> If they were not paid because they were on "admin leave", does that look bad for Trump, or does that look bad for Congress?

It would be Trump/Elon.

Someone told me the details of how they could not pay people. It’s administrivia. It will go unnoticed by most just like how the twitter folks not getting paid went unnoticed by most.

> And who in a Republican Congress will want to do that anyway?

They give zero fucks about fucking over feds or former Feds, as they are (allegedly) all lazy and useless.

The end result will be less money spent (trivial, but still) and a lower head count moving forward.

The Republican rhetoric on this largely doesn’t jibe with reality.

Yes, there are underemployed people in the federal government (as exist in any large org). Identifying that slack and cutting it is not something that can be done with laser shots from space. They can only be done from the ground, imho. The current way they are doing things is going to end with a lot of unpleasant unintended consequences.

Unfortunately, a big part of the Republican playbook in the last decades has been to intentionally cripple government institutions so that they can then claim that the institutions are not working well and thus should be entirely dismantled. This is done either to remove institutions that are regulating business (currently happening with the CFPB) or to replace institutions which are helping people so that private companies can step in (one of the main reasons for attacking the ACA aka Obamacare).

The idea in Project 2025 is mostly to take this to a whole new level and apply it to the majority of the federal government.

It's not widely accepted by people on the right that "Project 2025" is the official playbook for the Republican party though?

Nothing looks bad to them, so it doesn't matter. Looking bad isn't a deterrent any more.

I don't think that's ever really been a problem for Trump. Everyone I talk to who supports him expects him to be a hail-mary grenade thrown into DC—a big middle finger to the powers that be. They feel completely disenfranchised and want a shake-up.

Amazingly, so far, it hasn't hurt his approval numbers.

> Amazingly, so far, it hasn't hurt his approval numbers.

He started with (I think) the lowest approval numbers in modern records so to an extent it was probably priced in from the outset.

If you believe the unreliable polls. He actually started higher than he did in his first term. His job approval is near the highest it has ever been. It is higher than 7/8 of Bidens term. See

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump...

The numbers are irrelevant. It is a second term presidency. What matters are the numbers for those facing reelection in less than a couple years. Even the burn down crowed don't want to remain on a wagon heading for a cliff in four years.

Given the levels of turmoil and also the levels of power grabbing, I think the president's approval ratings are very relevant.

For one, if they dip as low as they might given the expected economic hardship and the other cultural issues, you might start seeing rioting.

For another, I don't think it's a given this is Trump's final term. There already is a congressman trying to get in legislation to change the constitution to allow a third term. Even if that fails, the SCOTUS has already taken some egregious decisions in relation to Trump (full presidential immunity even for political assassinations) - what they might think they can get away with in the next four years is anyone's guess.

FWIW the constitutional amendment to enable a third term for Trump is guaranteed to fail. No matter how it is drafted, even if they do a convention, the ratification still requires 3/4 of state legislatures to vote in favor. And Republicans don't have 38 states. They won't have them even if every single state with split legislature goes full red.

I won't speculate on whether they could pass it. Democrats have been too sure of themselves for the last 7 or 8 months, and where has that gotten them? But whether it passes or not, he won't survive long enough. He's an old geezer, fat, and in poor health. Strong change he doesn't even make it to the halfway mark in this one.

Nothing ever looks bad for Trump. His followers will always make excuses for him. The latest is that Trump campaigned on “America First” and isolationism and now MAGAs are cheering his ideas of using American troops to take over the Gaza Strip and making it a tourist destination.

I guarantee Trump and his sycophants will just turn around and say they were lazy bums who wanted to get paid to do nothing, and the fact that this option was presented in the form of an early retirement offer will make exactly no difference.

You've gotta understand the dynamics of social media information warfare. Loyalty trumps any other considerations like factuality or consistency, people will denounce tomorrow what they championed today if need be. I've seen some pro posters who post contradictory responses to Trump or Musk statements and then just delete whichever one gets less positive engagement.