There of course may be realities of the market to cause it to not work out this way, but it's a pretty sensible assumption.
EDIT: hullo's comment below would seem to contradict this; 32" TVs from Samsung seem like a fair data point to look at (albeit just one data pt), since it's a very mainstream manufacturer and a non-niche size.
"Picking a manufacturer (Samsung) and size (32") at random, I see the smart TV for $499 and non-smart options for 219, 269, 299. http://www.samsung.com/us/video/tvs/all-products Just for example."
They are more expensive than a best buy model. Not terribly so, however, otherwise the airport couldn't buy 200 of them.
They are incredible displays.
Just for example.
The Smart TV even without the "Smarts" are generally higher end TVs.
Though not indicated on the main screen the $299 option is actually a SmartTV if you click through. You have to get down to the $269 option to get to non-smart TV.
The difference between the $269 and $299 seems to be about the difference for putting a processor in a TV and making it smart....
(Note I don't make the claim that the SmartTVs are cheaper but for the most part its being absorbed in the cost of higher end devices so you get the Smarts "for free" on better sets)
The cheapest 50" TV they have is $799 has interactivity. http://www.lg.com/us/tvs
An assumption is reasonable if it follows logically from facts we know about the world to some conclusion. For example, cars with more features usually cost more than cars with fewer. A washing machine with a detergent dispenser and 11 different wash modes costs more than one with 3 modes and no dispenser. A thermostat that just sets the temperature and does nothing else will almost always be cheaper than one with wifi connectivity and a companion iOS app.
Based on that knowledge, its reasonable to assume that a TV with more features will cost more than one with fewer. This assumption is wrong of course, but it wasn't unreasonable.
So that means an assumption is unreasonable if there's no reason you'd make it in the first place.
Sure there is. 99% of everything else I've ever experienced in my life have had a positive correlation between features and price. I'm actually struggling right now to think of another product where—in general—more features are cheaper than fewer. Other than television sets, I cannot think of one right now. (Maybe if I spend some time on it, I can think of another) Therefore, knowing what I know about prices of things, it is totally reasonable to assume that TVs follow the pattern.
If you truly don't understand this distinction, then this whole conversation (indeed, this entire posting/thread) is hopelessly beyond your comprehension.
Thanks for confirming my suspicion; the fact that "it's a feature not a bug" is pretty unethical has nothing to do with whether it can successful or not. It's a useful logical tool to learn to distinguish "is" from "ought"; whether or not you think that Smart TVs are better than dumb TVs or not has no bearing on whether or not they're marketed as such and most importantly believed as such by the majority of consumers.
Hell it's not even one of the worst heuristics in play: (higher) price and popularity of a product as a heuristic for quality may be even worse than "more features" as a heuristic, and these two are extremely prevalent. And yet just because I don't like them doesn't mean I pretend that these tendencies simply don't exist.
And hell yeah you can prove it's not in there, either with a quick wireless scan or even a simple physical tear down of the housing which can then be put back together.
Show me a dumb TV that has been wired up to spy on people that has been in the wild before.
This is a 100% trash point. I have yet to see an unknown device on my network from a dumb screen, let alone any additional microphones or cameras on said dumb screen. I have also not seen or heard of any reports of it becoming a spying type device. You mean to tell me the dumb panel I bought, which is from a major manufacture with known tear downs and a ton of buyers, managed to sneak this hardware in (even something like a cellular radio) and nobody noticed?
I'll repeat this for you so you perhaps it will impact you this time: Show me a dumb TV that has been wired up to spy on people that has been in the wild before.
Please come equipped with citations, references, and examples before commenting.
You cannot show up to a thread, a demand that a negative be proven. That's not how that works, and the burden of proof is on you.
> Show me a unicorn.
If you're not going to be constructive here, just stop commenting.
Not if it isn't connected to a network. But its hardly as if devices with manufacturer-paid cellular connectivity built in and preconfigured don't exist, so there's no reason that it has to be your network.
To the extent that manufacturers are either monetizing networked services or deriving useful data from them, making them independent of end-user networking choices has a pretty clear benefit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it become a common thing in Smart TVs.
And if some manufacturer decides to clutter things, I just won't buy it. Problem solved.
This is getting well into ad absurdum (a common problem on HN). Smart TVs are perfectly fine for the person who doesn't want a smart TV. Just don't use any of the smart TV features and don't connect it to the network. Problem solved.
