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Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by Y_Y on Friday November 03, 2023 @08:07AM (#38127496)
Their "goal" is an order of magnitude improvement on existing stellarators, that sounds to me like it will want billions rather than millions. It's also doesn't seem to meet the "triple product Lawson criterion" for useful fusion (achieved recently at NIF, expected for ITER). This is cool, but I'm always skeptical of the viability of fusion startups. I won't name names, but there's already a couple out there that seem to me to be vapourware but are dragging in big funding based on the dream of fusion.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by boxed on Friday November 03, 2023 @08:41AM (#38127857)
NIF didn't have anything even remotely practical though. The energy loss in the lasers alone is game over.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by Y_Y on Friday November 03, 2023 @08:55AM (#38127988)
Exactly. They showed that it's a very lofty target even for a collosal non-commercial effort.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by itishappy on Friday November 03, 2023 @09:06AM (#38128117)
It's a fair critique, but it was also never the intent. It was designed to test nuclear physics, not generate power.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by cameldrv on Friday November 03, 2023 @11:26AM (#38130234)
It’s a reasonable misunderstanding though. They pretty deliberately obscure this fact.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by itishappy on Friday November 03, 2023 @11:31AM (#38130327)
I think they've been quite clear on their goals and accomplishments. Do you have an example in mind?
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by boxed on Friday November 03, 2023 @11:47AM (#38130540)
The big press releases claiming it has implications for fusion?
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by itishappy on Friday November 03, 2023 @12:13PM (#38130853)
This one?

https://www.llnl.gov/article/49301/shot-ages-fusion-ignition...

What do you find misleading? The ability to study self sustaining fusion reactions without nukes certainly does have implications for fusion, which aligns with their stated goals of researching nuclear physics.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by throwawaymaths on Friday November 03, 2023 @01:03PM (#38131645)
What is misleading is that nowhere in the press release do they say:

1) this research is weapons research (much less primarily weapons over power research)

2) this research does not currently contend a viable avenue towards breakeven power generation

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by itishappy on Friday November 03, 2023 @01:20PM (#38131910)
> DOE Under Secretary for Nuclear Security and NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby said in achieving ignition, LLNL researchers have “opened a new chapter in NNSA’s science-based Stockpile Stewardship Program,” one that enables scientists to modernize nuclear weapons and explore new avenues of research in nuclear science.

> Following Hruby, NNSA Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs Marvin “Marv” Adams showed a NIF target capsule and explained the science behind fusion reactions. Adams said ignition will enhance national security by helping NNSA maintain confidence in the nuclear deterrent, advance the country’s non-proliferation goals and increase national security.

> “The science and technology challenges on the path to fusion energy are daunting but making the seemingly impossible possible is when we're at our very best,” Budil explained. “Ignition is a first step — a truly monumental one that sets the stage for a transformational decade in high energy density science and fusion research — and I cannot wait to see where it takes us.”

> While optimism reigned for the event, Budil cautioned there are still “significant hurdles” and engineering challenges to solve before the commercialization of fusion energy becomes a reality, such as the ability to reproduce ignition many times per minute and making fusion reactions simpler and more efficient.

> “I think it's moving into the foreground and, probably with concerted effort and investment, a few decades of research on the underlying technologies could put us in a position to build a power plant,” Budil said.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by throwawaymaths on Friday November 03, 2023 @01:52PM (#38132416)
> the seemingly impossible possible

Did anyone seriously believe it was impossible to get "q" > 1 fusion by blasting a pellet of hydrogen hard enough?

---

Significant hurdles != "There is not currently a/no known path"

I'm still toning down from "a path is impossible" which ought to be the consensus.

> a few decades of research on the underlying technologies could put us in a position to build a power plant

No.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by cameldrv on Friday November 03, 2023 @05:22PM (#38135168)
From that press release:

> Granholm added that the unprecedented accomplishment will strengthen national security and moves the world closer to the possibility of an abundant, carbon-free energy source for the future.

> “It would be like adding a power drill to our toolbox for building a clean-energy economy,” Granholm said. “Today, we tell the world: America has achieved a tremendous scientific breakthrough — one that happened because we invested in our national labs and fundamental research. And tomorrow, we will continue to work toward a future powered in part by fusion energy.”

Since the start of the program they have been promoting ICF as a method of power generation. The very fact that they're crowing about net energy gain is because a minimum requirement for a power plant is that the energy that comes out has to be more than the energy that goes in. This is not a requirement for a fusion research machine.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by throwawaymaths on Friday November 03, 2023 @12:57PM (#38131540)
Since we're on the topic of "dragging in big funding based on the dream of fusion", can you point to a press release where they explicitly mention that this research is for weapons research and not for power research?
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by itishappy on Friday November 03, 2023 @01:23PM (#38131971)
Have you checked their website?

> MAINTAINING THE NUCLEAR DETERRENT

> Stockpile Stewardship

> NIF is a key element of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s science-based Stockpile Stewardship Program to maintain the reliability, security, and safety of the U.S. nuclear deterrent without full-scale testing.

https://lasers.llnl.gov/about/what-is-nif

> For more than 70 years, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has applied science and technology (S&T) to make the world a safer place. While keeping our crucial mission-driven commitments in mind, we apply cutting-edge science and technology to achieve breakthroughs in nuclear deterrence, counterterrorism and nonproliferation, defense and intelligence and energy and environmental security.

https://www.llnl.gov/

It's also intended for energy research, but there's an important distinction between "energy research" and "energy production."

