News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by mcphilip on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @10:47PM (#12905908)
It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by Alex3917 on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:03PM (#12905956)
I had a feeling this was going to happen today when I saw that virtually everyone in my Facebook feed and everyone on the streets of NYC was supporting Hillary. Every extra +1 in NYC is pretty much going to be -1 in a swing state.

As one of the hundreds of folks banned from DailyKos for being too liberal, I've been spending some time reading the Trump subreddit, and I have to say that Hillary has run perhaps the worst campaign in memory:

- Rigged the primaries against Bernie, disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of voters, and cheated during the debates.

- Spent 5x more on paid media advertising, and got all the social media sites to censor pro-Trump messages.

- Paid shills to attack anyone who disagrees with her policies on social media.

- It looks like there is a good chance her campaign was behind the attempt to frame Assange for pedophilia.

- Made gender her primary selling point with her #imwithher slogan. (Imagine if she had gone with something like #TheNextAmerica instead, to contrast with MAGA.)

- Accusing Trump of saying and doing tons of things he didn’t actually say or do.

- Characterizing Trump supporters as racists, bigots, deplorables, etc.

- Paying people to incite violence at Trump rallies

- Accusing Russia of hacking her campaign’s emails when in fact it was oedesta who gave out his password to a phishing site… twice… without two-factor enabled.

- Having Bill meet with Loretta Lynch during the email investigation. Then appointing Podesta's close friend to run the email investigation which resulted in a last minute FBI coup forcing Comey to make a statement.

I didn't vote for Trump, I don't support Trump, and I'm as horrified that he's going to be President as anyone else. But I have to say the actions of the DNC, Hillary, her campaign, and many of her supporters have been egregiously bad.

And now everything is super fucked.

edit: For everyone downvoting me, go turn on The Young Turks livestream and hear it from Cenk.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by 75j on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:25PM (#12906025)
Yep. Trump is a monster, but this feels sort of good knowing how Clinton and her supporters acted. If only people could have seen the light about the Clintons a year ago, then maybe there would've been better choices today.

And remember! The blame for a Trump presidency lies with none other than Hillary Clinton. She's the one that cheated a popular opponent in the primaries, that strategized to promote Trump during the Republican debates, that infiltrated the media and turned journalists into self-admitted "hacks", and she's the one that interjected herself into the presidential race despite knowing that her "scandals" -- electoral corruption, mishandling of classified information, pay-for-play at the Clinton foundation, Bill's history of child rape, etc. -- all disqualify her as a viable opponent to Trump.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by humanrebar on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:33PM (#12906062)
Well, to be Machiavellian for a minute, Trump is the only candidate that Clinton has a prayer against. The other Republicans consistently outperform Trump in the polls. On the other hand, this has been a bad year for pollsters.

If she really believed in her causes and not her career, she could have decided not to run and backed a promising successor a long time ago.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by Natsu on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:51AM (#12906504)
Thanks to Wikileaks, we know that the Democrats wanted to ensure that the Republicans would nominate someone more extreme. Look at the PDF attachment here. There's more than just this quote, too:

Operationalizing the Strategy Pied Piper Candidates

There are two ways to approach the strategies mentioned above. The first is to use the field as a whole to inflict damage on itself similar to what happened to Mitt Romney in 2012. The variety of candidates is a positive here, and many of the lesser known can serve as a cudgel to move the more established candidates further to the right. In this scenario, we don’t want to marginalize the more extreme candidates, but make them more “Pied Piper” candidates who actually represent the mainstream of the Republican Party. Pied Piper candidates include, but aren’t limited to:

• Ted Cruz

• Donald Trump

• Ben Carson

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/1120 (Read the PDF attached)

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ihsw on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:56AM (#12906533)
Is there anyone else that could have secured a majority in the House and potentially (as of 1247am EST) the Senate? I doubt that, DC politics is more about trading wins like potheads passing the joint around. I don't mean that pejoratively but literally -- Republicans and Democrats trade wins and losses to curry favor with one-another, meanwhile the interests of the American people are secondary to this political snobbery.

