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Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by palmotea on Monday November 10, 2025 @02:21AM (#45873319)
> I'm of the opinion that things like shipbuilding don't really matter in times of war for countries with nuclear weapons. There would be dire consequences for anyone invading and/or blockading a nuclear armed country.

The flaw in that annoyingly common logic is 1) countries are very reluctant to use nuclear weapons, and 2) any kind of nuclear escalation is an instant loss for your own side.

I personally don't think any country would resort to nuclear weapons in the case of an invasion or blockade, and certainly not a democratic one [1]. They may threaten, but I don't think they'd actually put that gun to their own head and pull the trigger.

[1] An autocratic one may use them when the leader is close to defeat as one last "f*ck you", because he doesn't serve his people, they serve him.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by generic92034 on Monday November 10, 2025 @03:13AM (#45873649)
> because he doesn't serve his people, they serve him.

I am not convinced the current breed of politicians in (more or less) democratic countries sees that differently.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by varjag on Monday November 10, 2025 @06:34AM (#45874918)
Right, it's sometimes hard to see the difference with democracy and authoritarianism if you never experienced the latter.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by generic92034 on Monday November 10, 2025 @11:27AM (#45877578)
Oh, please do not assume I would not be able to see differences between democracy and authoritarianism. I only said I doubt that there are big differences between some of the views of the respective leaders regarding the populace.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by rhubarbtree on Monday November 10, 2025 @02:24AM (#45873342)
We may add to that - the UK’s nuclear deterrent is onboard submarines.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by jack_tripper on Monday November 10, 2025 @02:28AM (#45873369)
That's also my thinking that nullifies a lot of the discussion here. Like why would anyone start a naval beef with the UK, given the UK's nuclear submarine fleet?
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by XorNot on Monday November 10, 2025 @02:39AM (#45873435)
It's not about starting a direct conflict, it's that blockading it can be done at a distance rather easily.

If ships can't get to the UK, or the foreign shipyards reduced to rubble - or outbid - then it's more effective and cost efficient then any direct kinetic action.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by jack_tripper on Monday November 10, 2025 @03:21AM (#45873706)
Submarine fleets will torpedo your blockade. No need to fire nukes.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by gpderetta on Monday November 10, 2025 @05:12AM (#45874419)
My understanding is that the UK currently has 5 attack submarines. Is that enough to break a blockade?

More are planned (the SSN-AUKUS), but it is probably still some time away.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by jack_tripper on Monday November 10, 2025 @05:50AM (#45874640)
That's around 100 torpedoes loaded in the water. Is that enough to break a blockade?
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by nradov on Monday November 10, 2025 @12:25PM (#45878254)
No, it's not nearly enough. The exact number of weapons onboard is largely irrelevant. At any given time only about one third of a nation's attack submarines can be out on active patrol while the others are in transit, undergoing maintenance, or working up. During a crisis they can maybe surge two thirds of the force for a few months but that isn't sustainable. Each submarine can only be in one place at a time and they're likely to take some losses against a competent adversary.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by jack_tripper on Monday November 10, 2025 @01:26PM (#45879064)
That's why my money(figuratively) is on Kraken Roboticss and Anduril's autonomous robot submarines. This will be the future of naval warfare.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by nradov on Monday November 10, 2025 @01:43PM (#45879278)
That's so naive. Those robot submarines will be useful for local defense but they lack the range, speed, and staying power to project power and protect sea lines of communication over thousands of miles on a sustained basis. The notion of doing that with robots remains firmly in the realm of science fiction today. Maybe in 30 years.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by XorNot on Monday November 10, 2025 @06:28AM (#45874887)
And my point is it's not about a physical blockade.

If you buy your ships from half way around the world, then the shipyards can be destroyed before you get anywhere near them. And certainly now preventing that is politically commiting to a war on the other side of the planet which may not immediately effect you, but is likely to eventually.

But the other part is: you don't have to physically do anything. You could deny shipping to your opponent by someone just outbidding you for the output. Why not? You're already outsourcing so you're cost sensitive, and guaranteed volume is cat nip to manufacturers - no amount of strategic alliance wording is going to save you if an adversary reliably buys 10x as much.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by lb1lf on Monday November 10, 2025 @10:09AM (#45876698)
A blockade need not be enforced in situ.

Say, with satellite coverage to find out where any blockade runners are and a lot of cruise missiles you could enforce a blockade from a thousand miles away.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by mr_toad on Monday November 10, 2025 @04:04PM (#45880891)
That would be extremely difficult to defend against unless you have enough ships to defend every single convoy. WWII showed how helpless big surface ships were against u-boats in defending shipping.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by rusk on Monday November 10, 2025 @02:44AM (#45873468)
Nukes are useless as anything other than a self destruct mechanism. A gunman pointing at your head with himself in the line of fire.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by throwaway290 on Monday November 10, 2025 @04:10AM (#45874041)
Tell that to Ukraine!
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by rusk on Monday November 10, 2025 @05:14AM (#45874432)
Russia aren’t going to use nukes on their own doorstep. That’s a a NATO problem. It’s like openly knifing somebody in public repeatedly while holding the would be hero’s at bay with a gun. Yes this is an actual thing that happened in the UK about 10 years ago.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by scott_w on Monday November 10, 2025 @05:55AM (#45874684)
Um... Russia's doctrine during the Cold War was to turn Poland into a nuclear wasteland to stop Nato advancing through it. At the time, Poland was a part of the USSR.

