No, it wouldn't.
NATO deciding it was willing to piss off Russia (which is why, without those active conflicts, Ukraine and Georgia were denied MAPs in 2008) would allow NATO membership. There's no actual rule that would prevent Ukraine from joining during the invasion (and even if there was, any NATO rule can be changed, either in a general way or to add a sui generis exception, by the same group -- all NATO members agreeing together -- required to admit a new member under the existing rule, so the rule would not actually be an additional barrier.)
"But," you might object, "even if there is not a rule preventing it, Ukraine joining while the Russian invasion continues would be impractical because it would immediately trigger Article 5, as long as Russian forces were engaging Ukrainian forces anywhere in the country, or even occupying any part of the country."
That could be managed, though, by admitting Ukraine while adopting either a general (for later review) or temporary with explicit time limits or other terminating conditions exclusion of some parts of its territory from Article 5 (not all the territory of all NATO members is covered by Article 5 now.)
Ukraines problems are logistical and attrition and they have very strong NATO support. The red lines about prodding Russia will still exist and the supply shortages across the EU will as well.
Joining NATO makes sense in peace time and so diplomats can hang out at conferences and get formally connected to intelligence data. But how different is that to the data feeds Ukraine gets today?
Depends on the terms.
If, say, Article 5 excluded defined territories whose control was actively contested at the time or which were occupied by Russia with an explicit time limit, and applied fully to the rest of the country (including places Russia likes to lob missiles but cannot yet effectively contest for control of), that would pretty substantially change the Russian calculus of the war.
And especially if it also came with the kind of forward deployment (to the covered part of Ukraine) of NATO troops made to other eastern-flank countries, it would free up Ukrainian forces to deal with the contested and currently-occupied areas.
For example, fostering trade of military goods and technologies between members (especially for the USA as a major exporter) and smoothing out their national budgeting since it's kind of like buying insurance.
2008 is not 2024.
According to NDI(Movember 2023): 42% say that Ukraine should engage in negotiations, but 84% do not find it acceptable to end the war if it means letting Russia have the territory it controls currently. Even if Russia leaves all territory occupied since the 2022 invasion, 73% won't agree to such peace deal, they want pre-2014 borders. https://www.ndi.org/publications/opportunities-and-challenge...
If there are any newer poll results, please share.
https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1372&page=2
Have a look at the Graph 9 and 10 about their openness to negotiations.
1. It suggests that there's a distinct objective/legalistic blocker to Ukraine's membership, when in reality the bar is "whatever existing NATO members want."
2. Even if #1 and Ukraine tried it, the benchmark is fundamentally unfair/unrealistic/unworkable. In this particular case, Putin would instantly declare-ownership over more Ukrainian territory, over and over, indefinitely.
If anything it's the opposite: There's no point trying to avoid provoking Putin because he's a dishonest actor and has/will feign a grievance for any reason that benefits him. Conciliatory gestures won't be reciprocated.
Even if that meant that NATO would be in direct conflict with Russia, then it would be solved between NATO and Russia.
>2. Even if #1 and Ukraine tried it, the benchmark is fundamentally unfair/unrealistic/unworkable. In this particular case, Putin would instantly declare-ownership over more Ukrainian territory, over and over, indefinitely.
If sovereign countries' security depends on what delusional dictators write on a piece of paper, then this isn't much of a world worth living in.
Long story short, Putin can claim whatever it wants, in the eyes of the UN, Ukraine has its 1991 borders and that's where they should remain no matter what - even if it means a direct conflict with NATO. Enough with this bluff bullsht.
Are Russians, who live in one of the largest countries in the world filled with resources, going to commit collective suicide because of Ukraine?
And flagrantly violating every agreement that has ever been made w/r/t Ukraine. And killing political opposition with impunity. And giving medals to every soldier in the units stationed in Bucha a few days after of the massacres were uncovered. And "annexing" regions of Ukraine where your soldiers haven't even reached, and putting them on official maps of Russia.
And using chemical and radiological weapons to conduct assassinations on UK soil. And blowing up Czech ammo depots.
And telling the world that if there were any Russian soldiers amongst the "little green men", they were merely on vacation.
And this trash: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60562240.
There's a reason non-western aligned countries are a bunch of corrupt shitholes, they want more serfs to do their bidding and the west is showing their population what their life could be and ruining their plans.
Study the outrage in the USA when Russia put nuclear missiles in Cuba, when Cuba, a sovereign country asked for those missiles (aka The Cuban Missile Crisis). Substitute Cuba for Ukraine and USA for Russia and you will be begin to understand the Russian point of view. But hey the West is Right, We are the Good Guys, always on the side of Freedom and Democracy so we can't be wrong. Just ask the Palestinians in Gaza.
You haven't considered the consequences of folding to nuclear blackmail. That increases the chances bad actors will use nuclear blackmail again (because you've shown it works), and it increases nuclear proliferation because small states start feeling unsafe if larger states refuse to help them defend themselves out of fear.
He has threatened Sweden directly with nukes if we ever tried to join Nato for instance.
And even then, Putin has no limits. We cannot continue to put red lines and limits on ourselves when the opponent doesn't have any.
Also Russia: "NATO pinky promised in a discussion between two people no one remembers that it wouldn't expand East, so we're invading Ukraine and threatening you with nuclear war"
My heart goes out to the Ukrainians, who are fighting determinedly not to be liquidated by Putin's mafia state. But the Dick Cheneys of the world couldn't be happier that Putin decided to invade.