News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by mochomocha on Thursday July 06, 2023 @09:42PM (#36625922)
> But instead AMD has just followed Nvidia into making slow, uncompetitive GPUs at high prices.

I'm curious: do you use GPUs? It's hard to take this claim seriously. Yes NVIDIA GPUs are expensive, but I don't think we live in the same matrix when you claim that their GPUs are slow and uncompetitive... Unless you have an alternative in mind, in which case I'm all ears.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by andrewstuart on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:33PM (#36626338)
The brand new Nvidia RTX 4060 “can be slower than it’s predecessor in some cases”.

“ Nvidia GeForce RTX 4060 Ti (8GB) review: Disappointing for $400”

https://www.pcworld.com/article/1925928/nvidia-geforce-rtx-4...

“Do not buy”

“The Nvidia RTX 4060 ti is a waste of sand.”

https://youtu.be/Y2b0MWGwK_U

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by johncolanduoni on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:56PM (#36626517)
That’s their newest mid-tier consumer card. On the data-center side they can’t make H100s fast enough, all the AI startups are clamoring for them. You also won’t see any reviews like that for the 4090; the only complaint I’ve seen there is that it’s hard to take advantage of it if your’re just gaming (but it’s still great for CUDA development).
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by senttoschool on Thursday July 06, 2023 @11:12PM (#36626608)
Nvidia knows that the profit margins at mid-tier GPUs are tiny - so they're pushing people to buy the 4070, 4080, and 4090.

Wafer prices have increased drastically in the last decade - to the point that midrange cards are no longer midrange priced.

It simply isn't really profitable to make real midrange cards anymore.

In addition, discrete GPUs market is a declining market and has been for 15 years or so. Therefore, in any declining market, the low-end and mid-range products will get squeezed and the high end will get pushed. The remaining buyers of discrete GPUs are willing to pay higher prices. Those who don't will buy a laptop with an Nvidia GPU already in it or some sort of SoC (like Apple Silicon/AMD APUs/Intel APUs).

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by andrewstuart on Thursday July 06, 2023 @11:29PM (#36626733)
The market for GOUs is declining because crypto is over and because the GPUs are so underpowered and overpriced that people don’t want to buy them.

And if GPUs cost so much to make, why do they get discounted so drastically when the manufacturers eventually decide to compete?

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by aurareturn on Thursday July 06, 2023 @11:45PM (#36626841)
>The market for GOUs is declining because crypto is over and because the GPUs are so underpowered and overpriced that people don’t want to buy them.

No, this is not true. DIY PCs aren't as popular as before due to the advancements in laptops and interest swinging to mobile. People are buying far more laptops than 10-20 years ago. In fact, gaming laptops outsell gaming desktops 2:1 now.[0] The gap is expected to widen.

The market for discrete GPUs has been declining long before crypto. Crypto just slowed the decline.

Notice the word discrete. The entire GPU market isn't declining. Only discrete.

>And if GPUs cost so much to make, why do they get discounted so drastically when the manufacturers eventually decide to compete?

Part of it is because of price inflation due to covid and crypto bubble. So prices are just going back to a more normal.

[0]https://web.archive.org/web/20210406085311/https://www.idc.c...

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by iraqmtpizza on Friday July 07, 2023 @01:12AM (#36627450)
>gaming laptops outsell gaming desktops 2:1

Based on desktop CPU sales or based on pre-built sales? I don't know what qualifies as a gaming laptop these days but the best laptops for software development often have discrete graphics cards in them e.g. 1660 Ti

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by aurareturn on Friday July 07, 2023 @04:54AM (#36629051)
Based on however IDC defines a gaming laptop.

I'm guessing it's having a non-APU AMD/Nvidia GPU inside the laptop.

But it makes sense to me. Laptops have gotten much better, and most gamers aren't buying Nvidia 4090. The most common GPU is just a GeForce GTX 1650 which many laptops have and have thermals that easily fit inside a laptop.

It's not surprising at all that gaming laptops outsell gaming desktops. This isn't the 2000s anymore where if you want to play PC games, you build a DIY desktop tower and buy a discrete GPU.

It's a myth that most PC gamers use top of the range GPUs. Most of them use low-end or mid-range GPUs.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by chmod775 on Saturday July 08, 2023 @05:28AM (#36642800)
> In fact, gaming laptops outsell gaming desktops 2:1 now.

