I don't know if China is fucked, but this reminded me of a map going around showing who in Latin America is trading more with: US or China [1]. In 2000, for everyone, it was the US. By 2023, for most it was China.

And one of the only hold-outs in South America is Colombia - a country Trump has already had a fight with. And with Trump's erratic tariff policies, I would imagine this trend would continue or accelerate.

[1] There's a few versions. here's one: https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1ibunc1/latin_amer...

all of latin America added up is only around 10% of US's consumer market size

China has a lot going for it. The right investments in green energy and EVs is maturing now, allowing them dominate basically 75% of the world market for energy production and vehicles (without local competitors). They are also making investments right now in AI and robotics that are already beginning to pay off. The US as a market doesn’t mean much to China anymore, and Trump’s aggressive treatment of enemies and allies alike are bound to push more countries into China’s corner.

Trump is basically dismantling the world-leading US’s influence and handing it over to China on a silver platter.

I don't buy this. They badly want into the US market for their EVs.

As well as their solar panels.

They wouldn't mind it, but Chinese EV & solar panel production volumes are already completely mind-boggling, they'll keep doing just fine without the US.

I don’t see our protectionism as a problem given their own, but there are plenty of countries who don’t want to import lots of oil and won’t mind buying Chinese EVs along with solar panels and wind turbines to achieve that. American simply isn’t the only consumer market anymore.

Personal attacks are not allowed on HN.

And the US might still be the biggest consumer market in the world right now, but margins are thin and a lot of companies have spent the last few months preparing for Trump's whims.

Also, you're completely ignoring his most important point, which is that even allies now think of the US as unreliable. As an ally, as a trading parter and as a market. Trump is 100% destroying very important international relations and China is the country that will profit the most.

I’m pro-common sense. The anti-Chinese crowd on HN is just as annoying and uninformed as the pro-Chinese crowd. China has access to the rest of the world, and Trump is helping out with pushing the rest of the world toward China. So what if the USA is the largest consumer market in the world? China can replace them with internal consumption and developing world markets that are rapidly growing. Have you visited Australia recently? They don’t give a rats ass about protecting their auto market (they don’t produce any anymore), so Chinese cars are taking over. And in Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, not to mention Africa. and definitely China is more interested in selling an EV to an African country than selling rubber dog poop to America. Moving up the value chain is a long sought goal for them anyways.

That vehicles make up 4% of their exports in 2024 is already telling because it was 0% only a few years ago. None of the clean tech was there a few years ago, they had no leadership in AI a few years ago, they weren’t producing fully mobile robots a few years ago. If you think they are stuck just because I’d a moribund real estate market and a demographic decline, well, I don’t see how that is even possible at this point.

Trump sh*tting on allies and enemies alike is more in china’s favor than the consumption they lose from the states. Even Mexico and Canada could get tired of the USA and just go full in with China if Trump pushes them too hard.

> .... and Trump is helping out with pushing the rest of the world toward China.

I am not sure about this one. Trump is pushing the rest of world to take side.

Panama, as displeased as it can be, choose to end the belt-and-road thing.

> China can replace them with internal consumption and developing world markets that are rapidly growing.

internal consumption: They tried. and kind of failed.

developing world markets: They are winning on this one, agreed.

From a French point of view, I feel that Trump is going for self-reliance of the "USA", Panama, Greenland, Canada would lower greatly in external reliance and control better several trading routes.

Add that https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-elon-musk-grandfathe... and you see who is actually leading today USA.

> China is fucked.

China will encounter economic headwinds, yes.

However china has a functioning and fairly flexible executive that is capable of making long term plans and executing them (see belt and road, debt trapping most of africa's ports and mines).

The US has a completely non-functioning legislature and an executive that is not in control of the president. The Executive does not have a plan past personal power grabs. When the president realises that he's been locked out of the mechanisms that control the executive, then all bets are off.