News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on Russia Slides into Civil War.

Re:Russia Slides into Civil War by bell-cot on Saturday June 24, 2023 @07:49AM (#36457866)
This is interesting. The activity in Russia is looking a bit too widespread and real-world (vs. angry words & token action) for the usual dismissals - "there's been big talk and angry bickering between Prigozhin and the Ministry for a year or more" - to still seem credible.

But unless Prigozhin and his friends have somehow managed to correctly judge a psychological "magic moment" (to have huge numbers of Putin's seemingly-loyal people suddenly switch to Prigozhin's side), then this will end horrifically for them. Putin still controls ~99% of the military forces - including all the heavy stuff - if those soldiers stay loyal to him.

And from Ukraine's PoV, the whole situation is just FAR too good to be true.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Russia Slides into Civil War by ineedasername on Saturday June 24, 2023 @01:44PM (#36460896)
Prigoshin has been extremely careful in past statements to avoid criticizing Putin directly. He has put the blame on underlings making military decisions. This leaves him latitude to craft a narrative that preserves his ability to come to terms with Putin loyalists at the same time that he shoves Putin aside (lethaly or otherwise) or relegates Putin to the role of a mouthpiece with a gun to his head. Putin can be cast in the mold of a Great Man betrayed by his closest allies as Prigozhin rushed in to help, and even with great reluctance (/s) takes the reigns of power after the purge.
[ Parent | on HN ]