This doesn't show what you think it does. The majority of desktop gaming PCs are self built and won't show up in that statistic.

Additionally GPUs are the most commonly upgraded component during the lifetime of a built.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by senttoschool on Monday July 10, 2023 @02:25AM (#36662800)
>This doesn't show what you think it does. The majority of desktop gaming PCs are self built and won't show up in that statistic.

It probably does. I never paid for the report but I assume IDC collects data on DIY desktop towers and make an educated guess.

Regardless, gaming laptops sells far more than DIY computers.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by chmod775 on Monday July 10, 2023 @02:05PM (#36670444)
In 2020 Nvidia + AMD sold 41.5 million desktop GPUs.[1] That doesn't add up at all with 16.7 million desktop PCs.

[1] Second graphic: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-maintains-lead-as-s...

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by senttoschool on Tuesday July 11, 2023 @08:11AM (#36679869)
Discrete GPUs can go into old desktop PCs. That's my guess.

And it's not clear what % of them were used for gaming vs crypto mining.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by thou4o2i34u234 on Friday July 07, 2023 @03:45AM (#36628530)
Their margins on their enterprise cards are far far higher.

The A100 which is similar to 4090 in silicon goes for 15-20x. Nvidia is probably deriving as much profit from cloud at this point as gamers.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by parineum on Friday July 07, 2023 @01:07AM (#36627415)
They offer more than those two cards and the cards they are losing to are other Nvidia cards.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by nl on Friday July 07, 2023 @02:00AM (#36627792)
The 4060 is a pretty unusual case. In general NVidia cards fit on a very predictable price/performance curve where you don't get any performance for free, but consequentially you pay more and get more performance.

(admittedly I have zero interest in them as gaming hardware, but on the GPU compute side this is definitely the case)

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by paulmd on Friday July 07, 2023 @06:10PM (#36638939)
It's kinda amazing how year after year reviewers release the "new products are crap, buy the thing we told you was crap last year" and people don't catch on.

The low-end is crawling along due to fixed cost overheads from PHY area that doesn't shrink. 4N is ~3x the price per area as Samsung, and PHY area becomes relatively much larger. The incentive is to cut every cost in PHY area - fewer memory channels to reclaim PHY area and using cache instead, cutting PCIe width to reclaim that PHY area, even cannibalizing the media engine/encoders to claw back that last little bit of space. AMD has actively been engaged in this battle with 6600XT (x8 PCIe) and 6500XT (x4 PCIe, no encoder) and RDNA2 generally shrinking memory bus and replacing it with cache in this same way (and 6600/6600XT and 5700/5700XT also regressed performance vs their predecessors in some situations just like 4060/4060 Ti). On top of that you have big fixed increases in manufacturing, shipping, etc, and the rest of the BOM is ballooning over time too (forget VRAM spot prices, ask automakers if their BOM is higher or lower than 2019... and it's not a small difference, it's probably 2x!)

In this world of organically-low performance increase within the low-end product segment, the impact of clearance sales exceeds the impact of new product generations. And this means we end up in this situation where reviewers do the "the new products suck, buy the ones we told you sucked last year" rubber-chicken routine year after year after year. But if everything is constantly bad, kinda nothing is, really. That's just the nature of the product segment.

And when you look at things like the 3060 Ti being $275 on clearance... the market consensus is that the old products are Good Enough. And the new products in fact may be worse in some ways, unless you are willing to step up in price to maintain the same product segment rather than the same price segment. Because TSMC is cranking the prices 25-50% every generation and Samsung was abnormally cheap to begin with, so there is a definite price step happening.

Hard to see how people don't understand that the $200-300 product segment is dying in the same way the $100-150 product segment already died. 6 months after launch you could buy a 7850 2GB for $150, or a 7750 for $100. What does $100 buy you in the new/retail GPU market these days? Does anybody actually seriously think the inability to deliver new $100-150 GPUs with enthusiast-tier performance is due to "greed" or "agreeing not to compete" as opposed to market realities? But people will defend it to the death that the privilege of making $200 GPUs is some massive profit opportunity that AMD and NVIDIA are just choosing to ignore.

