> For oligarchs and elites, yes only putting complete economic lockdown could work. No way to travel and buy yourself or your kids comfy western way of life.

I don't think that can work. Russian elites absolutely value power over Western way of life. Sanctions are only needed to starve Russian economy to a point where it cannot finance war - and it has been a mixed success so far, but in principle can work.

> Russian elites absolutely value power over Western way of life

some elites maybe, but their kids will only be after a couple of generations. It's one thing if you yourself cannot spend time in London but if your kids and relatives also cannot leave and buy a new iphone suddenly you have people to answer to.

There is something surreal about the idea that the war would end by taking away some rich kids' iPhones.

You know what I mean. iPhone is catch all standing for quality status-signaling cars, furniture, food, any electronics, etc etc. The dinosaurs who still remember USSR will be fine without those but for later generations it'll be a shock if Chinese knockoffs is all they can have now like the plebs.

Those later generations are currently reaching prime age and they are leading comfortable shock-free life that just reinforces their understanding of how there can be no consequences for association with Putler.

It's clear that they are immune while if you are a regular person not associated with government and elites you are hurt by war and sanctions. So what do regular people do? Try to be associated with government and elites as best they can. How? By supporting whatever the government does.

I think you underestimate how simply a desire to have nice life and signal high status can change political outcomes

> mixed success

How do you define mixed success? It has been a more spectacular failure than the Ukranian summer counter offensive

Russians had zero problem with storming an airport to try to kill jews. The reason they arent doing anything isnt because russians are scared. The reason is most russians dont want russia to loose the war and surrender to Ukraine and give up Crimea. Even Navalny said he would continue the occupation of crimea if he replaced Putin.

Those weren't "ethnic Russians", but rather their Dagestan colony which is quite Islamic and well, they obviously follow the same outrage news cycles hating on jews.

Russia is a giant patchwork of colonies being held together by strongmen and the "ethnic Russians" more or less drain and extract the resources of every minority and send the money all to themselves in Moscow and St Petersburg.

You're completely right here, but I need to add: "ethnic Russians" are too a colony of Moscow, as the federal power puts all Russian regions in the position economic depression with how the mechanism of taxes and internal debt are implemented. Almost all regions are "dotational", which means that the federal government gives them money to cover their budget deficits, but this was not always the case.

This isn't about ethnicity, this is about strongmen in Moscow draining the country to fuel the ambitions and comfort of muscovites.

Don't forget the regions that supply natural resources for this gas station of a country. They feed Moscow with oil, diamonds, etc. Some of them I think used to require a visa for russians to enter until Putin.

They are the same Russians as others, thousands of them are killing Ukrainians right now, for money mostly.

Promise to get paid 2000$ per month is enough motivation to go to the other country thousands of kilometers away from their home and kill everyone there and probably die.

True

"a giant patchwork of colonies"

Sounds like the United States of America. Or Canada. Or Australia.

"drain and extract the resources of every minority"

Native Americans and Australian Aborigines can't agree more.

Is it that easy to crypto-launder money? That ex-Amazonian got pwned but maybe he made a rookie mistake, I don't know

I kinda misspoke, it's not just laundering per se, more like crypto being a workaround for sanctions generally. If you have crypto in some countries there are ways to withdraw it into cash and buy your kids iphones for days without much kyc. Remember Binance's ties to Russia. Or you can buy guns for your war from North Korea and pay them crypto. But yeah, for laundering there are mixers and friendly banks. NK uses Macao I heard. Russia probably HK.