Furthermore, who else could have rallied the masses to vote so thoroughly? A Jeb vs Hillary election would have been very dull, almost depressingly so, meanwhile a Cruz vs Hillary election would have bordered on hopelessly disinteresting.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ericd on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:30PM (#12906055)
It sounds like you want to cut off your nose to spite your face.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by 75j on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:43PM (#12906103)
How so? I'm not excited about a Trump presidency.

My hopes are that 1) the media will keep a better eye on Trump (going off the last 8 years, they'll ignore any atrocity as long as it's committed by the blue team), 2) that Trump is not as smart as Clinton, and therefore less able to deceptively achieve his goals and 3) that 4 years of Trump will mobilize Americans to fix their electoral system and seek out real alternatives to the Democrat / Republican duopoly.

[dead]
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by akiselev on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:08AM (#12906240)
Oh please, stop the rhetoric. There will still be an election in 2018 and even in 2020. More importantly there will still be redistricting after the 2020 census and using a Trump backlash the Democrats might actually be able to redistrict in their favor along demographic lines, shutting out the Republicans from majority control of national and state houses for ever.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by 75j on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:06AM (#12906225)
And you realize that Clinton is actually a Republican too? I'm not calling it our Brexit moment, nor am I remotely excited about the next 4 years. I don't know what kind of moment it is, but let's not pretend that Clinton was a safe alternative. She is as dangerous as Trump, if not more so.

I personally would have liked to see Jill Stein hit 5%, but that looks unlikely.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:29AM (#12906348)
Clinton may have been a centrist and not helped the Poor. Trump won't help the poor, so it's at best a toss-up.

The problem is that there are a lot of people who are not white, male, Christian, heterosexual, natural-born. And it's gonna get difficult for all those people. Clinton would've left them alone, Trump is fanning the flames of xenophobia.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by matwood on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:35AM (#12906387)
Calling Trump a Republican is probably a bit strong. He ran on that ticket, but historically his views are quite liberal.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by dragonwriter on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:55AM (#12906867)
Historically, his views have been whatever was convenient for networking with politicians useful to his business interests.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by wbl on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:04AM (#12906218)
Nope. I don't think John McCain or Mitt Romney would ever want a dictatorship. Heck, I think 90% of Americans would take up arms if a president didn't give up power peacefully and the military didn't peacefully stop listening and push him out the door.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by Alex3917 on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:15AM (#12906273)
I meant in terms of this election being a reaction against the moral decadence of the establishment rather than being about economic independence. I didn't mean that the US was going to become a dictatorship. (And in fact Iran itself still has elections.)
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by RandomOpinion on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:11PM (#12905985)
Not surprised; a day of reckoning was bound to come for the left. Consider that even if Trump had lost, his power base would still have existed afterward. Trump is not the problem, Trump is a symptom.

The American left took its eyes off of what's important, namely the working class, and instead spent its time and political capital on frivolous[0] causes. This is a wake-up call to refocus.

[0] Lots of things some might consider important are frivolous when you're living paycheck-to-paycheck.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by basch on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:17AM (#12906279)
This isnt a day of reckoning for the Left. He hijacked the GOP against its own will and destroyed the DNC. That's a collapse of two establishment parties, not one.
[dead]
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by RandomOpinion on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:51PM (#12906136)
Stop. The. Name. Calling. Stop it right now. Even if your demographic breakdown were correct[0], those are your fellow citizens your're referring to. That tone is why the left is in the state it is right now.

Trump is, perhaps, not going to help "those people" but neither, in their minds, was Clinton. They are simply going with the "perhaps" rather than (again, in their mind) certain no.

[0] For example, suburbanites support Trump in about equal numbers and about 1/3 of college graduates and postgraduates support Trump. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-electi...

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by coderdude on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:56PM (#12906164)
Arguing to stop the name-calling is about as effective on HN as it would be on the YouTube comments for a John Oliver video. HN is decidedly slanted on this matter. It's business as usual for democrats to call people names if you don't agree with them. Has been for as long as I can remember.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by RandomOpinion on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:14AM (#12906264)
You'd be surprised. The left is no more unified that the right, in many ways, and members of the mainstream left have been cautioning against this derisive labeling issue for quite some time now. See, for example, Rensin's "The smug style in American liberalism" linked to on HN at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12106004
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by coderdude on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:15AM (#12906272)
Interesting. I'll check it out.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by throwanem on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:30AM (#12906355)
It's a good article. If modern progressivism were remotely at home to wisdom of the sort it offers, I wouldn't have cast a ballot for Trump today.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:23AM (#12906686)
Sorry, I'm not a conservative.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by chc on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @02:11AM (#12906980)
Yes, stop the name-calling or you'll end up like the guy who coined "Lyin' Ted," "Crooked Hillary" and "Little Marco."
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @02:16AM (#12907020)
Also "Pocahontas"
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:13AM (#12906259)
Sorry, I don't get it. Which part is the name calling?

