Frankly I'm worried that nothing will. We've botched using money to get large plants spun up here.

https://www.theverge.com/23030465/foxconn-lcd-factory-wiscon...

Is there a real appetite from the population for these jobs?

Direct cash injection is frequently the worst way to do this, so I don't think that failure is particularly indicative of a complete inability to achieve onshoring of manufacturing.

Tariffs certainly seem superior to me, especially if paired with tax cuts in other areas.

> Tariffs certainly seem superior

tariffs seems a roundabout way to try achieve something.

Why not directly invest in making manufacturing, if the US gov't wants that specific result? The US is deeply afraid of the idea of state owned companies, coz the past red scare have put off the idea.

Of course, private industry will cry foul - that they cannot compete on the wages that would've been needed to attract the workers, etc.

A sane industrial policy.

Could you clarify further? "Sane" is very subjectively defined.

I think you should not sell advanced industrial equipment, electronic parts and computers to everyone willing to pay because they can be used to produce things (including things that shoot, fly and explode). Sell only what can be used for entertainment, not for manufacturing.

For example, make an export version of GPU that has very poor precision and makes mistakes in calculations. Nobody notices if the pixels in a game are colored little wrong, but you cannot do science on such a GPU.

Also restrict export of scientific data. Keep monopoly on manufacturing things.

it sounds to me more insane to try dividing the world more.

The devaluation of dollar, this is the ultimate way

Let's say, if USD/CNY drops by 20%, the advantage of Chinese products will be erased, if USD/CNY drops by 50%, Chinese industry will be destroyed

Basically, this is the most important method the US used to counter the challenge of Japan in the 1980s.

Would this work well? I mean there are many implications in devaluing USD. Would this potentially lower USD demand as a reserve currency in other countries?

US "convinced" JP, DE, FR, UK to appreciate relative to USD during Plaza Accords in 80s, those countries still got to sell cars/strategic hightech in US, just less of it. US has less leverage to "convince" PRC who has more autonomy to set their dollar peg. US unlikely to allow PRC tech regardless... sanctions/export control and all. PRC fine with devalueing alone with US to keep chipping away at RoW shares. Also consider this means PRC GDP increasing by 20-50% nominal, i.e. surpassing US band, not just on PPP terms but absolute terms.

As you said, the players involved are different, but also the context of 2020's is much different than that of the 80's.

In the late 80's you had a crumbling USSR, a bunch of secondary markets slowly opening up to global trade, and a clear sole economic superpower prevailing.

Now things are a lot less clear. The US is speakig of tariffs (which is essentially restricting themselves from a lot of global trade) while China is more than willing to make trade deals left and right. They already have a large, educated, and skillful workforce.

Sanctions/Export control work to a point, presuming they can't build up their own capabilities and do their own agreements with other countries. It is something you can do well against minor players, not as well against other powerhouses.

> Would this potentially lower USD demand as a reserve currency in other countries?

We don't know, in the 80s, the devaluation of the USD did not weaken its position as the reserve currency, will it be same this time without USSR collapsing and Gulf War?

More importantly, will the PBOC cooperate with the US like the central banks of Japan and Germany did?

I don't know the answer, but I think it won't take too long to see the answer.

Tariffs are a 2-way street. It is very naive to presume the countries you raise tarrifs against will not enact similar tarriffs against you. And then they will do business with your competitors.

Except now you are limited to your local market, while the much larger and more dynamic global market will grow and evolve without you.