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Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by pjmlp on Monday July 11, 2016 @03:51AM (#12069500)
As a foreign living in Germany I do appreciate the mentality that things "should be done the correct way", but many here don't understand you cannot just change a country's culture by forcing them to strictly follow EU rules.

As it has already been proven by the lumping economies in the southern Europe, people will suffer and everyone will just make use of black market for jobs and goods to survive at any cost or just leave the country thus making it even poorer in available resources to lift it up.

Now Italy is also in the game.

Assuming the Brexit works for the UK, I am just waiting to see who's next.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by mtanski on Monday July 11, 2016 @07:30AM (#12070315)
> As a foreign living in Germany I do appreciate the mentality that things "should be done the correct way", but many here don't understand you cannot just change a country's culture by forcing them to strictly follow EU rules.

You mean like Germany's biggest car maker solved the disel exhaust correctly? I don't your generalization stands up.

What I can agree with is that the Germans are sticklers for sticklers sense. And I could argue that breaking more rules and being more aggressive during the financial melt down has left us much better of in the US. Vice versus in the EU being slow and not compromising enough has only paid the shit dividend they've been reaping since the melt down. Much of that fault lies with the Germans being sticklers for sticklers sake.

Finally, it seams pretty short sighted when DB (Deuche Bank) is it self a ticking time bomb, one with additional exposure on Italy.

Nobody is denying that Italy needs structural reform; that's obvious. Germany's instance to be a stickler for sticklers sake is not helping anybody (themselves included).

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by pjmlp on Monday July 11, 2016 @08:21AM (#12070512)
> Germany's instance to be a stickler for sticklers sake is not helping anybody

Which is why I mentioned "but many here don't understand you cannot just change a country's culture by forcing them to strictly follow EU rules.".

The VW case is seen by many as an exception and usually every corruption case tends to be dealt exemplary, whereas in my home country (PT) corruption, specially the small one (owning favors) is still seen as profitable, because no big fish really gets prosecuted and it is the only way some things are actually done.

We know for such that such cases will drag in court and be archived after a few years of public discussion on the media.

Good luck trying to live in the southern or eastern Europe trying to do without small favors. It is possible and many people strive for it, but it isn't easy.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by blablablame on Monday July 11, 2016 @09:49AM (#12070995)
Think you are painting a starker picture than it really is. I never paid a 'bribe' or a lunch to anyone in 33 years living here (Porto and Algarve). My parents have said to me the same. There was one occasion where a gov. official asked for one from my father for a license for either a building permit or some construction permit (not sure) and as soon as my father heard that, called his lawyer in front of him and told her what happened. Later in the day he got the license (lawyer contacted his superior the same day).

And for Germany and corruption, while there may not be as much corruption inside Germany, German companies are in the top when it involves other countries (Submarines in PT, don't remember what in Greece, etc). Heck, they were even tax deductible until recently: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/1995-08-06/germany-wh...

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by pjmlp on Monday July 11, 2016 @10:21AM (#12071204)
Some examples that I am familiar with, by no means an exhaustive list.

- Not asking for a receipt when going to a private doctor to save on VAT

- Going to an unofficial dealer instead of getting the car serviced on the official brand stores

- Getting an hospital appointment to a know doctor via networking instead of waiting months for a random doctor at the district hospital

- Not declaring 100% of the income to IRS

- Renting rooms to university students without contracts

- Double accounting on restaurants

- Spending up construction license approvals on the countryside

- Black job market for farm and construction workers

- Work positions that are already given, when displayed on the Government newspaper

- Jobs by being the "sun/daughter/cousin of" instead of proper hiring process

Yes, not everyone makes use of those tricks.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by paulryanrogers on Monday July 11, 2016 @09:28AM (#12070866)
> And I could argue that breaking more rules and being more aggressive during the financial melt down has left us much better of in the US.

Not sure the aggression and rule breaking are what has helped in the US. Considering the US debt and wasted bailout money I'm not so sure the US really is better off.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by charlesdm on Monday July 11, 2016 @04:07AM (#12069555)
As often with things in life, is there really a correct way? I mean, yes, there are laws saying banks cannot receive state aid, but they were only introduced recently.

Does that really mean we should let a massive bank (or multiple banks) go bankrupt? Given the global financial system is so interconnected, only a fool would think this would have no impact to the german economy. I don't mind rules, but every rule is meant to be broken if the situation warrants it.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by pille on Monday July 11, 2016 @04:33AM (#12069667)
> there are laws saying banks cannot receive state aid > every rule is meant to be broken if the situation warrants it

Why did anyone bother with the rule in the first place then? Wasn't this exactly the kind of situation it was supposed to cover? It's not like an Italian financial crisis was off the radar when this rule got written.

> Does that really mean we should let a massive bank (or multiple banks) go bankrupt?

We've let pretty much everything else go bankrupt in the past eight years. Maybe we should try a it with a bank or two?

> Given the global financial system is so interconnected, only a fool...

That's exactly what the banks said last time to get their bailouts. I think only a fool would believe them again.

