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Re:Intel's Humbling by this_user on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @08:20PM (#39198486)
Intel has truly been on a remarkable spree of extremely poor strategic decisions for the last 20 years or so. Missed the boat on mobile, missed the boat on GPUs and AI, focused too much on desktop, and now AMD and ARM-based chips are eating their lunch in the data centre area.
Re:Intel's Humbling by danielmarkbruce on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @08:32PM (#39198580)
They ran it for max profit in an era when strategic investments needed to be made.

It's remarkably common and heavily incentivized.

Re:Intel's Humbling by ternaryoperator on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @09:03PM (#39198813)
You're missing the big one: they missed the boat on 64-bits. It was only because they had a licensing agreement in place with AMD that they were able to wholesale adopt AMD's extensions to deliver 64-bit x86 processors.
Re:Intel's Humbling by FullyFunctional on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @11:40PM (#39200001)
That's not at all what happened. Intel's 64-bit story was EPIC/IA-64/Itanium and it was an attempt to gain monopoly and keep x86 for the low-end. AMD64 and Itanic derailed that idea so completely that Intel was forced by Microsoft to adopt the AMD64 ISA. Microsoft refused to port to yet-another incompatible ISA.

Had Itanium been a success then Intel would have crushed the competition (however it did succeed in killing Alpha, SPARC, and workstation MIPS).

Re:Intel's Humbling by mgerdts on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @12:22AM (#39200277)
I don’t think it was Itanium that killed SPARC. On workstations it was improved reliability of Windows and to some extent Linux. Sun tried to combat this with lower cost systems like the Ultra 5, Ultra 10, and Blade 100. Sun fanatics dismissed these systems because they were to PC like. PC fanatics saw them as overpriced and unfamiliar. With academic pricing, a $3500 Ultra 10 with 512 MB of RAM and an awful IDE drive ran circles around a $10000 HP C180 with 128 MB of RAM and an OK SCSI drive because the Sun never had to hit swap. I think Dell and HP x86 PC workstations with similar specs as the Ultra 10 were a bit cheaper.

On servers, 32 bit x86 was doing wonders for small workloads. AMD64 quickly chipped away at the places where 1-4 processor SPARC would have previously been used.

Re:Intel's Humbling by FullyFunctional on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @02:02AM (#39200869)
Fair point, Itanium's impact on SPARC might be less than I stated, but Alpha is very clearly documented.
Re:Intel's Humbling by silvestrov on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @04:17AM (#39201704)
I think that Itanium had zero impact on anything (besides draining Intel for money) due to high cost and low performance.

It could not run x86 apps faster than x86 cpus, so it didn't compete in the MS Windows world. Itanium was a headache for compiler writers as it was very difficult to optimize for, so it was difficult to get good performance out of Itanium and difficult to emulate x86.

Itanium was introduced after the dot-com crash, so the marked was flooded with cheap slightly used SPARC systems, putting even more pressure on price.

This is unlike when Apple introduced Macs with PowerPC cpus: they had much higher performance than the 68040 cpu they replaced. PowerPC was price competetive and easy to write optimizing compilers for.

Re:Intel's Humbling by panick21_ on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @05:27AM (#39202118)
Itanium itself did nothing. But Itanium announcement killed basically killed MIPS, Alpha and PA-RISC. Why invest money into MIPS and Alpha when Intanium is gone come out and destroy everything with its superior performance.

So ironically announcing Itanium was genius, but then they should have just canceled it.

Re:Intel's Humbling by xenadu02 on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @07:47AM (#39203115)
Microsoft did port to Itanium. Customers just didn't buy the chips. They were expensive, the supposed speed gains from "smarter compilers" never materialized, and their support for x86 emulation was dog slow (both hardware and later software).

No one wanted Itanium. It was another political project designed to take the wind out of HP and Sun's sails, with the bonus that it would cut off access to AMD.

Meanwhile AMD released AMD64 (aka x86-64) and customers started buying it in droves. Eventually Intel was forced to admit defeat and adopt AMD64. That was possible because of the long-standing cross-licensing agreement between the two companies that gave AMD rights to x86 way back when nearly all CPUs had to have "second source" vendors. FWIW Intel felt butt-hurt at the time, thinking the chips AMD had to offer (like I/O controllers) weren't nearly as valuable as Intel's CPUs. But a few decades later the agreement ended up doing well for Intel. At one point Intel made some noise about suing AMD for something or another (AVX?) but someone in their legal department quickly got rid of whoever proposed nonsense like that because all current Intel 64-bit CPUs rely on the AMD license.

Re:Intel's Humbling by FullyFunctional on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @10:00AM (#39204562)
Maybe I wasn’t clear; I meant after Itanium failed, Microsoft refused to support yet another 64-bit extention of x86 as they already had AMD64/x64 (and IA-64 obviously)
Re:Intel's Humbling by oldgradstudent on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @10:56PM (#39199681)
They didn't simply miss the boat on 64 bit.

That was an intentional act to force customers into Itanium, which was 64 bit from the outset.

Re:Intel's Humbling by RachelF on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @08:33PM (#39198586)
No, they were on the boat, they just mis-managed it. They used to make Arm chips, but sold it off just before the first iPhone was released as they saw no future in mobile CPUs. Same with network processors for routers around the same time.

They have been trying half-heartedly with GPUs on and off since the late 1990's i740 series.

The root cause is probably the management mantra "focus on core competencies". They had an effective monopoly on fast CPUs from 2007 until 2018. This monopoly meant very little improvement in CPU speed.

Re:Intel's Humbling by megablast on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @11:43PM (#39200023)
This is so common that it happens all the time with successful companies. They don't have to make good decisions. They have more than enough cash to keep making bad decision after bad decision, whereas a smaller company would collapse.