We are in the end of silicon in some ways. Post-Moore's Law the costs have been spiraling, and now we are to the point where consumers are deciding that no, it's not worth the cost increases. And companies aren't going to cut their throats and run zero margin or sell at a loss either. And that eventually flows through to TSMC and ASML, and node research will slow (hyper-NA is already effectively canceled) and silicon research becomes incremental and iterative and slower rather than continuing to make even N7->N5->N3 sized progress. It can get slower.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by selectodude on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:03PM (#36626070)
Yeah I'm not sure how a GPU can be both slow and uncompetitive and also the best GPU available at any price. That would imply that they're extremely competitive.

Some people just have an ax to grind and will contort their facts to agree with preexisting thoughts and feelings. I think it's called cognitive dissonance.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by pxc on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:22PM (#36626231)
There are two senses of 'competitive' in play here: the sense in which a market can be 'competitive' or not by featuring alternatives that are comparable and whose successors leapfrog one another in various virtues over time, and the sense in which a product can be 'competitive' within a market by being more or less at least as good as whatever else is out there.

NVIDIA is definitely not 'competitive' in the sense of participating in a competitive market, or in the sense of being characterized by furious striving for rapid and continuous improvement. Many of their newer cards are barely 'competitive' with their own cards from a generation or two ago.

It's extremely clear to me what people mean when they say that NVIDIA or their GPUs are not meaningfully 'competitive'. I don't think it's that hard to see, actually.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by tomnipotent on Thursday July 06, 2023 @11:28PM (#36626730)
> Many of their newer cards are barely 'competitive'

The 4060 is the only card this generation that's a flop, and I wouldn't consider one in four being "many".

> I don't think it's that hard to see, actually.

It is if you're not looking or trying to be disingenuous. Every generation has introduced new features and had noticeable impacts on the consumer products in its category (games). DLSS alone has been a game-changer, pun intended.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by andrewstuart on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:24PM (#36626246)
AMD Radeon RX 7600 review: Another water-treading midrange GPU for $269

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/05/review-amds-269-rx-7...

“AMD fails again: RX 7600 review”

https://youtu.be/Yhoj2kfk-x0

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by photonerd on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:21PM (#36626220)
> the best GPU available at any price

That’s… very debatable. Don’t get me wrong, they’re definitely competitive at all levels but AMD absolutely is too & very arguably is better in some cases.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by Keyframe on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:24PM (#36626251)
Not really. Market also says otherwise.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by photonerd on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:41PM (#36626398)
Market says nothing of the sort! AMD is extremely popular still.

Plus while cards like the Nvidia RTX 4090 rank very highly they cost 60+% more than the extremely comparable AMD RX 7900 XTX.

That’s definitely not “best at any price”.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by Keyframe on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:51PM (#36626476)
When you say AMD is extremely popular still, yet Nvidia has what like 82-84% market share.. what are we actually talking about here in the context of "market talks"?
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by tomnipotent on Thursday July 06, 2023 @11:34PM (#36626768)
> Nvidia has what like 82-84% market share

That's the PC consumer market. Every Xbox and PlayStation shipped in the past decade has had an AMD GPU.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by Keyframe on Thursday July 06, 2023 @11:44PM (#36626831)
Yes, and that's a great ArtX doing and legacy tracing roots to SGI and Nintendo64 cooperation which ATI bought (into). However, it's not at all relevant since consumers aren't buying those for AMD GPUs, they are specialized (to consoles), and they're buying it for the brand of consoles themselves not because they have AMD GPU in it. Same parallel could then be drawn for intel's integrated GPUs. We're talking discrete GPU cards where market directly picks and chooses and it chose Nvidia that it's not even a contest anymore it seems. Even HPC area is done for almost.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by photonerd on Friday July 07, 2023 @01:04AM (#36627393)
The market however IS buying those. The market has spoken, remember?
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by Keyframe on Friday July 07, 2023 @02:20AM (#36627912)
That's not how it works. But I'll bite since you seem to follow a religion here - you can follow market talks from other end, revenue. It tells the same story, eerily so in fact.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by tomnipotent on Friday July 07, 2023 @07:13AM (#36630012)
> It tells the same story, eerily so in fact.

