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Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by majormajor on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @03:42PM (#39696411)
> You don't sit on the train for an hour. In properly designed large cities the metro beats the car by a huge time margin unless they made cars so expensive by policy that nobody has a car and there is no traffic at that city as a result.

You should meet some of my old coworkers in large cities in Asia... (you don't SIT on the train at all in rush hour!)

In a smaller city it can work great! But in a small NA city, everything is a 5-to-10-minute drive from everything and everyone's also happy about that. That's easy mode. But London, NY, Paris, Beijing, etc - those are the cases that are somewhat broken everywhere, affordability-wise and commute-wise.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by wolverine876 on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @04:28PM (#39697031)
> In a smaller city it can work great!

The best transit is generally thought to be in NYC.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by cpursley on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @07:39PM (#39698913)
NYC city transit is shameful vs. even places like Moscow. Americans have no freaking idea.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by lo_zamoyski on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @05:13PM (#39697601)
In the US? Very likely. And given the status of NYC and the US in the world, even that is embarrassing.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by Empact on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:51PM (#39699417)
Fun fact: the vast majority of the NYC system was built between 1904 and 1940 when there were several competing subway companies. Since the subway companies were unified in 1940, essentially no new lines have been built.

The NYC Subway is a relic from a foregone age, from a time when we built things and wasn’t mired in bureaucracy and carbrained thinking.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_New_York_City...

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by wolverine876 on Thursday March 14, 2024 @12:42AM (#39700664)
They don't need many new lines, having already built them. They also haven't built many new bridges to Brooklyn in awhile nor midtown tunnels under the Hudson nor large parks in the center of Manhattan.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by yitianjian on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @03:55PM (#39696595)
The traffic in a medium sized NA city like Atlanta or Dallas can be a lot better than it is now, and it's definitely not comparable to Shanghai, London or Tokyo.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by majormajor on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @04:00PM (#39696648)
Do you have any examples in mind of 6-10M cities with stress-free comfortable commuting and affordable housing for all? Off the top of my head, but without a lot of first- or second-hand experience, Rome seems like the commute is probably a lot better than the larger cities, but my perception is that the affordability is pretty poor? Otherwise most of my experience is in larger or much smaller places.

Something that I think often makes this discussion tough is that there are a LOT of well-known historical European cities that are at under-2M population that I don't think Americans typically realize are THAT much smaller than, say, an Atlanta. I think the challenges of serving a growing city of 5M+ are much harder than a well-established old city of 2M.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by kiba on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @06:17PM (#39698260)
If you want stress free comfortable commuting, you're going to need to build an efficient way to move people.

Cars are not really an option when it comes to moving people en mass. It's just too low capacity.

Rome's metro system in particular is stymied by buried Roman artifacts and laws for archaeology. That's not really the worst thing, given that NYC subway construction cost are some of the highest in the world.

That said, I saw what Atlanta looks like. Aside from down Atlanta, a lot of Atlanta is literally just low rise, even downright suburban sometime. It's a smaller city than people thought, given that only half a million people lives within its border proper, but nonetheless traffic is somehow a nightmare.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by Retric on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @06:36PM (#39698428)
Internationally the statistics depend quite a bit on how the data is collected and aggregated, so do it's hard to international comparisons accurately.

I will say using US definitions, commute times are very sticky around the 30 minute time period. Longer commutes and people have a large incentive to move closer, short ones and they don't generally bother.

So in the US Tulusa Oklahoma population 400,000 (1M metro) has a 20 minute commute and NYC population 8,800,000 (20M metro) is 50% worse at 32 minutes average and ~100 cities between those extremes. https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/planes-trains-and-...

Edit: This suggests allowing people to move easily move around the metro area would meaningfully lower the need for transportation infrastructure. I suspect NYC has issues with people living in rent controlled apartments having long commutes but being unwilling to leave their cheap apartment, but don't have data backing it up.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by stouset on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @06:41PM (#39698465)
> Do you have any examples in mind of 6-10M cities with stress-free comfortable commuting and affordable housing for all?

“Do you have examples of cities that are literally utopia? No? Checkmate, urbanists!”

