity" this seems very wrong:

- typical compact car (~3000 lbs, ~1360kg) / Samsung S8 (155g) = 8800

- 50L fuel tank = 475000 Wh / Samsung S8 battery 11.55Wh = 41000

So that's ~4.6x more stored energy per kg, not 10x less.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by holri on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @12:49AM (#16480982)
Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by dredmorbius on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @04:04AM (#16481707)
"Embedded energy" is the total energy of manufacturing and processing, not the energy storage of a device or vehicle itself. On that basis, the automobile has many, many, many times the storage of a cellphone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embodied_energy

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by odiroot on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @04:44AM (#16481899)
I have the same impression recently. It's nearly impossible to get a good compact phone.

My last one was Sony Xperia X Compact. XZ1 Compact is basically a clone with slightly better specs, no point to upgrade. XZ2 compact while getting beefier lost the headphone jack.

I'm basically waiting and hoping for Xiaomi to release some nice compact in 2018.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by B1FF_PSUVM on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @07:04AM (#16482393)
> nearly impossible to get a good compact phone

Psst: iphone SE. Cheapest Apple around.

(Windows phone orphan here, making do.)

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by odiroot on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @08:05AM (#16482696)
That's (iOS) not a solution for me.

EDIT:

Also, it's only 4in display with even worse screen-to-body ratio than Xperia.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by flyinghamster on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @07:35AM (#16482541)
Another thing I hate seeing is that even when you have an unlockable bootloader (like my LG Stylo 2 Plus), good luck finding a custom ROM for it. LineageOS? I can only wish. For the most part, only LG's flagships get any love - and even if it became available I'd have to hope that it doesn't implode the way CyanogenMod did. I don't have the free time to port it myself, either.

At least LG's Android skin isn't bad.

I spent a while on XDA, and that whole scene seems horribly broken. I ran an older phone rooted for a while, but keeping up with root and security updates got to be a real pain.

Re:Smartphone sales fall for the first time, says Gartner by reacweb on Wednesday February 28, 2018 @07:31AM (#16482527)
If you do not care about version of android, https://fr.aliexpress.com/item/ASUS-Zenfone-MAX-ZC550KL-Andr.... For me, it is feature complete (one of the most important feature being the small price tag).