NVIDIA had $11bln in 2022 revenues from graphics vs. AMD's $6bln.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by Keyframe on Friday July 07, 2023 @08:46AM (#36630876)
Nvidia has 7b per quarter, AMD 5b (out of which 1.7 are all GPUs including consoles)
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by scns on Friday July 07, 2023 @04:31AM (#36628890)
Place one and three of the Top500 are AMD powered, Nvidias' highest is position four.

https://top500.org/lists/top500/2023/06/

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by Keyframe on Friday July 07, 2023 @05:43AM (#36629369)
Right, at the moment and that game changes all the time. However, we're talking share here where 5 out of top 10 are Nvidia (which also changes, yes - and not in favor of AMD but those "other" systems which are mostly under sanctions and can't buy Nvidia at scale). Top five accelerators / co-processors in TOP500 are Nvida per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOP500 . If you ask Nvidia they'll tell you 64-68% of TOP500 are Nvidia, but they count interconnect as well, not just GPU. Truth is somewhere down, probably within 1/3-1/2 area. It's really not hard to see AMD is putting up a fight, but against a giant. Nvidia outclassed AMD's sales in b2b as well as towards consumers by a big margin which is reflected both in revenue and ultimately market cap. Reason why that's so, since both are fabless, lies primarily within R&D Nvidia did execute on rather well - but that's just like my opinion, man. Everything else are facts.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by photonerd on Friday July 07, 2023 @01:03AM (#36627386)
One: that number is wildly inaccurate and only considers one tiny slice of the GPU market.

Two; iOS has a minority share of the market too. Less than a third of it. Guess you’d also call Apple unsuccessful in the mobile space?

No. No you would not. So, clearly market share of one segment is not the be-all end-all you are claiming.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by Keyframe on Friday July 07, 2023 @02:28AM (#36627954)
Not how that works, friend. Neither data nor debate. You can't hoist talk to another sphere and continue, but even if we do there's a way back. Let's dove.in, shall we? Data is accurate, reported by numerous providers. If you don't trust any of data providers you can always compare revenue size of two companies where AMD accounts for CPUs and those deaps with console manufacturers as well and still doesn't come close, in fact percentage relative still holds. Consoles are B2B deals, people don't buy consoles because AMD. Same for mobile or apple (to a degree, because apple sells apple), as well as integrated Intel GPUs. Where consumers and businesses have a direct pick and choose - they did, and it's Nvidia for the better part, 80%+ part.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by deelowe on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:47PM (#36626445)
Are we discussing gaming or AI? When it comes to AI solutions, AMD isn't even close.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by stcroixx on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:46PM (#36626440)
By having no competition and no reason to aggressively innovate.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by gxs on Thursday July 06, 2023 @10:34PM (#36626347)
He might be comparing to some of their older models that held up really well for a long time vs some of the disposable crap we get now.
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by mpreda on Friday July 07, 2023 @03:08AM (#36628257)
I use GPUs for FP64 (64-bit floating point) compute, and the best AMD GPU right now is still Radeon VII, which was released in 2019. Since then AMD split the GPU business into two lines, CDNA and RDNA, the point being to be able to charge much higher prices for the GPUs that provide good compute (i.e. CDNA).

The RDNA line is targeted at gamers. The reasoning apparently being "let's be careful that these RDNA GPUs are bad enough so they can't really be used for anything else but games; if the user is into compute, they should pay the big money for CDNA GPUs".

This is also reflected into the ROCm situation. ROCm has good support for CDNA GPUs, which is the hardware that is deployed in the huge national-lab GPU projects, where money is not an issue. The problem with that approach? normal people do not have access to CDNA GPUs that cost a multiple of 10000 USD apiece.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by AstralStorm on Friday July 07, 2023 @04:32AM (#36628903)
Indeed, you do need kind of a loss leader weak compute GPU to get people interested and experimenting with your platform. Cloud does not fulfill that purpose being too expensive, too limited and not secret enough.

Normal gaming nVidia GPUs fill that role. You need big guns, you buy a lot of their compute cards next.

AMD had decent compute capabiliites in their CDNA line, but they didn't follow through with drivers. The cards were pretty bad to try to use for compute with early ROCm, and just as bad for gaming.

Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by arein3 on Friday July 07, 2023 @11:48AM (#36633522)
You don't need a loss leader, just make the full drivers open source and I'll pay a premium
Re:Why Nvidia Keeps Winning: The Rise of an AI Giant by DeathArrow on Friday July 07, 2023 @04:39AM (#36628960)
> I'm curious: do you use GPUs? It's hard to take this claim seriously. Yes NVIDIA GPUs are expensive, but I don't think we live in the same matrix when you claim that their GPUs are slow and uncompetitive... Unless you have an alternative in mind, in which case I'm all ears.

I think he meant Nvidia GPUs are more expensive than Nvidia GPUs from previous generations.