I also am not sure what you mean by 'fellow citizens' or 'the left'. I'm not American. And Hillary Clinton is not a left candidate, she's centre-right.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:20AM (#12906295)
The racist part was the name calling. The post overall sounded derisive.

The people your criticizing want job security, not lynchings.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:36AM (#12906393)
Are you saying Trump is not a racist? Are you saying that it's not true that many Trump supporters are openly racist? Are you saying this is not racism: https://twitter.com/SRowntreeNews/status/796141495573155840 ?

Calling somebody out as racist is not name-calling if it's true.

I feel like the US has become this bizarre place where it's okay to be racist and sexist, but if you call people out for it you're the bad guy.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:49AM (#12906493)
Many are, but so are many (assumed) Clinton supporters:

http://thefederalist.com/2016/10/27/berkeley-activists-block...

And as I said elsewhere, many of Trumps votes are coming from people that voted for Obama last time. Do you really think they are racist?

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:56AM (#12906536)
(assumed)
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by coderdude on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:41AM (#12906428)
Racism and sexism are indeed alive and well: https://hn.algolia.com/?query=white%20male&sort=byPopularity...

The first and second hit are from you, humorously enough.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:06AM (#12906604)
Fivethirtyeight had a funny post earlier today mentions how white males are now voting as a minority block.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by reitanqild on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:51AM (#12906503)
Quoting you:

> (, racist) working class folks

You didn't say Trump was, you tried to smear the whole working class or at least the ones that voted for Trump.

I don't like Trump, I just personally refuse to think that 50% of Americans are stupid racists.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:09AM (#12906621)
I put the racist in parenthesis, so clearly I don't mean all of them. But I think a lot of the sort of poor/working class Mid-Western people are in fact racist. If you listen to some reports of Trump rallies; or if you listen to how a lot of these people viewed the 'black lives matter' movement, I don't think its inaccurate. Or if you look at the very strong undercurrent of racism that permeates all of the US.

Racism has been shamed for many decades, and Trump made it 'in' again.

Racism was a major issue in this election. The SNL's 'black jeopardy' skit was surprisingly observant in this respect [1]. I didn't expect people on HN to just dismiss it like that. Or completely ignoring an argument about how people cutting their nose to spite their face, because it included the word 'racist'.

It's kind of ironic, like I tickled somebody's PC funny bone, when Trump's campagin was all about the freedom to say whatever you want.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUe0xy-yidk

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by RandomOpinion on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:21AM (#12906300)
My apologies, I had assumed that you were American.

Since this is a thread on an American presidential election, on the American political spectrum, Mrs. Clinton would be considered to be on the left or center-left.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by Inconel on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:38PM (#12906082)
I imagine at the very least he won't treat them with open contempt and hostility. That probably goes a long way for some of these voters.

I'm not a Trump supporter, but I do live in coastal California, and the absolute derision with which I see relatively privileged, affluent, college educated people treat or talk about the working/rural poor in "flyover" country makes me question whether, despite my current views, I too wouldn't vote Trump if I found myself on the receiving end of such hostility.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:49PM (#12906124)
> I imagine at the very least he won't treat them with open contempt and hostility

As long as you're white, male, hetero, anti-intelectual, Christian, and not born in another country.

EDIT: it seems that people are really sensitive about being called out for all the hate Trump spews in their name.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by matwood on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:59PM (#12906178)
For starters he didn't walk around calling them uneducated idiots like many on the left have and continue to do.

Bernie and Trump are touching into the same underlying problem that a lot of people have been left behind. They have felt screwed by the system for awhile and this is what we get. Heck, Bernie supporters got screwed again during the primary.

