- Product is not kickass. Hallucinations and cost limit its usefulness, and it's incinerating money. Prices are too high and need to go much higher to turn a profit.

- Their brand value is terrible. Many people loathe AI for what it's going to do for jobs, and the people who like it are just as happy to use CoPilot or Cursor or Gemini. Frontier models are mostly fungible to consumers. No one is brand-loyal to OpenAI.

- Many key employees have already left or been forced out.

> Product is not kickass

It might not be the best but people of whom you'd have never thought that they would use it, are using it. Many non technical people in my circle are all over it and they have never even heard of Claude. They also wouldn't understand why people would loathe AI because they simply don't understand those reasons.

Still, it burns money like nothing has in history.

My dad uses ChatGPT for some excel macros. He’s ~70, and not really into tech news. Same with my mom, but for more casual stuff. You’re underestimating how prevalent the usage is across “normies” who really don’t care about second order effects in terms of employment and etc.

I loathe AI for what it's doing the job market.

But I'd be stupid not to use it. It has made boilerplate work so much easier. It's even added an interesting element where I use it to brain storm.

Even most haters will end up using it.

I think eventually people will realize it's not replacing anyone directly and is really just a productivity multiplier. People were worried that email would remove jobs from the economy too.

I'm not convinced our general AIs are going to get much better than they are now. It feels like we're we are at with mobile phones.

> People were worried that email would remove jobs from the economy too.

And it did. Together with other technology, but yes:

https://archive.is/20200118212150/https://www.wsj.com/articl...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-vanishing-executive-assista...

> I loathe AI for what it's doing the job market.

To be fair, it's not doing anything to the job market, it's just being used as an excuse. Very few tech jobs have truly been replaced AI, it's just an easy excuse for layoffs due to recession/mismanagement etc.

It has affected graphic design and copy writing jobs quite a lot. Software engineering is still a high-barrier-entry job, so it'll take some time. But pressure is already here.

Sure sounds like the trillion dollar killer app needed for ROI.

> No one is brand-loyal to OpenAI.

Sam Altman is incredibly popular with young people on TikTok. He cured homework - mostly for free - and has a nice haircut. Videos of him driving his McLaren have comment sections in near total agreement that he deserves it.

> He cured homework - mostly for free

People argue about the damage COVID lockdowns did to education, but surely we're staring down the barrel of a bigger problem where people can go through school without ever having to think or work for themselves.

Not entirely sure what they meant but chatgpt and the likes have forced schools to stop relying on homework for grades and are instead shifting over to assignments done more as an mini exam, more work for the school, but you can't substitute your knowledge for chatgpt in such cases, you actually need to know to succeed.

Well, that may be, but it's entirely possible that this outlook might change.

In the worst case he's poisoned an entire generation. If ChatGPT doctors, architects and engineers are anything like ChatGPT "vibe-coders" we're fucked.

*Koenigsegg

Consumers may not be brand loyal, but companies are.

If you're doing deep deals with MSFT you're going to be strongly discouraged from using Gemini.

Microsoft isn't even loyal to OpenAI! You can use multiple models in Azure and CoPilot

Right but not Gemini.

Counterpoint, ChatGPT as a brand has insane mindshare and buy in. It is synonymous with LLMs/“aI” in the mind of many and has broken through like few brands before it. That ain’t nothing.

Counter-Counterpoint, I still feel investors priced in a bit more than that. Yahoo! Had major buy in as well and AGI believers were selling investors not just on the next Unicorn, but rather the next industry, AGI not being merely a Google in the 90s, but rather all of the internet and what that would become over the decades to this day. Anything less than delivering that, is not exactly what a large part of investors bought. But then again, any bubble has to burst someday.

> I’m not a big fan of OpenAI but this seems a little unfair. They have (or at least had) a pretty kick ass product. Great brand value too.

Even if you believe all that to be true, it in no way contradicts what you quoted or makes it unfair. Having a kick ass product and good brand awareness in no way correlates to being close to AGI.