sure, but there's the obvious counterfactual: if those engineers were scarcer, that level would likely be paid more

But it wouldn't result in more domestic workers being hired. Those companies would just have smaller workforces in the US and larger ones abroad.

Big Tech has hired functionally every domestic worker interested in and capable of doing the job. They pay so much already.

this is just not true. the market for new grads is extremely bad. Microsoft could easily invest in more early career people, instead they're hiring more senior H1-Bs.

You said it yourself. The market for new grads is bad. AI is better for senior employees than juniors. Visas don't affect this dynamic.

Bad market for new grads is overdetermined. AI, interest rates, etc.

But a contributing fact is flooding the tech market with H-1B visas spikes labor supply, kills workers' leverage and lets companies cheap out on salaries instead of bidding them up.

Yeah but those new grads are too uppity. We tried throwing money at them, but they're more interested in productivity destroying quality of life improvements.

The imported worker, on the other hand, is a more efficient and compliant machine. Maybe if we make those youths as poor as the workers we import, they'll eventually learn some gratitude.

Correct!

Employers benefit from regulations that exist to benefit employers. We should have completely open borders or actually do what's best for citizen workers.

Employers would have to pay more competitive wages if the candidate pool was smaller. Then there is the free legal services given to some workers and not others, that leaves less budget overall for compensation.

> sure, but there's the obvious counterfactual: if those engineers were scarcer, that level would likely be paid more

There's another option: without a sufficient workforce, the projects just happen somewhere else. Then the local market stagnates, and you end up with very little competition between employers. And the salaries go down to match.

This is not a conjecture. The European tech sector is experiencing exactly this phenomenon. Even in large tech companies, the salaries for the same positions are about 50-100% higher in the US.

How about the contractors working for Microsoft?

You can't work as a contractor on H1b. You need to be employed full-time.

They would be employed by another company, and contracted to Microsoft. This is the arrangement for the majority of H1-B employees in general, but I do not know if Microsoft does this.

Tech companies do not generally do this for their product teams, but may do it for their internal IT and reporting systems.

Microsoft does this. my friend an electrical engineer on an h1b worked for them this way. Microsoft contracted a 3rd party where my friend was employed.

and how much pressure do they feel to raise the band over time when theres a constant stream of people coming in form another country who accept anything presented because its still higher than back home