This is a bit of a silly game, their stock is very meme-y so whenever you set the start of the time range the aggregate % can vary heavily.
We see it in our day-to-day lives. People aren't buying new cars. Cars on the road are getting older and older. Views of Tesla continue to dwindle. Anything Stellantis is on life support. I mean, Chrysler has literally one car. GM is clawing for any sort of relevancy. And Ford is only afloat because of toxic masculinity. We all know that it's bad in the US, and we know outside of the US it's 100x times worse for these companies. We also know the US car market as a market is getting overshadowed.
It doesn't matter what stupid investors think. We can see the writing on the wall. These investors are delusional, period.
a) sales internationally are plummeting at such a rapid pace
b) consumer confidence is down with predictions of a looming recession
c) the brand continues to be tarnished by the association with Musk and Trump
d) auto tariffs will increase the costs of parts and the likelihood of reciprocity
Meanwhile Elon is too busy rage-tweeting and K-holing to work on any of the things Tesla promised it would do this year, like release a model 2 or something with robots
On top of that, in the EV category, Tesla is pretty much the only one made in the US.
Remember that their current P/E ratio is ~134, so the stock price already has a ton of growth priced in.
That kind of growth would be difficult for a new entrant, but for an incumbent that's been around a while and already seeing sales decline, it's a pipe dream. Of course, it's not all about cars for Tesla. They're betting big on humanoid robots and "full self-driving", although they've been stuck at Level-2 self-driving for years and the robots, well... Let's just say we don't hear much about them for a reason.
Of course, Tesla has never been a company for rational investors. I used to hold a lot of Tesla stock back in 2017-19 when they had plenty of doubters. I remember seeing how Tesla owners would organize themselves grass-roots-style to show off their cars and convince others to go electric. The company was getting a ton of free marketing and had a very devoted customer base. My, how things have changed. Now, they have to shut down showrooms across the country due to "terrorism".
So where is the upside? Well, protectionism could help them in the US market, but they're a global company with stagnant sales in the US, so it's hard to see tariffs helping more than they'd hurt. And that's pretty much it for upside AFAICT.
Happy to hear from a bull that I'm wrong :)
Tesla (TSLA) Q1 delivery consensus: 377,000 EVs – worst performance in 2 years - https://electrek.co/2025/03/28/tesla-tsla-q1-delivery-consen... - March 28th, 2025
Tesla is banned from Canada EV rebate program, gov freezes suspicous $43 million in rebates - https://electrek.co/2025/03/25/tesla-banned-canada-ev-rebate... - March 25, 2025
Tesla sales fall by 49% in Europe even as the electric vehicle market grows - https://apnews.com/article/tesla-sales-recall-trump-byd-b6f5... - March 25, 2025
Tesla’s fall from grace may have no equal, says JPMorgan: ‘We struggle to think of anything analogous’ [$120 price target] - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-fall-grace-may-no-18005... - March 13, 2025
Tesla’s stock nosedives — wiping out $700B in gains since Trump’s election victory - https://nypost.com/2025/03/07/business/tesla-stock-drop-eras... - March 7, 2025
Australian Tesla sales plummet as owners rush to distance themselves from Elon Musk - https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/mar/06/australia... - March 6th, 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/ (1YR)
Facts you don't like aren't "weasel words."
By now, though, it's seeming more like they're too incompetent to do that. They'll probably still do it, but they'll crash the whole economy at the same time so the money that's flowing to Tesla won't be worth a whole lot. But it was a reasonable prediction at the time.
"Are you just mad he is a powerful bully?" Yeah my dude, that is the problem. If it is a crime to not like people who hurt others with their power, guilty as charged, unapologetically. Am I supposed to feel bad about that position? I do not.
[1] CoreWeave's Debut Dud Extends IPO Malaise Instead of Ending It - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43510363 - March 2025
All cruelty springs from weakness. —- Seneca
Tesla sales are falling worldwide and losing market share
I genuinely have no idea what he's done that's incredible. I don't even know what xAI does apart from being a chatbot inside of twitter.
Grok is now competitive with the other big players in the foundation model space. To do this they had to recruit some of the top AI talent, speed run the building of massive AI data centers and of course execute well to bring it all together.
All of their competition have either had a time and/or financial advantage over xAI so it's quite impressive what they've managed to achieve given this. Deepseek's achievement in this sense is more impressive so I'm not delusional, but I was still very surprised to see how good Grok 2 was.
That's basically the response to deepseek? Aside from a few people pearl clutching about "chinese propaganda" or whatever, most people praised its efficiency and performance on benchmarks. Credit where credit is due. Also note that China is an authoritarian regime where there's no separation between the state and private enterprise. Every company of non-negligible size has a CCP committee inside of it.
Elon Musk uses his immense wealth to cheat. He's infiltrated the government and uses his power to directly harm Americans, in order to further enrich himself. In addition, almost everyone who has worked for him has corroborated that he is an awful boss.
He is also prone to dishonesty. When confronted with something that requires accountability, his strategy is to protect his lies with newer lies. FSD, the state of twitter, DOGE, and on and on. He is so dishonest that it's almost always safer to assume he is lying than to give the benefit of the doubt.
But, even on a personal level, he struggles to stay afloat. He has impregnated multiple woman and is practically forming an army of illegitimate children. Those who were close to him either speak of him with extreme disdain or not at all. The only child he has any connection to is used as nothing more than a political pawn.
The only reason anyone even thinks he might be okay is because he's rich. We tend to have an extreme bias in favor of the wealthy, almost akin to a brainwashing. The reality is being rich does not correlate with being moral or decent. It doesn't correlate with being intelligent either, but that's a separate conversation.
What?