This is also only the start. Wait until we automate all fast food and driving jobs to see what a angry, jobless populace looks like.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:17AM (#12906281)
Clinton called somebody idiots? I thought she only called Trump an idiot. Which doesn't seem like an unfair assessment.

I mean as far as name-calling goes, I got the impression Hillary is doing almost none of that; whereas Trump was vicious.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:23AM (#12906313)
Remember when she called them a "bag of deplorables"? Not that trump was exactly statesman like, but I don't remember him insulting Clinton supporters, just Clinton herself.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ant6n on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @02:18AM (#12907034)
“You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right?

“The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic – you name it. And unfortunately, there are people like that. And he has lifted them up.

“Some of those folks,” she added, “they are irredeemable.”

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by Mathnerd314 on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:25AM (#12906323)
Trump has words ("the best words"). The words will inspire Congress to pass laws. The laws will (in theory) help the people. Trump will continue traveling around the country, and report back to Congress what is or is not working.

Beyond that it's difficult to say, Trump has promised little but hinted at a lot.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by basch on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:19AM (#12906290)
for lack of better terms, relevantly speaking, doesnt collapsing robber baron portfolios reduce wealth inequality?
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by pastProlog on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:17PM (#12906005)
One person who has been clear-headed about this for weeks is Michael Moore. Michigan and Wisconsin were supposed to be in the bag for Hillary, but that looks like where the surprise swing is coming from. Moore said from on the ground it felt like white working class people suffering from deindustrialization felt Hillary would do little for them, and might pick up the Molotov cocktail of Trump to throw into the system. His comments have been in lots of pro-Trump videos for weeks. Looks like he was right.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @10:49PM (#12905913)
Then you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by morgante on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @10:52PM (#12905923)
Where is there to "get out" to though? Economically the US has been outperforming the rest of the world recently.

I'm especially worried because the developer job market is a lot worse outside the US than inside it. I genuinely don't know where to go (recession seems inevitable).

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by tedmiston on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @10:58PM (#12905940)
Canada, Australia, New Zealand...
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by danthejam on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:03PM (#12905958)
Can't people just decide to create a new SV somewhere and do it? It's just people you need to move.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:10PM (#12905982)
Why make a new one and not secede?
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by Inconel on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:18PM (#12906008)
I'm not particularly well informed on the actual logistics of mounting a secession from the rest of the US, although at the very least I would imagine securing water rights would itself be a significant challenge for SV, but I very much doubt the "disruptors" in SV have the wherewithal to stomach such an endeavor.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:01AM (#12906570)
I'm not super familiar with the geography there but I'd imagine everything west of the rockies (is that the right mountain range) would go with California and I thought that this was the source of the water.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by Inconel on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:27AM (#12906717)
I believe a large part of Northern California's, and by extension Silicon Valley's, water comes from the Sierras. The communities of the Sierras, as well as those of the Central Valley which separates Northern and Southern California, tend to be fairly conservative. They also have high rates of firearms ownership. I don't think they would be too keen to join in on a hypothetical SV secession.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:48AM (#12906829)
It would be a very short, very ugly civil war essentially.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by Inconel on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:58AM (#12906883)
I agree it would be ugly, I'm not so sure it would be short though.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by myhf on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:46AM (#12906822)
Svexit
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:04PM (#12905959)
I'm quite partial to Ireland myself, but then, I'm not a developer. Canada also seems lovely this time of year.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ythl on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:01PM (#12905953)
Come on, at least give the guy a chance before bashing the future economy.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:04PM (#12905963)
Watches markets around the world tumble

Yeeeaaaaah...

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:11PM (#12905986)
Just as they always do when something unexpected happens.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by matwood on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:04AM (#12906221)
Markets hate the unexpected. I'm viewing this huge down as a buy opportunity.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:36AM (#12906397)
Yeah, have fun with that. I don't think putting money in the markets right now is a great move unless you can afford to lose it all. Granted, that's always the case to some extent.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by matwood on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:32AM (#12906736)
All? C'mon, the markets are not going to zero. If they did, money would become worthless anyway.

