>knowing

I think the risk was huge (personally I thought 50-70% at the time), but not 99% or something. Also (in my opinion) people don't take into account that alternative was irrelevance in exile, just look at what happened with Kasparov's popularity inside Russia, and he was a prominent opposition activist in 2011-2012.

Still, people tend to value their life higher than their relevance - I mean, in the West he could have probably lived a comfortable life writing books and articles, working as a TV expert on Russia etc. I also respect his decision, but seeing that the powers that be already tried to kill him once, the chances of him returning to Russia and not being arrested were even lower than 1% I would say...

> Still, people tend to value their life higher than their relevance

That's exactly what sets rare individuals like Navalny apart: that what they believe in, what they stand for, weighs heavier than their personal well-being.

Yeah, he wants the same Russian empire as Putin, but with less corruption.

> he wants the same Russian empire as Putin, but with less corruption.

Exactly. I don't understand fascination of some westerners towards Navalny. He used to attend nazi rallies (literal sieg-heiling nazis, not "you are slightly right of Bernie"), then assumed veneer of political respectability without ever formally denouncing his previous talking points and started campaigning with the main premise of basically "I'll be better and less corrupt Czar of Russian empire". There is nothing liberal or democratic about this guy's political views.

That's my point. He had put everything at risk because he knew it was the right thing to do. When choosing between doing what you think is best and what keeps you safe, people often choose the later.

It also kept him on the map as a Russian politician. Even though his practical communication abilities are pretty limited because of that.

> irrelevance in exile, just look at what happened with Kasparov's popularity inside Russia

Then again, Kasparov undermines Russia more efficiently while in exile than Navalny while inside (a prison no less). And Navalvy social media statements in exile might have been even more undermining Kasparov's.

Of course, undermining Russia with words might not help at all anyway...

Whatever Kasparov says or does in exile is quite irrelevant. This is how actual Russians think:

"He's not even in Russia, what does he know."

I don't know why Navalny returned to Russia after being poisoned and nearly killed by Putin's thugs, but it was a very brave thing to do. It makes no sense.

As close as I can tell, Russians tend to be very fatalistic. It's never been a happy place. It's cold, the state is corrupt, life is cheap. But people have a strong personal need for justice, to find those guilty and make them pay. But the state won't deliver justice, so you make a stand, and life is cheap so you take risks and double down. Hence Navalny, hence Litvinenko, hence all the journalists over the years who reported until they were thrown out windows or gunned down in public. Incredibly brave, I only wish the bravery led to real change rather than a neverending Greek tragedy.

It is because as a person you feel nothing else can be done. So you do the thing that you can do, knowing that probably it can't change much but... what else can you do? Doing nothing like everyone else? From the outside it looks like madness, but when you are that person it seems like keeping your integrity and being able to look in the mirror.

> So you do the thing that you can do, knowing that probably it can't change much but... what else can you do?

https://youtu.be/9-9LG7-2hV8

Russia has always fought tyranny with literature.

I'm not sure how "undermining Russia" is supposed to get you any votes (popular support, followers) in that Russia you are undermining.

Grant money that can yield all right.

If you're going to infer from previous instances previous Russian revolutionary figures, why not look at Lenin? Or Trotsky?

At the day he returned, he released his grandest and most damning documentary about Putin's $1B palace and the ways it was financed. Maybe he hoped people would rise up and overturn Putin with him leading the masses.

I think he miscalculated the degree of cruelty he’ll experience. Also his move itself could be the trigger as if this cruelty would nit be there, then he would have been a hero winning, not a hero losing. Steps “had to be made”, sadly.

I don't know... they tried to kill him and they killed people before for less. Knowing some Russian and Soviet history it's pretty clear what mentality you're fighting.

What has allowed the Russian state to treat him with such a degree of cruelty is the war with Ukraine. News of his arrest, imprisonment, and treatment in jail were overshadowed by those of another airstrike on a civilian population. Not to mention, it sent a clear message to internal opposition that those willing to act against the state would face not just legal hurdles but also tyranny and physical violence.

The recent Israeli-Palestine conflict has shown that Russo-Ukrainian war is actually fought very carefully from both sides.

Indeed, in a week both sides of the former seem to have did more war crimes than one and half years of the latter, compounded.

In this context, the claim of "another airstrike on a civilian population" seems laughable. We all saw how airstirkes on a civilian population really look like, in Gaza. Do you want photos?

Yes, feel free to send them to [email protected]

There are plenty of photos of russians bombing civilians, hospitals, Mariupol drama theater had "children" written in letters so big that they can be seen from space. Still bombed. Just few weeks ago a funeral was hit with a rocket, 50+ civilians dead. Let alone the constant attacks on civilian power and port infrastructure trying to freeze and famine not only Ukraine.

This is just a completely ignorant take that the Israelis are somehow worse than russians.

Why do you write Israeli, when it was Gaza’s who bombed their hospital themselves. Like other autocracies tend to do to their citizens, by not valuing their lives.

It was pretty clear from the context that the person I replied to was referring to israeli air strikes against Gaza.