I just don't feel that anything relevant to the IoT is missing from my life. At all.
That's the real problem with the Internet of Things: most of the things we own are not all that useful when we're not in close proximity to them. Thus, not only are users and manufacturers unlikely to update them in the future; users are just as unlikely to connect the thing in the first place.
Home automation through things like light switches, etc. has a use case, but those products have been available and Internet-connected for over a decade and we still haven't seen wide adoption. I recently priced it out -- it would cost me over $5000 to swap out the outlets and switches in my house for Insteon devices. And that's just the hardware; not the electrician required to connect it all or the time I would spend configuring everything. Home builders aren't going to spend that kind of money building this into anything but the most high-end homes -- the IoT hardware alone blows through the fixtures and appliances budget that most home builders allocate.
People want systems that "just work". IoT does not "just work", and none of the current or announced implementations address the big problems around configuration (namely, every house is different so every implementation is custom). And in some cases like a stove or a refrigerator, any amount of configuration is going to be too much.
It worked OK for a while, but the setup was not robust and eventually some controllers would not work some devices at some times. The annoyance factor in going from 0 errors to a 1% error rate is HUGE.
Five years passed, and I have been slowly replacing all these X-10 devices with hard-wired switches or with Insteon. Of course, the original 1959 wiring paths (12 gauge Cu FTW) still work fine.
Now, when I see connected/automated homes in design mags, all that tech seems more like a long-term maintenance headache than a desirable feature. If I had an unlimited budget, I would not build those features in, I would just install conduit and run old-school copper wires through it.
My lessons: (1) The design life for a home is decades, the refresh rate for home automation devices is years; (2) Upgrading/tinkering is fun the first time -- but only the first time; (3) Your spouse hates it more than you do; (4) The existing device does one thing without fail, replacing it with a device that does more things but sometimes fails is not a net gain.
But prices need to come down, light output needs to go up (wireless bulbs seem to top out around 60W equivalent), and switches need to not be a $60 optional accessory (looking at you, Hue Tap). Controlling lighting with your phone is neat, only being able to control lighting with your phone sucks.
Long term, I'm sure I'll end up with more IoT devices. But it'll be because they got shoved down our throats and I didn't want to pay more to avoid new "features," not because I wanted a wireless microwave.
But I'm personally not convinced by IoT. Every implementation I've seen adds complexity without really improving functionality. I have a few Insteon switches in my house, but only in a few places where I need them (e.g. on the lights in front of my house so they can be turned on with a timer when I'm out of town).
I actually have a "connected refrigerator" made by Samsung. I tried for 5 minutes to get it set up before I gave up. I really couldn't think of what I would need to use a connected refrigerator for. IMO this is the usage model for the vast majority of IoT devices: if I, a major geek about this stuff, am not willing to spend more than 5 minutes setting it up, who actually cares enough to bother with any of it?
For example, good sleep is really important to me. So I used the Philips Hue bulbs and a NUC to build a smart home lighting system that behaves much more like daylight. When I describe it to people, quite a number really want it. Not bad enough to get my code off GitHub and install it, but they'd pay something extra for it. And I now see pre-packaged commercial products getting proposed, so I'm sure they'll have options.
The interesting thing happens when that cycle drives the costs a fair bit lower. Look at phones, for example. Smartphones were a weird, exotic thing. Then they were a high-end consumer thing. Now they're the default. A couple years back I went into a store looking for a cheap phone and asked for one without a web browser. The clerk looked puzzled and said, "Well, they all come with web access." I'm sure I could have ordered a dumbphone somehow, but it would have been harder and cost more.
So my question is: how much extra will you pay for your house not to be connected? Because that's the real test for me about where the IoT thing will end up.
The situation with your daylight system is a perfect example. People think "Oh, that's cool" but won't actually get off their ass and spend a few hours setting it up and configuring it to their liking. Unless it comes out of the box, it's a non-starter.
IoT devices as they are today require a systems integrator to come in and tie everything together and configure them. So your lighting system is integrated with a presence system that is also integrated with your thermostat. Each of these has to be configured on a case-by-case basis, because no two homes are alike. But if your products require an integrator, suddenly the integrator is your customer, and you begin sacrificing end-user focus for things that make the integrator's job easier.
And then you realize that the largest consumer of IoT platforms isn't consumers themselves, it's installers like ADT. Their focus is on selling simple products that require minimal support, not feature-rich ones. Why? Because users simply aren't interested in paying any amount of money for advanced features. Until that changes, IoT is going to be a niche hobbyist market. Even if it's built in to every device you buy, if it's not worth anything to you, you're not going to configure it in the first place.