What Russia considers "a buffer zone" is really "inferior peoples we can atomise without having to open a new conflict with a foreign power." To be clear, I use the term "inferior peoples" as seen from the Russian point of view.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by kelipso on Monday November 10, 2025 @09:35AM (#45876423)
Poland was part of the Warsaw Pact but it was never in the USSR.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by greedo on Monday November 10, 2025 @01:42PM (#45879266)
You've got it reversed...

Soviet doctrine (not Russian) was to use tactical nuclear weapons immediately during their attempt to invade West Germany and march to the Atlantic.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by scott_w on Monday November 10, 2025 @02:39PM (#45879950)
I’ve been looking and you are correct, though I do recall seeing something different, so perhaps what I read was misinterpreting the Seven Days to the Rhine plan.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by palmotea on Monday November 10, 2025 @11:57AM (#45877922)
> Edit: it's not about throwing nukes at each other... It's about having nukes that you can use if someone invades you.

Russia has nukes and got invaded (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_campaign), did it use them?

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by throwaway290 on Monday November 10, 2025 @12:45PM (#45878506)
having nukes doesn't mean when you invade a nuke-free country and it will just fall over for you. but not having nukes means a country with nukes can feel comfy invading you....
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by jack_tripper on Monday November 10, 2025 @03:20AM (#45873702)
Nuclear submarines as in nuclear propulsion submarines. And nukes are useful because you never need to fire them.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by rusk on Monday November 10, 2025 @05:11AM (#45874416)
That’s the point, and you’re in big trouble if that’s what you’re actually dependent upon is something you can’t use. Nukes are only for the other nukes. The bit of butter, so they say, Betty bought to make the bitter butter better.
Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by HPsquared on Monday November 10, 2025 @04:18AM (#45874104)
It's a lot of reliance placed on one rather complex system. See "Trident Missile Test Fails for Second Time in a Row" (Feb 2024)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68355395

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by greedo on Monday November 10, 2025 @01:40PM (#45879238)
Of all the current nuclear weapons delivery systems, Trident is probably the most reliable. Minuteman might be up there due to being a very very mature system, but I would take Trident in a heart beat.

https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2024/03...

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by DecoySalamander on Monday November 10, 2025 @04:58AM (#45874353)
> An autocratic one may use them when the leader is close to defeat as one last "f*ck you"

I don't think that could realistically work. The suicidal leader would need buy-in not only from the military command, but also from the numerous operators responsible for preparing and conducting the launches. Everyone involved would be presented wiath a choice between signing death sentenses for themselves and their loved ones or trying their luck with whatever enemy they were facing.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by vintermann on Monday November 10, 2025 @06:13AM (#45874798)
> An autocratic one may use them when the leader is close to defeat as one last "f*ck you", because he doesn't serve his people, they serve him.

Too bad it's hard to find a country which isn't autocratic by this standard in practice.

Re:How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry by mrguyorama on Monday November 10, 2025 @02:20PM (#45879700)
Even Putin did not fire nukes when Ukraine launched a fairly successful invasion of their soil.

US did not fire nukes during Korea or Vietnam despite several high up people wanting to repeatedly.

USSR did not fire nukes the several times they thought the US had launched. USSR did not fire the nukes during the Cuban Missile Crisis even though Fidel was adamant that they be allowed to sacrifice themselves to destroy the US.

Somehow, that generation was able to maintain a sober view of nuclear weapons. Even as Nixon himself drunkenly insisted we nuke most of the world, he was ignored.

As that generation has aged out, it seems like that respect may be going away. Trump wants to start detonating nukes again. There may be a genuine reason, like maybe we have lost confidence in our simulations and models to build new nukes and desperately need to build the next generation of deterrence, but maybe he's just a dumbass. China is going back to building a shitload of nukes, even though they had plenty. Geopolitical conflict is back on the menu the world over, and everyone is itching to claim some century old grievance to go beat up a neighbor. The Ukraine invasion and muffled response proves to everyone that if you don't have nukes, you are not going to be protected, while North Korea proves that if you do have nukes, you can do almost anything you want.

I think a nuke will be used this century in anger. I think the world will be too gunshy to respond adequately, or too split along some axis, and there will be geopolitical bickering about who is the bad guy for using N+1 nukes in a conflict.

We will have some great new video footage though.