(edit: quotes/formatting)

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by charlesdm on Monday July 11, 2016 @05:08AM (#12069798)
1. What works for (relatively) small Cypriot banks will probably not work for larger system banks. The bail in rules worked well in part because the Cypriot banks held a lot of foreign, Russian deposits. If Deutsche goes bust.. winter is coming.

2. Bankruptcy will lead to local deposit funds having to reimburse €100,000 per person, per bank. Which will ultimately be paid for by the taxpayer. It might actually be cheaper for the taxpayer to just save the bank.

At least in Belgium, the government actually got quite a good return on the emergency funds they lent to the banks during the financial crisis. So we're looking at a possible return vs a certain loss.

I'm not saying all banks need to be bailed out, but it's only prudent to keep the option on the table if required. The world would be a different place if post Lehman governments would have let banks collapse.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by michaelt on Monday July 11, 2016 @11:11AM (#12071577)

  It might actually be cheaper for the taxpayer to just
  save the bank.
So, there are a few theories about why the financial crash happened:

Theory 1: The [banking system / market / bankers paid seven-figure salaries] actually had little to no understanding of what they were doing. Complicated derivative products and credit default swaps were mispriced because nobody really understands the maths and their risk models are all wrong.

This suggests, if we want to prevent the problem from recurring, the legislative intervention should be to either ban complex financial products or require much higher capital reserves for banks gambling on them.

Theory 2: The [banking system / market / bankers paid seven-figure salaries] had accurate models and understood the risks. They just decided they could go to the roulette table and put a trillion dollars on red, and the government would bail them out if the ball landed on black.

This suggests, if we want to prevent the problem from recurring, the legislative intervention should be to make bailouts radically less attractive for the people who benefit from such gambling. This could mean not providing bailouts, so banks that gamble and lose go bankrupt; or could involve some of the many other disincentives legislators have at their disposal.

If you follow this theory, and you adopt the policy that there will be no bailouts, you have to let the bank fail to prove to people that you really mean it.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by pille on Monday July 11, 2016 @06:00AM (#12069980)
1. ... If Deutsche goes bust.. winter is coming.

How, exactly? And if that's the case, isn't it already the failure that we're letting DB hold the world hostage?

The world would be a different place if post Lehman governments would have let banks collapse

Why does the solution to this scary, foreboding fate always revolve around making sure the bankers stay fabulously wealthy?

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by eli_gottlieb on Tuesday July 12, 2016 @07:44AM (#12078246)
>If Deutsche goes bust.. winter is coming.

For 90% of the world (ahaha), winter has already been here since 2008. It's about time the banks were exposed to the weather, I'd say.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by simonh on Monday July 11, 2016 @04:29AM (#12069648)
You manage a German bank. You follow strict capitalisation rules, are careful about the loans you make and operate your business according to the highest principles.

You clients start doing more and more of their business with an Italian bank that has poor capital reserves and a shoddy loan book and is losing money, but offers better terms to customers. The bank looks like it's going to fail, so the Italian government props it up with cheap credit and buys it's bad loans at above market rates so that it can stay in business - and keep winning business off you because it's still offering better terms to customers. Plus now those customers know the bank won't go bust and they can rely on it because the Italian government will support it no matter what.

The customer's business is being indirectly subsidised by the Italian government through below-market banking fees. Why should they ever do business with you again?

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by bonzini on Monday July 11, 2016 @04:41AM (#12069698)
> You manage a German bank. You follow strict capitalisation rules, are careful about the loans you make and operate your business according to the highest principles.

Like Deutsche Bank? They were chock-full of bad derivatives, Greek bonds, and whatnot.

Most of Italy's big banks are fine. They went just fine through the subprime crisis and the Greek bond crisis, and the government never had to save them.

It's the smaller banks that have problems.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by mrighele on Monday July 11, 2016 @04:44AM (#12069714)
How is this different from European governments buying Greek bonds held by German banks [1] ? (Banks from French and Italy got similar treatment, but German banks where the biggest lenders)

[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2012-05-23/merkel-sho...

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by Gmo on Monday July 11, 2016 @07:16AM (#12070264)
Except the German banks are not as clean as they would like you to believe, particularly the regional ones.
Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by adrianratnapala on Monday July 11, 2016 @08:27AM (#12070535)
I read simonh's comment explaining why German banks were not particularly clean. That is, within the eurozone (or any equivalently open financial realm) if one country is willing to subsidise bad loans, then banks from all round will need to pile in on the scam.
Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by vidarh on Monday July 11, 2016 @04:28AM (#12069644)
> Assuming the Brexit works for the UK, I am just waiting to see who's next.

Given that the indications so far is that the Brexit vote has made attitudes towards the EU far more positive so far, it'd need to be amazingly successful for the UK for anyone else to leave at this point, and I don't anyone here that don't expect it to be a massively painful experience, even if they voted to leave.

Re:Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis by sievebrain on Monday July 11, 2016 @04:52AM (#12069735)
The current poll shifts don't show an increase in 'positivity', they show a decline in people wanting to leave the EU. That's not quite the same thing.