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by jltsiren on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @10:30PM (#39700041)
The big question is what counts as a city. American urban / metro areas around a central city are often large, because there are no other major cities nearby. A similar area in Europe may contain several independent cities. For example, if you take Atlanta with wide enough borders to get the population to 5+ million and drop it in the Netherlands, it will probably cover Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, and Utrecht.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by novok on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @03:45PM (#39696448)
In China right? You know they are the equivalent of people in LA who live so far away from their job and have 2 hour car commutes right?
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by majormajor on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @03:51PM (#39696529)
Not just in China. China is maybe the most interesting point of comparison with big cities in the US, though, since its cities are both much denser than most AND more sprawling than most.

And I don't follow your second question. If the trains OR freeways are full of people who can't afford to live closer to their jobs and have hours-long commutes, isn't that bad? And if it can happen even with extensive public transit, what does that tell us about fundamental assumptions about "city should grow forever, number must always go up!"?

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by oceanplexian on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @11:45PM (#39700402)
China isn't even remotely comparable to the USA.

The urban mega cities are a prop that the CCP puts on display for the world. There's a reason that China's GDP-per-capita lands somewhere between Kazakhstan and Cuba.I would know because I've been there. If you go to a random exurban part of China you're going to find people living in makeshift tin structures, a lack of running water, oxcarts used as serious transportation, and a society that is functionally in the 1930s.

The CCP are masters of propaganda though, and flood Youtube and social media with influencers riding around on maglev trains and showing off new airports and architecture. Even on American Social Media, if you look for videos of "The Real China", or "Chinese Poverty" you'll get carefully curated propaganda that does not line up with what I saw first hand.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by nradov on Thursday March 14, 2024 @12:06AM (#39700512)
The SerpentZA YouTube channel is somewhat sensationalist, but it has good firsthand videos showing the real China from someone who lived there for years and is fluent in Mandarin. The reality is a lot darker than what most Westerners see.

https://www.youtube.com/@serpentza

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by kurthr on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @04:23PM (#39696968)
China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan... I can break it down by city, but the idea that people don't commute more than an hour in any of these places is pretty laughable. HK is a bit better, because it's so small, but unless you're really wealthy or willing to live with your family in 100m2 even that is challenging. It's not that there aren't places to live (eg in Tokyo), but most people with a family and moderate incomes would rather live outside the city, and that means long commutes, standing during rush hours.

I once had a commute longer than 15min in Silicon Valley and decided I'd never do it again.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by mlsu on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @06:39PM (#39698450)
We only have 2 cities in the United States that even approach a "medium sized" Asian metro in population. Los Angeles and NYC. Only NYC has a usable public transit system.

This is actually an argument for transit systems. Los Angeles, San Francisco/San Jose, Dallas, Phoenix -- could be (and should be) a global metropolises, with a populations and cultural relevance rivaling Tokyo or Hong Kong. They would be, if not for the car. There are people who commute daily from the suburbs of Stockton to the SF bay area.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by zamfi on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @07:20PM (#39698743)
> Los Angeles, San Francisco/San Jose, Dallas, Phoenix -- could be (and should be) a global metropolises

Yes!

> with a populations and cultural relevance rivaling Tokyo or Hong Kong.

YES!

> They would be, if not for the car.

...what?

They are not because their local governments prohibit construction and actively oppose growth, which is only vaguely related to the car. Approximately zero "global metropolises" have single-family zoning in 95% of their inner core land area. Not "have single family homes", sure maybe Tokyo has that. But zoning that prohibits denser development in such a way that most (yes, most) current housing in those areas is too dense to be built today under current rules. (This last part is true even of NYC.)

The US went hardcore anti-density in the 70s. And sure, that has something to do with the car.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by mlsu on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:07PM (#39699105)
I think we agree. But the car is a much bigger part of it than you're letting on.

The reason we zone this way is because people are unable to imagine their lives without being able to drive around. The very first thing people say in my town when an apartment tower goes up is "where am I going to park? Do they have a plan for moving the parking spots that this tower displaced? Traffic on tower St. is going to get so much worse!"

If the expectation is that everyone owns a car, upzoning is a huge problem -- it actually is, because everything that scares a car brain ("I can't park!" "It's going to be loud!" "This will increase traffic!") is actually true. Rather than limiting cars, of course, we choose to limit zoning. Which is actually quite a logical thing to do if everyone is to own a car.