But if you look at devices with cycles in between, I already see it happening. 10 years ago when I bought a stereo receiver, I bought something entirely dumb. Last year I replaced it and ended up with something that was internet connected. Not because I really cared, but because the equivalent model came with that. And in retrospect I'm glad; their phone/tablet app is a way better remote control than punching a bunch of mysterious, no-feedback buttons. The same thing happened with my DVD player; when the old one died I just bought whatever Consumer Reports recommended and it too is internet connected.
I think that you're right that the development of pluggable Android is what will push this forward. And Google clearly agrees; their project Brillo is surely one effort among many.
I've always thought that the reason for keeping Android as open source was to enable this use case. Eventually, Android-capable SOCs will come down to a very low price point, and for these use cases they don't need to push much more than a few kb per second. But it retains the advantage of having a development ecosystem that is well understood and widely available (you can't throw a rock in China or India without hitting an Android developer).
Neat. Did you try to coordinate room lighting color changes with computer screen colors controlled by fl.ux?
https://github.com/wpietri/sunrise
It's minimally sufficient for my needs, but I'd be glad to work with others to expand it.
And we're only worried about vendors going out of business because it's the early days and it's largely startups pushing the trend. With a Samsung or Apple, it's more that they'll quickly (by home equipment standards) stop supporting whatever doesn't stick to the wall.
There is a case to be made for self-contained objects that don't derive most of their value from an ecosystem, but work normally with no network. Work up from a toaster, not down from a computer.
Traditional hardware makers are going to have to factor the support of this software component into their prices now.
I will go out of my way to buy a dumb TV next time.
How? I don't see any dumb TVs for sale.
A dumb TV still has a TV tuner, so they aren't equivalent.
But unless you plan on plugging it directly into an antenna for OTA broadcasts, they are basically equivalent.
- TVs don't need anywhere near the same level of display quality. They are viewed from ten feet away and do not render small text, so they don't need as clear a picture. They also don't really have to go over 30fps, and latency is less of a concern. Basically, they have looser constraints in many ways, making them cheaper
- TVs have a plethora of inputs of many formats
- TVs have remote controls
But I doubt you could buy a 60" glass front monitor for the price they sell TVs :)
The impetus there was that LG changed its net-connected TV platform in 2011, and instantly dropped all support for older devices. One would think that a final update could remove that "coming soon" box from their proprietary added-feature screen, but they haven't even bothered to do that.
So I can watch NetFlix and YouTube on that device, but not Amazon instant video, or Crackle, or Crunchyroll, or Vimeo, or any of the dozens of selections available to better supported platforms. Having learned my lesson, and aware of the increasingly stalkerish behavior of "smart" televisions, my next TV purchase was very specifically a dumb screen. If I want an internet-connected service now, I use the Wii, or XBox, or the extended desktop from the nearest computer.
I will likely refuse to buy any network-enhanced appliance in the future, unless I am able to root/jailbreak it and install software without the manufacturer's stamp of approval. I probably wouldn't do much beyond installing ChillBox, or FridgeBSD, or CryogenMod, or whatever, but it feels like the possibility might keep them a little more honest. Because you know that refrigerator hackers would be capturing and picking apart every packet that thing sends out, quickly discovering that every time someone closes the door, it sends a tattle out to fridge-use.org about how long you stood there with the fridge door open, along with before-and-after photos of your food.
Though it would also be embarrassing if they marketed value models of a product line by disabling features in software/firmware, and some NetBSD-loving punks could come along and write a simple script that turns the doohickey that retails at $200 into the one that sells for $800.
So it's already too late for me. "Smart" appliances are just another low-capability computer that I will have to support as the in-home IT guy. And I will have to presume that they come pre-loaded with all manner of crapware and spyware. I would forever need to be checking on chipsets and revision numbers and compatibility lists. No thanks. It's hard enough managing the congestion on the home WiFi already.
A company doesn't have to be out of business to not do security updates; they can not do security updates starting day one. There was an article a while ago about tons of home router vendors with insecure software from a third party, where the third party had resolved security issues years ago but the vendors had never bothered to update, leaving hundreds of thousands of devices vulnerable over the last few years.
I'm surprised IoT conversations are still happening with Linux as a contender for the OS, let alone Windows.