Re:Russia Slides into Civil War
by bell-cot on Saturday June 24, 2023 @07:49AM
(#36457866)
This is interesting. The activity in Russia is looking a bit too widespread and real-world (vs. angry words & token action) for the usual dismissals - "there's been big talk and angry bickering between Prigozhin and the Ministry for a year or more" - to still seem credible.
But unless Prigozhin and his friends have somehow managed to correctly judge a psychological "magic moment" (to have huge numbers of Putin's seemingly-loyal people suddenly switch to Prigozhin's side), then this will end horrifically for them. Putin still controls ~99% of the military forces - including all the heavy stuff - if those soldiers stay loyal to him.
And from Ukraine's PoV, the whole situation is just FAR too good to be true.
Re:Russia Slides into Civil War
by ineedasername on Saturday June 24, 2023 @01:44PM
(#36460896)
Prigoshin has been extremely careful in past statements to avoid criticizing Putin directly. He has put the blame on underlings making military decisions. This leaves him latitude to craft a narrative that preserves his ability to come to terms with Putin loyalists at the same time that he shoves Putin aside (lethaly or otherwise) or relegates Putin to the role of a mouthpiece with a gun to his head. Putin can be cast in the mold of a Great Man betrayed by his closest allies as Prigozhin rushed in to help, and even with great reluctance (/s) takes the reigns of power after the purge.
Re:Russia Slides into Civil War
by mFixman on Saturday June 24, 2023 @08:20AM
(#36458064)
That video is so bizarre. Prigozhin is going way beyond the "2014 status-quo was good to protect Donbass Russian-speakers but 2022 invasion was a mistake" story that's common in Russian anti-war campaigners and actually denouncing the last decade of Russian military incursions, of which he was a major player.
What is he even trying to do?
There's no chance of an actual coup without support from the people or the army, and he's hated by both. His usual dramatic requests for more money and equipment won't work if the first thing you do is denounce the War, and nobody with morality or a conscience would have become the head of a Russian paramilitary group.
I'm as confused as anyone reading this. Is all of this an extremely risky bet to get strategic control of the Russian army? In that case it seems to have failed spectacularly.
Re:Russia Slides into Civil War
by api on Saturday June 24, 2023 @09:10AM
(#36458411)
My guess is that he caught wind of an attempt on his life or that he was going to be thrown under the bus and blamed for the whole debacle. In that case he would not have much to lose.
Maybe he hopes NATO, the US, or someone else will back him. Craziest thing would be for him to try to ally with Ukraine, but Ukraine could only help him by distracting the Russian army.
Or maybe he’s made a deal with someone like resource hungry India or China for support in exchange for ensuring that the spice will flow and at a very reasonable price.
Russia sits on enough natural gas and metals alone to make it one of the biggest prizes for kleptocrats in the world. See: the resource curse.
Re:Russia Slides into Civil War
by gsatic on Saturday June 24, 2023 @08:25AM
(#36458096)
Just wondering why announce a coup attempt sitting so far away from the capital? It feels like a suicide run...unless he has supporters in Moscow. But even then it seems a bit nuts launching it from so far away from the power center.
Re:Russia Slides into Civil War
by fortani on Saturday June 24, 2023 @08:35AM
(#36458176)
Even the live address by Putin [1] seems to have been behind a greenscreen or edited screen and if you listen closely, there seems to be an audible din that seems to be from the whirling sounds from a jet plane.
Maybe he was relying on his allies eg: General Surovikin. Nevertheless, he is correct to sense that many in the Russian Army are unhappy with how the war is panning out. But he is either miscalculating or misreading the situation, or see this as an existential crisis for himself and Wagner [1]
Re:Russia Slides into Civil War
by tim333 on Saturday June 24, 2023 @11:15AM
(#36459386)
Interesting. In his TV interview of a month or so ago Budanov, head of Ukr intelligence was saying the war would end shortly through changes in Russia but was cryptic as to what. Maybe he knew this was in the works.
Something historic is happening right before our eyes, and it doesn't make sense to bury our heads in the sand. Wonder if posts like the outbreak of Covid got flagged too?
But unless Prigozhin and his friends have somehow managed to correctly judge a psychological "magic moment" (to have huge numbers of Putin's seemingly-loyal people suddenly switch to Prigozhin's side), then this will end horrifically for them. Putin still controls ~99% of the military forces - including all the heavy stuff - if those soldiers stay loyal to him.
And from Ukraine's PoV, the whole situation is just FAR too good to be true.
What is he even trying to do?
There's no chance of an actual coup without support from the people or the army, and he's hated by both. His usual dramatic requests for more money and equipment won't work if the first thing you do is denounce the War, and nobody with morality or a conscience would have become the head of a Russian paramilitary group.
I'm as confused as anyone reading this. Is all of this an extremely risky bet to get strategic control of the Russian army? In that case it seems to have failed spectacularly.
Maybe he hopes NATO, the US, or someone else will back him. Craziest thing would be for him to try to ally with Ukraine, but Ukraine could only help him by distracting the Russian army.
Or maybe he’s made a deal with someone like resource hungry India or China for support in exchange for ensuring that the spice will flow and at a very reasonable price.
Russia sits on enough natural gas and metals alone to make it one of the biggest prizes for kleptocrats in the world. See: the resource curse.
"Plane used by Belarusian top officials and Lukashenko family lands in Türkiye" - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408310/
"Reportedly, Medvedev was evacuated from Moscow region together with his family and assistants." - https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725552688973987...
"More and more private jets with no declared destination or Turkey as destination appear over Moscow." - https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672523999425994752
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZB3FOqBUxA
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200
Maybe he was relying on his allies eg: General Surovikin. Nevertheless, he is correct to sense that many in the Russian Army are unhappy with how the war is panning out. But he is either miscalculating or misreading the situation, or see this as an existential crisis for himself and Wagner [1]
[1] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens...
https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1672610521718177793?ref_src...
Fuck your downvotes you morons. I was right.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452290
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36457433
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36456034
Something historic is happening right before our eyes, and it doesn't make sense to bury our heads in the sand. Wonder if posts like the outbreak of Covid got flagged too?
This is major world news and every story is getting pulled.