Trump is likely going to be very business friendly, and after the initial shock wears off the markets will recover and move on.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:50AM (#12906835)
We were already looking rough before Trump, the UK has Brexit, the EU is struggling, China is... who the hell knows. I think we could be in for some historically bad times, and all of this while the Middle East and Northern Africa are burning.

If not for nuclear detente, I'd be pretty concerned about WWIII right about now.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by ythl on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @04:57PM (#12915101)
Watches markets around the world recover within hours

Yeeeaaaaah...

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by MichaelBurge on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @10:53PM (#12905925)
Canada's immigration site is down due to volume.

It won't happen, but it'd be hilarious if the Democrats planned to rig future elections by importing millions of immigrants to vote for them, and they instead end up emigrating by the millions to Canada thus swinging it in the opposite direction.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:53PM (#12906149)
I imagine it wasn't built to handle high volumes in the first place.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:07PM (#12905968)
At this point I'd almost welcome a truly rigged system, or even a secret service member who doesn't mind a lifetime in prison. Eight years of W. Bush was bad, and frankly I doubt the economy could withstand whatever Trump has in "mind".
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by Inconel on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:29PM (#12906050)
As someone who very much dislikes the prospect of a Trump presidency, and is in fact well to the left of the Democratic party and Hillary Clinton on most social and economic issues, I find this line of thinking quite troubling.

Perhaps rather than hoping for assassinations or voter fraud, those of us who identify as "progressive" could instead channel that mental energy into finding ways to better appeal to large groups of working class people who are imo justifiably angry at the state of things in this country.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:25AM (#12906319)
You know what? People as a group are just too stupid and easily manipulated to be helped, and given that Trump now gets to pick (probably) 3 SCOTUS seats? We're cooked.

Basically, for most of us here, the rest of our lives will have this election hanging over us, for the implications on the SCOTUS alone. As I said, people who can afford it are going to leave in droves.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by throwanem on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @12:38AM (#12906404)
> People as a group are just too stupid and easily manipulated to be helped

Do you want President Trump? Because this is how you get President Trump.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:23AM (#12906689)
No, Evangelicals and uneducated whites are how we get President Trump, along with a majority of people who don't even vote, and a minority who "vote their conscience" with a fool like Johnson despite the lessons of 2000.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by inimino on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:40AM (#12906780)
You should be ashamed of yourself for posting this.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:52AM (#12906847)
Care to explain why exactly?
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by inimino on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @02:02AM (#12906913)
Do I really need to?

If you think that your "I'd almost welcome" weasel wording makes what you're implying acceptable, you need to reconsider the responsibilities of citizenship in a democracy.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @02:09AM (#12906959)
Show me a democracy and I'll consider it.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:05PM (#12905965)
Everyone mentions Brexit but I have to wonder it the roots of this goes back to the 90's. Remember the battle of seattle and the likes?

I can think of a few other more local (to Australia) events that seem to make sense when you factor in this bubbling discontentment.

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by M_Grey on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:16PM (#12906003)
The roots of this are 8 years of a black man in the White House.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by flukus on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:19PM (#12906011)
Trump is winning areas that voted for Obama. I don't think Obama was really that effective at courting the white supremacist vote.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by chiaro on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:00PM (#12905946)
To be fair, the polls were consistently in the opposite direction. 538 had clinton at 70%, PEC at 99%, everyone else somewhere in between. It's a black swan event, bubble or no.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by inimino on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:45AM (#12906806)
A 30% probability event coming to pass isn't a black swan event. This term is unfortunately overused for anything unexpected but that isn't what it means.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by lucio on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @02:23AM (#12907083)
It is a black swan event? or there are significant problems with the polls?
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by humanrebar on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:34PM (#12906067)
A new wrinkle on the Bradley effect, maybe?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by trhway on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:28PM (#12906045)
LA times had it for trump. They had their own weighting. Their results when adjusted for commonly accepted weighting matched the common poll average. So it is in the weighting.
Re:Live Presidential Forecast by chiaro on Tuesday November 08, 2016 @11:38PM (#12906083)
No they didn't:

>Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trai...

Re:Live Presidential Forecast by trhway on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:44AM (#12906798)
Your link doesn't work for me. If you look at their Daybreak poll http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ you can see that they had Trump at 46.8 and Hillary at 43.6