Are there betting odds anywhere for regime change/invasion of Taiwan?

I would put it as ~1% per year right now, but perhaps other investors see it differently.

Metaculus puts the odds much higher - around 3%/year.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-inv...

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-...

If you believe that Taiwan has a 1% chance of being invaded per year and that this event would remove your ownership then the long term value of purchasing this stock is negative

Exactly

Maybe further question is, would invasion of Taiwan change the ownership structure in total sense. Or just for example 51% moving to Chinese hands.

Production capacity losses might be realistic scenario and sales to west going down.

The image of some western white guy complaining about unfair it is the China invalidates his ownership in the TSMC following a genocidal invasion of Taiwan is pretty good, I’ll give you that.

I think the big thing in this space was Buffet recently pulling out of TSMC saying he loved the company but thought the tensions made it too risky. I don't know what that puts the odds for a full on invasion of Taiwan at but tensions in the area are definitely impacting real investment decisions.

This seems inaccurate. If China will invade (at least 50%), they will definitely do so in the next 10 years or so.

So a reasonable guess based on that assumption would be ~6.5% per year.

Based on what? This sounds like you just pulling numbers out of the air, in which case 1% vs. 6.5% means comparatively nothing. And what makes you so sure that if China invades Taiwan they would definitely do it by 2033, and there's a 0% chance it'd happen in 2034?

I'm not trying to be [overly] pedantic but HN is littered with comments basically just making shit up in a language of confidence and precision.

I believe Xi Jinping has said something to the effect of "Taiwan should be a part of China by the end of this decade," although I'm having a hard time pinning down the exact quote. Although it should also be noted that Xi also tends to emphasize his desire to see Taiwan unified peacefully rather than force, so it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unification.

As you say, 1% versus 6.5% is a level of precision that isn't helpful. The way I prefer to think of it is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is sufficiently probable as to warrant making contingency plans for such an event, but not so probable as to warrant making active efforts to avoid Taiwan.

"it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unification."

Taiwan is 30+Million people. I should imagine that would require a massive military undertaking.

He doesn't deserve downvotes, he gave his assumptions and people can make their own judgements. His odds sound reasonable to me.

Really what odds for TMSC disruption which is much different and permissible.