I have no doubt hamas is a terrorist organization who don't give a crap about any civilians, be it Gazans or not.

Sorry, didn’t get that. Thanks for the clarification, I reread the comment you’ve replied to and it’s now clear them trying to whitewash terrorists (Russia and Hamas), while blaming the victims.

Bombed with what?

With a rocket made of water pipe and ammonia fertilizer? Obviously it would not do that kind of damage. We've seen impacts of stuff Hamas has and it can't do that.

The angle from which Israel doing this damage control reciprocity blaming is laughable.

I don't know who bombed the hospital in this case. But in the past Hamas showed very clearly they don't value the lives of their people at all and they used women and children as living shield on numerous occasions.

I'm just saying exactly that - anybody may now take two sets of photos and compare the amount of rampage over the time period to approximate the "DPS" done to civilian infrastructure.

Of course, I cannot prevent that person from being in denial due to cognitive dissonance.

The words you wrote here make no sense and are in direct contradiction to your original claim.

Can you please clarify your thoughts?

My thoughts are that the press (and moreso twitter) has a very skewed way to report stuff. It is designed for entertainment value and not for rigor, and also to push a narrative.

Having two sets if inputs regarding somewhat similar events allows you to do a reality check. For example, you can compare civilian infrastructure damage footage from Gaza and that of Ukraine and arrive to some conclusions.

How does this lead you to your original claim of:

> The recent Israeli-Palestine conflict has shown that Russo-Ukrainian war is actually fought very carefully from both sides.

Because the Gaza footage is quite a mess. You will have hard times matching it with Ukraine footage. Sometimes, whole neighbourhoods of civilian high rises were levelled.

Meanwhile, obviously the carnage of civilians during the initial Gaza raid is also something that you will have hard time matching with anything happening in Ukraine.

Perhaps you will derive something different from these pictures, I just suggest doing that instead of going along with narratives.

> Because the Gaza footage is quite a mess. You will have hard times matching it with Ukraine footage. Sometimes, whole neighbourhoods of civilian high rises were levelled.

Russia has literally deleted entire Ukrainian cities off the map, so this is a very strange paragraph to right.

The only difference is in Ukraine the civilians were told to evacuate there homes when the Russians are near by, in Gaza they are told to stay in there homes by Hamas.

It is also much harder to evacuate people in Gaza.

That is the difference. People in Gaza also have nowhere to go if they wanted.

> That is the difference. People in Gaza also have nowhere to go if they wanted.

Exactly, the difference isn't that in the Ukraine war that the Russians are being careful or precise, it's that the Ukrainian citizens can actually evacuate from the areas they are in.

They won't be if Russia decided to start with a massive air strikes campaign before even starting ground offensive.

But that's not happened - not against the apartment blocks, anyway.

Really? So you don't remember the bombing of Kyiv where corners of high rise apartment blocks were blown of by rockets and artillery.

Or Kharkiv where whole blocks of apartment buildings were demolished by indiscriminate shelling?

As a fact, no, I don't. The amount of carnage seen on Palestine photos and videos is not matched.

Of you read words written by press, you may get an impression that it is comparable. But you will struggle to find evidence backing it up. Because there is not.

Alright please then: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-26/frightening-moment-a-...

Also you seem to be fixed on carnage inflicted to Palestine but not a word about the videos and images of beheadings and wanton murder of Israelis by the hamas terrorists. Why is that? Did not hamas unleash this round of violence by absolutely barbaric attacks?

So on display is an apartment block being hit by "a missile". That would be our exhibit A.

However, the issue is that exhibit B is whole rows of apartment blocks hollowed out, visibly mangled or even levelled out by Israeli air strikes.

This was my original point.

> However, the issue is that exhibit B is whole rows of apartment blocks hollowed out, visibly mangled or even levelled out by Israeli air strikes.

It’s like your exactly describing what the Russians did to Bakhmut.

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/may/18/stark-b...

As it was already noticed, it was not due to unannounced airstrikes in Bakhmut but due to ground offensive. Any civilians could and should have been evacuated by then, or at least took cover.

If we will seee ground offensive in Gaza, the picture will likely be the same but on larger scale. This is on top of air strikes damage, for which the population in these blocks could not prepare.

> As it was already noticed, it was not due to unannounced airstrikes in Bakhmut but due to ground offensive. Any civilians could and should have been evacuated by then, or at least took cover.

Sure,

So like the Dnipro apartment block strike that was from a Russian Kh-22 and flattened part of the building.

Here's a photo.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cf/Dnipro_a...

Again, this is one missile (maybe it was shot down by AA rocket, or just went off course). And most of the building is still standing. The point of this launch was likely some military target.

Compare that to Palestinean videos where a dozen of blocks are levelled indiscriminately.

Also note that it's just been two weeks, as opposed to almost two years. Two years of fighting which resulted in just some cherry-picks.

> Again, this is one missile (maybe it was shot down by AA rocket, or just went off course).

The amount of precision guided missiles that we have seen hit civilian targets makes me think this is just as likely to be an intentional targeting as it is “flying off course”.