Apple and Microsoft have both managed to avoid this, and been the exception.

Re:Intel's Humbling by whalesalad on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @09:11PM (#39198870)
They still dominate PC’s and the server market.
Re:Intel's Humbling by danielmarkbruce on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @11:00PM (#39199712)
The trend ain't their friend in those markets though. Many folks running server workloads on ARM and their customer base is drastically more concentrated and powerful than it once was. Apple has shown the way forward on PC chips.

They are a dead company walking.

Re:Intel's Humbling by whalesalad on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @09:34AM (#39204249)
Very hyperbolic take. I agree there is serious competition elsewhere, but "dead company walking" is far from true.
Re:Intel's Humbling by danielmarkbruce on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @09:55AM (#39204504)
Time will tell. It's not meant to be hyperbolic - I'm short them and lots of others are and expect it will be a disaster going forward. There are obviously people on the other side of that trade with different expectations, so we will see.
Re:Intel's Humbling by djha-skin on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @09:22PM (#39198971)
I run all my workloads in AWS on armchips. It's half the cost for just as good of an experience on my side.
Re:Intel's Humbling by paulmd on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @01:24AM (#39200640)
Cloud providers are very careful to make sure of that - they have deliberately eschewed performance increases that are possible (and have occurred in the consumer market) in favor of keeping the “1 vcpu = 1 sandy bridge core” equivalence. The latest trend is those “dense cores” - what a shocking coincidence that it’s once again sandy bridge performance, and you just get more of them.

They don’t want to be selling faster x86 CPUs in the cloud, they want you to buy more vcpu units instead, and they want those units to be arm. And that’s how they’ve structured their offerings. It’s not the limit of what’s possible, just what is currently the most profitable approach for Amazon and google.

Re:Intel's Humbling by makeitdouble on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @02:25AM (#39201033)
Looking at Statistica [0] I see Intel at 62% and AMD at 35% on desktop for 23Q2. That's a significant gap, and having more than half of the market is nothing to sneeze at, but I think they move from being dominant to just being a major player.

IF (big IF) the trend continues we might see Intel and AMD get pretty close, and a lot more comptetion on the market again (I hope)

On the server side, I don't have the number but that's probably a way harder turf to protect for Intel going forward, if they're even still ahead ?

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/735904/worldwide-x86-int...

Re:Intel's Humbling by B1FF_PSUVM on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @08:39PM (#39198637)
And the manufacturing failed to save them:

[...] when Intel’s manufacturing prowess hit a wall Intel’s designs were exposed. Gelsinger told me: 'So all of a sudden, as Warren Buffet says, “You don’t know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out.” [...]'

Re:Intel's Humbling by Mistletoe on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @08:39PM (#39198632)
Is it just the fate of large successful companies? The parallels with Boeing always come to mind. We’ve seen this play out so many times through history, it’s why investing in the top companies of your era is a terrible idea.

https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_archive/f...

I wonder how many of our companies will survive at the top for even 20 more years?

https://companiesmarketcap.com/

Berkshire is the only one I feel sure about because they hold lots of different companies.

Re:Intel's Humbling by tru3_power on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @08:57PM (#39198773)
Market forces are hard to fight sometimes. Look at Meta- they were beaten like hell cuz of their metaverse bet.
Re:Intel's Humbling by HDThoreaun on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @11:56PM (#39200116)
Meta was beaten because investors were worried Mark had gone rogue. Now that hes laid a bunch of people off to show that the investors are in control theyre cool with the metaverse.
Re:Intel's Humbling by lotsofpulp on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @06:12AM (#39202426)
Or maybe it has something to do with their amazing net income trend in recent quarters:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/META/meta-platform...

Re:Intel's Humbling by scarface_74 on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @09:42PM (#39199119)
Am I missing something? Meta looks like it’s at an all time high
Re:Intel's Humbling by zeusk on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @04:46AM (#39201877)
Apple makes 40% of Berkshire's investment portfolio
Re:Intel's Humbling by lotsofpulp on Wednesday January 31, 2024 @06:18AM (#39202468)
https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/

As of Nov 2023, BRK has ~915.5M AAPL shares, with a market cap of $172B. BRK’s market cap is $840B.

Per the CNBC link, the market cap of BRK’s AAPL holding is 46% of the market cap of BRK’s publicly listed holdings, but BRK’s market cap being much higher than $172B/46% means there is $840B - $374B = $466B worth of market cap in BRK’s non publicly listed assets.

I would say $172/$840 = 20% is more representative of BRK’s AAPL proportion.

Re:Intel's Humbling by nine_k on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @09:05PM (#39198836)
Xeon is not something people normally run on desktops.

Datacenters were and still are full of monstrous Xeons, and for a good reason.

Re:Intel's Humbling by nullhole on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @09:24PM (#39198986)
> Datacenters were and still are full of monstrous Xeons, and for a good reason.

To ask the foolish question, why? My guess would be power efficiency. I've only ever seen them in workstations, and in that use-case it was the number of cores that was the main advantage.

Re:Intel's Humbling by nine_k on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @10:46PM (#39199599)
It's a compact package with many cores, lots of cache memory, lots or RAM lanes, and lots of PCI lanes. All within a large but manageably hot crystal.

Space and power in datacenters are at a premium; packing so many pretty decent cores into one CPU allows to run a ton of cloud VMs on a physically compact server.

AMD EPYC, by the way, follows the same dtatcenter-oriented pattern.

Re:Intel's Humbling by asd4 on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @10:01PM (#39199267)
They seem to gate ECC support behind Xeon for higher end processors. You see ECC memory in a lot of workstation class machines.