If you get rid of cars you get rid of collectors, arterials, onramps and offramps, turn lanes, parking spots... Those are things that are fundamentally incompatible with a major, dense, vibrant city. You can easily fit 50,000 people, their workplaces, senior care homes, schools, and restaurants into the land area of a 4 way cloverleaf that is designed to service 50,000 round trip commutes by car.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by snapplebobapple on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:44PM (#39699362)
It's not even the car that is the problem. It's the lack of viable alternatives to the car. In my city in North America there are almost 1.5 million people, I live about 4 kms from the city center and it's extremely uncomfortable without a car, even though I live on multiple bus and one LRT line within ten minutes of walking. I purposefully bought and built where I am because of all this connectivity, maybe 5 % of the whole city has it as good as I do, the rest have it worse to much worse. I basically live in the best situation in the city for alternatives and it's worse than the crappiest parts of the city for alternative sin places like the Netherlands.

To make alternatives you can look at what the Netherlands does. They have much more relaxed lot coverage, height limits, parking requirements, etc. so they get the same single family square footage in way less geographic area and they intermix that with much higher density so their cities proper are 3-4 times denser than where I live while not feeling cramped. They didn't get rid of the car, what they did do was ensure people had great walking, biking and transit options to fulfill the normal trips that make up their lives. That is vs where I live where I am fine getting downtown with transit, but to my kids schools, groceries, or any other workplace outside of the core, I am screwed. The extra density makes providing these transit options possible (along with reasonable regulation on other areas leading to reasonable density)

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by zamfi on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @11:03PM (#39700188)
Yeah, all this is the stated argument here.

But in the US, at least, the underlying argument is about class, and race. If you haven't already, it might be worth reading about redlining, the historical practice of outlining which neighborhoods were "safe" to issue mortgage loans in because they were white and not at risk of non-whites moving in. This was about race, primarily.

Redlining became illegal starting in the '70s in many places, and its replacement was exclusionary zoning---a practice that continues to this day that relies instead on race's strong correlate, wealth. Apartments and other similar higher-density arrangements are much more affordable--and as a result, accessible to racial minorities (and the crime, etc. that racial minorities were "associated" with).

All the modern arguments around traffic jams, neighborhood character, transit, etc.---these are all modern-day variants of the same old arguments, because again, who can afford a 1:1 ratio of cars to people-in-household to get around the low-density suburbs?

So when you hear people say "I can't park! It'll be loud!" consider if they're really saying "I don't want those other people who rely on transit in my neighborhood", but using the words "there won't be room for me to park!"

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by hparadiz on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @11:13PM (#39700250)
The idea that if you remove cars from 90% of the population that you won't sometimes need to drive something into these areas is laughable. Even Tokyo has roads.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by mlsu on Thursday March 14, 2024 @02:27AM (#39701068)
Tokyo has roads, but household car ownership is 41% prefecture wide; that's well under 1car:1person. In inner city, it is probably close or above 90%. That inner city traffic is pretty much taxis and commercial vehicles. The same is true of any place which is properly built-up with options to get around. Manhattan is another good example: 20% car ownership. In a 2 person household, that's your 90% number!

Building subways is impossible for no good reason nowadays. But it's quite easy to put light rail, bike lanes, and BRT in. People find a way to get around.

You don't need to take cars by force; you just need to let market forces do it. That starts with getting rid of parking, setbacks, and exclusionary zoning requirements for new development in areas of town that are underdeveloped (it's not hard to find these areas in even medium sized American cities). If people really do want cars in those built-up areas, they will rent a monthly space. It's a funny thing though, people seem to re-evaluate how valuable a car is once they have to pay $400/mo for a parking space.

If what you say is true, and everyone truly must have a car, rents will fall in those areas to compensate (developers, not having to deal with onerous parking and setback requirements, still turn a profit). In practice, this does not happen, because places without cars are nice places to live. They appreciate and attract investment, which puts money in the city coffer to improve transit options.

It does not take much land to do this. An area the size of 10,000 single family homes -- often a single neighborhood. In San Diego that's Midway, in SF it's Berkeley and the Sunset, in NYC it's Staten Island. These places all have developers who will break ground in months on collectively hundreds of thousands of new housing units if they are allowed to do it and earn a profit.