> The point of this launch was likely some military target.

You have no way of knowing this, and one could say literally the same thing about the Israeli strikes.

> As a fact, no, I don't. The amount of carnage seen on Palestine photos and videos is not matched.

You’re not looking very hard then.

The carnage is identical the Russians have literally leveled entire cities in Ukraine, I dare say the Russians have leveled an area that is overall larger then Gaza in its entirety.

This is before we get to the especially brutal parts of Russias war like when they launched an anti ship missile at a shopping centre.

Launching "a missile" at a target pales in comparison with a row of apartment blocks levelled by air strikes.

And no, ground offensives are not the same. I hope we won't see those in Gaza - there is still chance.

> Launching "a missile" at a target pales in comparison with a row of apartment blocks levelled by air strikes.

It literally nearly levelled a shopping mall and killed 20+ civilians and injured close to 60.

So I guess the real question becomes, are civilian causalities okay or not?, if they are not okay then Russians indiscriminate targeting and killing of civilians in Ukraine is just as bad as Israels.

> And no, ground offensives are not the same. I hope we won't see those in Gaza - there is still chance.

So if Israel kills civilians in a ground offensive does that make it okay?.

Ground offensive makes it worse but it's already very bad. Worse than most of the stuff seen in the Russo-Ukrainian.

The question is actually a different one: about the collateral damage. But in the case of both Palestine and Israel, that question does not even enter the picture. Both sides show no discretion in killing one other.

The kind of restraint that brought us atrocities of Bucha and the childrens torture chambers of Kherson?

Murder and genocide has been russian m.o for ever. You can’t downplay this.

You never answered the questions, are civilian causalities okay or not?.

Given how multiple cities in Ukraine look after Russias “ground offensive” I presume you’d be fine with Israel flattening Gaza in a ground offensive?.

Considering that’s exactly what Russia is doing to Ukraine.

> The question is actually a different one: about the collateral damage.

Or are you saying that if Ukraine used civilians as meat shields and forced them to stay in place that you would have a problem with what Russia is doing?.

The conflict of the week has not resulted in more war crimes than the 600 day - week long special operation.

Neither side has air superiority in Ukraine.

Israel can do what they're doing, because their enemy has no air defence whatsoever.

While Navalny's courage in facing political persecution is commendable, it's important to contextualize his earlier views to understand him fully.

Before his imprisonment and prior to the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Navalny held positions that some might describe as nationalistic. For example, his stance on Crimea has been ambivalent, with statements that sometimes tacitly accept Russia's annexation of the region.

Navalny has a history of ethnocentric comments and has been involved in nationalist rallies in Russia. This complicates the narrative that he is solely a liberal figure fighting for democracy.

He opposes Putin's regime, but his political ideology doesn't necessarily align with values of international law, human rights, and economic freedoms.

As much as what you say is factually accurate, I think it's important to contextualize within the broader Russian consciousness.. the same could be said about almost any American. Just as Americans have certain exceptionalism all the way down to their bones, Russia is similar. The idea that a Russian politician wouldn't at times speak in ways that harken back to that core should not be used as something that dismisses a man of incredible courage who is truly exceptional within a body politic of others that are perennially silent. I've seen this trope before and believe it comes from a naive perspective. In order to have any chance of successfully rallying of people you do need to appeal to some of their base instincts

  > In order to have any chance of successfully rallying of people you do need
  > to appeal to some of their base instincts

I understand your point about the role of nationalism in Russian politics. However, it's crucial for us in the proverbial "West" to have a nuanced understanding of Navalny, because it's too easy to equate "political victimhood" == "purity of intentions".

I'm not questioning his courage or opposition to Putin; my aim is to highlight that his political ideology isn't straightforward.

Should he unexpectedly assume presidency, his past statements make it unclear whether he'd reverse Russia's actions in Ukraine, (but there would be a chance).

You do know his political stance, right? https://twitter.com/krides/status/1509841011295592450 Do you also have huge respect for Prigozhin for flying back to Moscow after agreeing to stop the revolt? Same energy.

Pluralism can be valuable even if all the participants are reprehensible. Ideally they compete each other to a standstill, allowing separation of powers and human rights to gain a foothold.

That said western media does have the habit of glossing over the actual platform of any dictators opposition, see for instance the breathless adoration the Dalai Lama gets.

My downstairs neighbour believes in crystals. Which is fine because she's not in a position to force me to use crystals, or the teaching of crystals as a healing method in schools (etc).

This argument might even work on people not living next to russia.

I support the rights of people in other places to fairly elect their leaders, even when I wouldn't agree with them.

Same for me. I realize that he is also pro-imperialism and would probably be worse for Europe than Putin (Russia would be more efficient)

But him facing jail with an upright stance shows a lot of skin in the game, you cannot ignore that.

I think it was incredibly indicative of his foolishness.

It might have been a practical decision too. I guess he calculated that if they want to get to him they'd get to him pretty much anywhere on the planet and still maintain deniability. So might as well go back.