And the first mobile phone was sold to the public in 1949. It took time to catch on. People needed it to be convenient and accessible. VR/AR is neither convenient nor accessible today.
You can use your iPhone camera for an AR experience, but your hands are occupied holding the phone so you can't do much at all when using it.
The whole meta verse thing seems like it was 100% hype building by people with money invested in it and none of the platforms had any users.
If VR was so compelling, people would buy the headset to get the experience. It's not so they don't.
Impossible. My extended circle which leans tech overall is maybe 4%. And many just tried it and aren’t really actively using it.
They’re counting numbers very funny.
Half the population is above 45, and it’s not above 2% for that cohort they barely hear about it on the news and have no idea how to even sign up for it.
Having seen this before, I don't think the numbers are incredible. Everyone I know has signed up for an OpenAI account, and probably 25% are paying for one. Granted I'm in the HN bubble, but this is so 1995.
Most gaming will be casual, in VR just like non-VR.
But there are much better and deeper games in both cases.
VR just isn't that wanted by average people. "Immersion" just isn't a magic panacea that older execs seem to think it is, and being in a "virtual world" while you play most games don't make them better games! Oddly enough, most people don't play videogames to emulate real activities, but rather to play games, with their own made up rules and concepts. FIFA on the Xbox is nothing like actual soccer, but the players prefer it like that, and a FIFA that requires you to kick the ball with your real foot and costs hundreds of dollars is NOT better as a game, or more fun to most people, than "flat" FIFA.
We literally already went over this with the Wii; shoehorning in "realism" into games that don't benefit from it just makes shitty games.
Actually its more like 30 years.
People get too focused on devices and the recent storyline around Google/Oculus/Meta/Apple etc. Any and all devices are and will always be WIP, they get refined once there is strong demand in the direction of that demand. The concept and experierence of immersive / interactive computing is much older and we should not ignore the lessons it may try to teach us.
What we have here is a new round of device refinement in anticipation of strong demand for an alternative computer interface that did not materialize in several decades - even though it could have.
It may be that VR is an exception. Some people are arguing that there is some sort of threshold that needs to be reached. Its possible.
But this is not the usual pattern. People are extremely adept and keen at glossing over grave limitations and filling in the blanks if a technology helps them achieve something relevant to them.
How much money has ChatGPT invested? Billions.
GPT1 is from 2018, but neural networks have more than 70 years now. VR have more than 30 years since the early prototypes.
If I could replace my monitor with a portable device that would grant me huge virtual desktop space I would pay 3500$
Right now I'm waiting to see the feedback and for the early adopter issues to get ironed out.
But I'd say this demand is far greater than gaming. Being able to work from any rental where I can plop a keyboard and laptop without having to deal with bad desk height and non adjustable chair/lack of monitors is huge - it would literally mean I could work from anywhere.
Right now I can't - and I've tried many times. Experience is terrible and after a few days of bad desk/chair combo, even lugging a small 24inch monitor in the car, I get insane cramps/headaches from neck strain or back pain from bad posture.
If VR can solve this I know a lot of people would buy into that.
People keep parroting this line, but have you ever actually tried this? There's way more to discomfort in VR than just pixel density.
But it's been like 7 years at this point ? If Apple has decided to launch it I would assume they worked out the kinks.
I'm not buying it until I see enough evidence it's usable (doubt I'll get to try it for 8 hours without buying one).
But the practicality of not being able to see the people around me gave me the screaming heeby-jeebies. I just wasn't comfortable not knowing who was near me.
I will happily have 3 monitors in realspace just so I can turn my head to see who's near me.
How big was the demand for the first mobile phone?
ChatGPT was the first chatbot to cross the magic threshold, after which point consumers enthusiastically adopted it.
AI has been around since the 50s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_artificial_intellig...
VR has been around since roughly a decade later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#History
... AR / VR may have the same promise. But the implementation is sufficiently far away, that most people look at it and think "Wow, really cool toy. I don't have a use for it right now", and walk away. They'll be back if / when that tipping point arrives, but unlike ChatGPT, its not here, not yet.
There is no demand for VR outside gaming. Efforts to try and create that demand are failing.