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Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by greentext on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:35PM (#38687822)
I wonder at what point there will be roving mobs of people destroying every device in sight. Anti-AI vigilante groups, etc.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by d_silin on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:45PM (#38687960)
Seems every generation have a new thing to fear. Eventually it subsides into background, the heralds of doom then move on to next big thing, and the real dangers are quietly and thanklessly mitigated by more competent people.

We had this pattern with the following ones:

- Nuclear war

- Peak Oil/Resource Depletion

- Ozone hole

- Y2K Problem

Seems like "Climate Change" is on the way out and "AI Doom" is on the way in.

Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by taylodl on Monday December 18, 2023 @04:21PM (#38688481)
- Nuclear war: averted by MAD?

- Peak Oil: happened. EV's are mitigating the consequences.

- Ozone hole: treaties banning the world-wide production of CFCs solved the problem.

- Y2K Problem: billions of dollars were spent fixing that problem. We did such a great job fixing that problem there are now a bunch of deniers stating the problem never existed in the first place!

See a pattern here? These problems just didn't up and solve themselves. We took action and solved them. Since there's no point dwelling on old problems we move on to new problems to solve. That process is otherwise known as advancement.

Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by ethanbond on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:47PM (#38688001)
Famously, the nuclear threat just solved itself (no it didn’t, and in fact isn’t even solved or meaningfully mitigated)

We now have infinite oil (thank you Petro-Jesus for making it so)

The ozone hole just healed itself with no action required by humans

Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by jonplackett on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:56PM (#38688142)
Pretty sure we stopped using the chemicals that made the hole in the ozone layer… and then it healed by itself.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by PodgieTar on Monday December 18, 2023 @04:08PM (#38688303)
...Which required legislative efforts right?

Like, we didn't just all decide to stop. We identified the issues, and made steps towards stopping it.

If there was no bans they'd still use it.

Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by jonplackett on Thursday December 21, 2023 @06:02AM (#38719043)
Yeah that was what I meant! It wasn’t a miracle that happened all by itself. It proves exactly that opposite that humans did it though massive cooperation after listening to scientists.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by ethanbond on Monday December 18, 2023 @04:14PM (#38688394)
Correct, none of these problems solved themselves. They have been addressed only through huge concerted efforts.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by PodgieTar on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:47PM (#38687996)
Climate Change is on it's way out?

Did you try stepping outside this summer? Because it was the hottest year on record, ever.

Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by paxys on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:48PM (#38688013)
To add to that, the Ozone hole and Y2K problems didn't just disappear. We solved them with an immense amount of time and active effort.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by losteric on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:53PM (#38688099)
and with thanks to public support for solutions to those problems

(to be fair, the Y2K would have been solved regardless since that could have impacted immediate quarterly financial reports)

Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by vinni2 on Monday December 18, 2023 @04:07PM (#38688292)
it’s a pity it doesn’t warm everywhere equally. Here in some places the nordics summers are getting colder and wetter. We don’t get to enjoy warming but would pay for it anyway.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by Applejinx on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:51PM (#38688054)
Here's hoping nuclear war IS indeed 'out'. Peak Oil sure as heck ain't, and even if you forget about climate change it isn't forgetting about you.

It would be a shame if (culturally, as is your framing here) it is on the way out and AI Doom is on the way in… because there's nothing inside the AI Doom box other than the ability to displace human labor. Any hard drive already surpasses human memory for scope and accuracy. We have to get used to machines out-scoping us on technical grounds. We can't run as fast as cars, either, but we're still around to think about and sometimes even attempt 'walkable cities'.

Reality always gets a vote. With 'AI Doom' the vote isn't what you think it is. It is a Jacquard loom of words. Some things change hugely, and others aren't even touched.

Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by mschuster91 on Monday December 18, 2023 @04:02PM (#38688218)
> and the real dangers are quietly and thanklessly mitigated by more competent people.

With all your examples, the mitigations were not quiet at all.

- nuclear war, well, that one got resolved by an entire empire outright collapsing after engaging in a decades long financial war with both the USSR and the US spending hundreds of billions of dollars every year.

- Peak Oil was ... mitigated by making an example out of Iraq and Libya: don't fuck with our oil, or else. On top of that, governments (most notably the EU) instituted strict emissions controls, much to the chagrin of the car establishment.

- The ozone hole was mitigated by globally banning CFC gases, again much to the chagrin of the refrigerant industry.

- the Y2K problem was mitigated by investing 300 billion dollars in preparation efforts (updating and especially testing), and a further 308 billion dollars in remediation costs worldwide [2].

> Seems like "Climate Change" is on the way out

It's certainly not. The "war for attention" may be (as it's being replaced by the Russian War and now the I/P clusterfuck), but this year was among the hottest on historical record, and natural disaster severity and frequency keeps increasing.

Unfortunately, this time we can't trust that those in the background will continue to mitigate the problem of climate change. Germany is being politically ripped apart with the only thing keeping the country together being the knowledge of the coalition that a new election would see them replaced by a conservative "trickle down" moron and a ragtag band of Nazis. The Netherlands struggle with the fallout of a few court decisions impacting the agricultural sector. And in the US, Trump is looking to make a comeback, with his fanbase deeming climate change an outright hoax.

[1] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/935886/umfrag...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2000_problem#Cost

Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by flohofwoe on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:58PM (#38688174)
Even completely ignoring the current AI hype cycle, considering the terrible state of software quality nowadays a proper Butlerian Djihad might be a good thing if that's the only way to reset the status quo ;)
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by greentext on Monday December 18, 2023 @06:02PM (#38689628)
You might be stuck programming an abacus for a few years, or a TI-83
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by flohofwoe on Tuesday December 19, 2023 @07:23AM (#38694694)
TI-83 has a Z80 CPU, that's good enough for a lot of computational tasks ;)
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by lewhoo on Monday December 18, 2023 @04:25PM (#38688529)
I wonder at what point OpenAI becomes the new public enemy, the Monsanto or Nestle of tech.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by hollerith on Monday December 18, 2023 @04:29PM (#38688584)
The Sauron of tech is more like it IMHO given the unprecedented dangerousness of creating something smarter than us.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by greentext on Monday December 18, 2023 @06:09PM (#38689686)
There's plenty of Smeagols out there already. We need a Frodo.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by booleandilemma on Monday December 18, 2023 @04:01PM (#38688215)
It all hinges on how the government is planning to handle mass unemployment.

If they're just going to be sending out a $1,200 check once a year, then yeah, things are gonna burn.

Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by paxys on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:46PM (#38687971)
The Butlerian Jihad takes place about 11,000 years in the future.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by greentext on Monday December 18, 2023 @06:03PM (#38689636)
Who says we have to wait?
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by Supermancho on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:41PM (#38687910)
I would expect this will happen a short time after the machines are physically humanized (to some extent) and common enough to find in most places.
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by matt3210 on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:40PM (#38687896)
Close than we expect probably
Re:AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; ... by throwaway743 on Monday December 18, 2023 @03:46PM (#38687974)
Gets brought up frequently regarding this matter, but just check out the hitchhiking robot that ended its journey in Philly.