> Russian elites absolutely value power over Western way of life

some elites maybe, but their kids will only be after a couple of generations. It's one thing if you yourself cannot spend time in London but if your kids and relatives also cannot leave and buy a new iphone suddenly you have people to answer to.

There is something surreal about the idea that the war would end by taking away some rich kids' iPhones.

You know what I mean. iPhone is catch all standing for quality status-signaling cars, furniture, food, any electronics, etc etc. The dinosaurs who still remember USSR will be fine without those but for later generations it'll be a shock if Chinese knockoffs is all they can have now like the plebs.

Those later generations are currently reaching prime age and they are leading comfortable shock-free life that just reinforces their understanding of how there can be no consequences for association with Putler.

It's clear that they are immune while if you are a regular person not associated with government and elites you are hurt by war and sanctions. So what do regular people do? Try to be associated with government and elites as best they can. How? By supporting whatever the government does.

I think you underestimate how simply a desire to have nice life and signal high status can change political outcomes

> mixed success

How do you define mixed success? It has been a more spectacular failure than the Ukranian summer counter offensive