As more people are able to produce music (due to cheaper tools like DAWs, more accessible music theory education, etc etc), if the demand of music doesn't grow proportionally, the average income of musicians/songwriters would decline.
The above will happen regardless of Spotify's existence. Thus, Spotify doesn't matter (much).
You're just going to end up with a bunch of sloppy tables.
People still want to listen to quality music from artists who have years of practice and experience. You can't reliably get years of experience unless you're getting paid to do it.
Sure, there are exceptions, but it's not the rule. Michael Jackson would not have existed if there was no money in the career. The money is why his father pushed so (insanely) hard.
The counter argument is trash music will just be the norm. And maybe for a while that would happen, but eventually we'll see someone (similar to the private search engines we see today) come out with a new platform with the selling point that artists get a living wage -- as long as the people demand it, and I believe they will.
Uh... and it's true? If the price of circular saws drop in price, and the demand for hand-made furniture doesn't change, then they'll become cheaper. How much cheaper is another question, as circular saws are already very cheap today, compared to hand-made furniture.
So yeah, you're right, it's just like saying that.
> if there was no money in the career
It's unlikely to decline indefinitely. Piracy, Spotify, more youtube channel teaching how to make music... all these didn't prevent Billie Eilish from becoming a star.
I don't know whether circular saws are likely to be the biggest input into a piece of handmade furniture, but my guess is they're not and it's time invested in the specific work and practicing the art rather than industrial capital.
Similarly, while DAWs while can (though not necessarily do) reduce capital necessary to do certain aspects of production, they don't represent the most significant investment into writing music. Also time, both in the creation of the specific work AND in terms of time practicing the art.
> It's unlikely to decline indefinitely. Piracy, Spotify, more youtube channel teaching how to make music... all these didn't prevent Billie Eilish from becoming a star.
Survivorship bias. Billie Eilish or any other individual success are no more an indication that all is well with the status quo than blue zone anecdotes are promises anyone who chooses can be a centenarian.
>You're just going to end up with a bunch of sloppy tables.
Well, yes, and that's how IKEA and mass production in general made many people that would be making furniture out of the job.
Even in tailor-made stuff good cheap tools does make work of skilled maker far quicker. And you can get more people trying to get into that if the tools are cheap.
Hardware is cheap, software is free/near free so there is far more people trying, when you no longer need to spend small car worth of money just to say play electronic music
> People still want to listen to quality music from artists who have years of practice and experience. You can't reliably get years of experience unless you're getting paid to do it.
Most musicians got that by playing in garage bands and doing concerts.
And many of them did it entirely for free, out of passion, till they were good enough, far before fancy computers were in everyone's pockets.
> The counter argument is trash music will just be the norm.
It is the norm far before Spotify happened I'm afraid
Actually I think something has happened to the textiles industry whereby demand must have driven a certain band of suppliers out of business, and now try as I could I can't get polo shirts in the same think quality cotton weave I could 30 years ago. There is probably some niche source possibly online but I don't know how to discover it; the standard "throw money at luxury mall brand" route seems to not work any longer as the brick and mortars have watered down their materials as well. Sic transit gloria mundi
I like wearing industrial clothing (like red kap cotton work shirts) and to my eye seem like they're made about the same quality they always were.
I think the existence of Micheal Jackson is quite tragic, so I don't think it's a good thing that a system tortured him into being a famous musician
Of course, this isn't new. Tim O'Reilly said something similar in the context of book publishing probably getting on to 20 years ago at this point.
What happened instead was that Spotify led the pricing change by taking capital, cheating policy, and producing a consumption avenue that cut the price by orders of magnitude.
And meanwhile:
> cheaper tools like DAWs, more accessible music theory education
The gains in education are fractional. The library or a neighborhood piano teacher were good enough resource wise. YouTube eliminates the trip (and the funny thing is that we're iffy on even rewarding those people proportionally), but isn't a new opportunity.
And even for materials that are better in the way that 3Blue1Brown is for math... just like you're going to have to sit down and spend a lot of time actually doing problems rather than just watching the videos if you have any hope of really getting it, the constraint when it comes to producing music is still sitting down and putting in the time, not only on the specific problem/work in front of you but in the background to do it elegantly.
DAWs are great and can make up for some margin of missing virtuosity, but you have to put in the time practicing using them too -- they become their own instrument.
The constraint on making music has always been time. And what gets you more time to do something? Either having another source of wealth, or getting economically rewarded for doing that thing.
Spotify and the damage it's done the market absolutely matters. Just because music is getting through the damage doesn't mean there wasn't some lost, and not just quantity, level that could have been leveraged to through the magic of compounding focus. Anybody who's read Graham's "maker schedule/manager scheduler" should already know this.
Why do I care if spotify's investors have replace the record label investors?
But let's say for the sake of argument that's how it worked before the internet. If so, why did we let that level of disruption just replace one set of bad guys with another?
What we should have had instead was what we were on track to have: multiple-scale digital recording retail, Apple to Bandcamp to individual artist site to local indie collective as point of sale. Charge whatever artist and buyer choose and can clear a transaction at, they keep 70-90%. True streaming, some with a format, some algorithmically customized for both audio wallpaper and music discovery... but in every case not user-programmed because that's how you justify the difference between the ridiculous fractional cent payouts and recordings.
That's the world we could have tomorrow if the policy was there.