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by throwawaymaths on Friday November 03, 2023 @02:23PM (#38132826)
Website != Press release
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by firedaemon on Friday November 03, 2023 @06:49PM (#38136105)
At this point the claim seems to be but I think that some people think it is all about energy, as if your random interpretation of other peoples’ belief is relevant.

They do weapons. They said they do weapons. What’s the problem.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by throwawaymaths on Friday November 03, 2023 @07:57PM (#38136591)
They don't say that in their press releases. None of the popular media coverage talks about the weapons aspect, much less that it's primary. I challenge you to prove me wrong.

The general public is not stupid (but they are lazy), when the dust settles and people see that nif never resulted in anything but very tangential results useful for power, they're going to complain about the lack of transparency. Just as they are doing with the whole COVID masking debate. Scientists really dig their own graves sometimes.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by ben_w on Friday November 03, 2023 @11:41AM (#38130457)
IIRC, that specific issue is merely an implementation detail, much more efficient lasers already exist.

There are plenty of other problems to be solved, and a lot of room for higher gain — upgrading the lasers isn't worth caring about until those things have actually been done.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by boxed on Friday November 03, 2023 @11:45AM (#38130522)
The efficiency in the lasers isn't off by 50%. They are off by SEVERAL orders of magnitude.

Plus the fuel pellets are too expensive anyway.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by ben_w on Friday November 03, 2023 @12:24PM (#38130994)
Yes, I know.

NIF's lasers are, I'm told, less than 1% efficient; modern lasers can be 50%-80% if that's what is being optimised for.

There's no reason to bother upgrading those lasers until all the other issues are solved, and even then, as it's an experimental facility not a power station, they may well never bother even if it is the only thing holding them back from a gain of more than 1 as measured wallplug-to-wallplug.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by maxcan on Friday November 03, 2023 @01:48PM (#38132360)
True. But if you replace the Hohlraum with dilithium and find an anti-matter supply you can power a warm drive for FTL travel. Just need to kick it now and then.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by DennisP on Friday November 03, 2023 @04:23PM (#38134496)
They lose so much in the lasers because they're using lasers from the 1990s, which are only 0.5% efficient. Equivalent modern lasers are over 20% efficient. From the input power being 130X more than the fusion output, modern lasers would turn that into about 3X.

That's kinda promising because the fusion output seems to have nonlinear scaling; they increased laser power 8% and got 230% more output.

This is why there are startups now pursuing laser fusion for commercial energy.

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by willis936 on Friday November 03, 2023 @08:57AM (#38128008)
Triple product is necessary and partially sufficient. One of those products is "confinement time". Longer confinement times with lower density make for machines that are closer to steady state rather than pulsed, greatly reducing engineering challenges. Stellarators are on the far end of the "steady state" spectrum while NIF is on the far end of the "high density" spectrum.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by BeefWellington on Friday November 03, 2023 @10:49AM (#38129664)
I look at these places as technology and patent incubators more than anything.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by danbruc on Friday November 03, 2023 @11:00AM (#38129812)
NIF is doing weapons research, what they achieved is essentially irrelevant for electricity production as there is no plausible route towards a power plant. And if you take the overall energy balance, they did not even break even.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by cmpxchg8b on Friday November 03, 2023 @11:30AM (#38130299)
Warships need electricity too..
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by Symmetry on Friday November 03, 2023 @01:28PM (#38132048)
And the Navy puts money into fusion research for that reason, including a bit into cold fusion just in case. But that's not what their doing at NIF, those guys are trying to figure out if you can make a thermonuclear bomb with just cheap lithium deutride and not the expensive plutonium/enriched uranium.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by tivert on Friday November 03, 2023 @03:37PM (#38133947)
> But that's not what their doing at NIF, those guys are trying to figure out if you can make a thermonuclear bomb with just cheap lithium deutride and not the expensive plutonium/enriched uranium.

IIRC, thermonuclear bombs are already made with lithium deutride.

Do you mean they're trying to build a thermonuclear bomb without the fission "detonator"? That doesn't make tons of sense to me, since I'd think the test ban treaty would realistically prevent creation of novel types of weapons (because it wouldn't be foolish to rely on a weapon for deterrence that you've never fully tested).

Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by actionfromafar on Friday November 03, 2023 @05:51PM (#38135457)
The treaty Russia just punted on?
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by danbruc on Friday November 03, 2023 @06:39PM (#38136003)
The one that the United States signed but never ratified? Just as China, Egypt, Iran and Israel. And that India, North Korea and Pakistan never signed to begin with? And that will enter into force only after all those countries have signed at ratified it?
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by actionfromafar on Saturday November 04, 2023 @06:37AM (#38139740)
Exactly. We shouldn’t be extremely surprised if testing resumes.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by noobermin on Friday November 03, 2023 @06:02PM (#38135602)
I'm freaking tired of this line. NIF has an actual break even result which is greater than the results of any mcf experiment. If the NIF result is shit that whole field's result is then below shit.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by danbruc on Friday November 03, 2023 @06:32PM (#38135932)
Already the first fusion bomb had a break even result.
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by dreamcompiler on Friday November 03, 2023 @06:50PM (#38136115)
NIF's result is significant milestone in the same sense that the invention of the airplane was a significant milestone in the field of space travel. It matters, but we're still a very, very long way from landing on the moon (a fusion-powered electric grid).
Re:Proxima Fusion looks to take stellarators commercial by howenterprisey on Friday November 03, 2023 @09:43PM (#38137272)
That doesn't address their point. It doesn't matter how good the result is if the entire research direction is a dead end, which it is, being practically impossible to convert into a power plant.