It is not fundamentally hard to do this, at all, if you can picture in your mind a human being not owning a car.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by nine_k on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @07:41PM (#39698932)
In the 1970s, beside the prevalence of cars, there were two more factors hollowing out cities: "white flight" and the fear of a nuclear war. A nuke hitting Manhattan would certainly affect more people that a nuke hitting some suburbia, and why would a nuke be targeted there in the first place?

The fear was real :(

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by LunaSea on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @07:33PM (#39698856)
You described hell.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by mlsu on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:18PM (#39699184)
If Tokyo is hell why did so many people choose to move there?
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by decafninja on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @09:38PM (#39699755)
You cannot replicate the Tokyo (or Seoul, or Taipei, or Singapore, or Hong Kong) model in the US without making certain societal choices that are either impossible or unpalatable here. We will never have anything remotely as nice as the Tokyo transit system for that reason.

I love taking the Tokyo subways whenever I visit. I make it a point to avoid the NYC subway if at all possible.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by hparadiz on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @11:15PM (#39700258)
People get so mad but this is the 100% truth.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by decafninja on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @11:20PM (#39700288)
And by “impossible or unpalatable choices”, I’m not referring anything to do with cars.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by LunaSea on Thursday March 14, 2024 @02:18AM (#39701030)
Because that's where work is?

It's always the same answer.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by nradov on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @07:10PM (#39698678)
Most people who currently live in San Francisco/San Jose don't particularly want to turn it into a global metropolis and don't give a damn about abstract concepts like "cultural relevance". Cultural elitists should have some humility and not presume that they know best.

Another option would be to set policies that encourage greater economic development and job growth in Stockton so that residents aren't forced to commute long distances. There's nothing special about the SF Bay Area: it's just another place.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by bobthepanda on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @07:16PM (#39698706)
The Los Angeles example pretty much proves that spinning out employment into multiple areas does not mean people will just move to the closest area to their job; it just adds another destination to the list of "places people drive an hour to."

It is not really that people living in Stockton already are commuting into the Bay, but Bay Area workers are being displaced into Stockton. The Bay Area has added more jobs than housing for a while now.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by mjevans on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:33PM (#39699279)
LA _could_ be much more like Tokyo if USA cared to make mass transit work.

    # Service accurate enough to set a clock by.
    # Service mesh that provides walk-able freedom.
    # Safety and cleanliness (both a culture and enforcement issue)
Yes, there would need to be a slight increase in density as well as much more transit service; but that metro area could scale up were there enough water.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by bobthepanda on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:42PM (#39699341)
Sure. But Tokyo is also everywhere to everywhere with multiple city centers.

My main point is that “move the jobs” in a sufficiently large city is not generally a working way to reduce commute times.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by mlsu on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:17PM (#39699170)
Most people move to the Bay to get a good job, which is only possible in a large, vibrant, globally connected city. Everyone -- every single person -- who buys or rents a house in the SF bay today does so because they either have or want have "a good job." Is there a single person alive who has bought a house on the peninsula recently because it's a quiet place where nothing much happens?

The Bay Area is extremely special. It's the only place to go to get a good job! There are probably 500,000 people who would move in next week if we had the apartments to house them. That is absolutely not true of Stockton.

Someone who commutes to SF from Stockton isn't a resident of Stockton. They're a resident of SF who is priced out!

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by nradov on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @09:54PM (#39699857)
Are you being sarcastic or do you actually believe that nonsense? There are a huge number of places outside the SF Bay Area that have good jobs available. Lots of openings in North Dakota for good oil and gas production jobs. Plenty of high paying work in Cleveland for anyone with healthcare skills. The list goes on and on.

Personally I wouldn't want to live in SF proper even if it was cheap. Most of the city is kind of a shithole and the governance is atrocious in a way that goes far beyond just failed housing policies.

Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by throwaway2037 on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:59PM (#39699491)
You forgot Chicago.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by handojin on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @10:23PM (#39699999)
It's easy to do that.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by avar on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:04PM (#39699083)

    > you don't SIT on the train
    > at all in rush hour!
The horror!
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by theendisney on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @08:31PM (#39699270)
Imagine the travelers all sitting in large cars and you have a good picture of how much space that consumes.
Re:Mass Timber Is Great, but It Will Not Solve the Housing S... by fuzztester on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @09:21PM (#39699638)
>You should meet some of my old coworkers in large cities in Asia... (you don't SIT on the train at all in rush hour!)

Tokyo (I heard)

Mumbai