More likely, everybody's too used to a decade of having the privilege of an unlimited basically free recording buffet that Spotify used to cannibalize the industry and we won't do it no matter how it erodes the economics of creation. But we could.
Also, like everything in the universe, they are subject to supply vs demand.
And fundamentally the supply exceeds the demand.
The problem now is that we have so much content (music, books, movies, short vids, long vids, etc...), and not enough aggregate time to consume it all.
If you can't hear the difference, see a doctor.
You can apply this on professional filmmaking or vlogging. I guess amount of time consumed audiovisual production today is much higher on amateurish production thanks to antisocial networks.
Nowadays most valuable is attention. Cheap stimuli is easier to consume. That's what technology teach us.
But a 2k$ guitar is certainly better than a 50$ guitar. Not only in how it sounds but in how easy it is to play it.
My 1st guitar was bad so I couldn't do barrè chords. I thought I was bad and pros could do it. Turned out pros just had better guitars.
Better guitars also have less noise, better cables are shielded.
Yes, more expensive is better (up to a point).
It's not just about the sound.
Even when you go into hardware you can still get plenty for cheap.
Good that you changed your mind.
You could replace most of this category with a Markov chain bouncing up and down a simple key without most people even thinking about it, and I know because this is exactly how I made music for my shareware video games a decade ago.
Did your video game sell as much as outcast? A game with a proper music score.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outcast_(video_game)
Does your game have a wikipedia entry?
Could I assume that people enjoyed outcast more than your hobby game?
Sure, but they'll also watch daily soap operas, and the meme "I showed my favourite film to a loved one, but they paid no attention" predates multi-screening.
> Did your video game sell as much as outcast? A game with a proper music score.
Even in aggregate over all the games: I wish :P
But the real question is: how much of that was the music?
Even now, were I to redo that period of my life (and so not need to caveat markets changing), the music isn't what I'd focus on changing — shareware was already a bad idea though I didn't realise it, MacOS shareware written in Java just as MacOS got its own (ObjC only) app store moreso.
That actually makes Spotify worse, because they could have offered that product instead of using huge sums of capital to reshape the expectation anybody with a device is entitled to listen to any work on demand for free.
I guess the good news is that it wouldn't cause a fuss if someone were to change policy so that you can't pay out buffet streaming like it's digital radio and people ended up having to buy songs or at least do the honest work of piracy if they won't accept the app directing programming. After all, most people are just as happy listening to a Markov chain generate bloops for free.
It's about keeping an entire industry, live or recorded, and their milieu alive.
The truth is that what happened wasn't a liberation. It was a methodical purge of the medium-sized side of the music industry. Now we're reaching the point of having 5-6 industry giants taking all the money plus...yes, an inordinate amount of people making mostly self-referential music in their own bedroom on weekends, music that will reach no-one outside whatever local scene they hang around. But most of them were making music even before, and were by their own choice irrelevant to the industry. (True, now they can also become influencers on Twitch and maybe one out of thousands can make a living by streaming their life 24h/day. One ticket for the lottery, please). Whoever was between them and the majors is being squeezed out of the game.
Humanity has always been constrained by the 24 hour a day thing, but the economy has grown nonetheless.
That last little bit is interesting. Back in the physical media era, if Artist B fell out of your rotation, you could sell your record/tape/CD and decrease the size of their new market a little bit. Then we went to DRM, and every song you bought was a sunk cost; if you didn't listen to it, you still payed. Now with streaming, it's back to the downsides of physical media; if you stop listening to Artist B, they stop getting paid.
There was already "enough" recorded music decades ago that someone could fill their living ours with constant listening and not exhaust it. If that's really all there is to it, I'm sure you'll have no problem committing to never listen to anything after around 1970. If you have any hesitation about that then you might start to see serious shortcomings in this conception of supply.
"there are more people able to make and publish music then ever" also papers over nearly everything that matters about the statement. "There are more people" is the defensible part. There's half an argument we have greater access to affordable digital tools for production than ever -- but I'm not even sure it's half. The constraining factor on music composition, performance/recording, production is always time. Even where the tools themselves save time that's a series of converging terms that stops at a limit because to make good music you have to practice using those tools plus others. A lot.
Set up a system which rewards those people in proportion to the audience they find and those people are both equipped and incentivized to spend more of their time into making not only more but making better, because they aren't required to spend their time doing other things.
Set up a system which says "Oh yeah, we shouldn't value any of this, people should just do it in their spare time" and sure, some will do it in their spare time. But they'll miss out on the compounding effects of focus and its power laws because they're occupied with whatever other stuff policy+markets have been set up to value instead. And their audience and the rest of the world will miss out on their power law peaks.
Which is why I was too generous with my earlier "never listen to anything after around 1970" thought experiment. Really, don't listen to anything except debut releases before 1970. Some of the debuts are really good, of course, and labors of love (or capital-backed love) as you say. But the post-debut work is what's enabled by the economic feedback.
There will, of course, likely often be survivors to bias ourselves to the status quo with. And perhaps that's good enough for some. Hell, maybe we're even rapidly getting to a point where we don't even need most artists at all, we can simply have software trained on all the work of all the artists that have ever recorded produce it for you, and be done with not only the pesky idea of rewarding musicians whose work we appreciate but having a pesky human being involved in direct production in the first place.
Well, I'd say yes because that's what the conversation is about.