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Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by titzer on Thursday May 04, 2023 @05:06PM (#35822087)
> It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software.

I...kinda don't want this? UIs have already changed in so many different fits, starts, waves, and cycles. I used to have skills. But I have no skills now. Nothing works like it used to. Yeah they were tricky to use but I cannot imagine that a murky AI interface is going to be any easier to use, and certainly impossible to master.

Even if it is easier to use, I am not sure I want that either. I don't know where the buttons are. I don't know what I can do and what I can't. And it won't stay the same, dodging my feckless attempts to commit to memory how it works and get better at it...?

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by amelius on Thursday May 04, 2023 @05:26PM (#35822302)
An AI interface in Office brings back memories of Clippy.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by taneq on Thursday May 04, 2023 @07:25PM (#35823438)
We may not have seen the last of Clippy yet… https://gwern.net/fiction/clippy
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by Izkata on Thursday May 04, 2023 @07:50PM (#35823648)
Now imagine Clippy on a car touchscreen.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by speedgoose on Friday May 05, 2023 @01:05AM (#35825405)
NIO sells cars with a tiny cute robot that moves on the dashboard, named NOMI.

A lot of people hate it as it’s closer to Google assistant than GPT4 and it makes mechanical noise when it rotates but I don’t think it’s a terrible idea.

Anthropomorphism, the attribution of human traits to things, is common with cars.

I would like my car to run a LLM instead of being so stupid at understanding my voice commands.

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by jimmySixDOF on Thursday May 04, 2023 @10:38PM (#35824645)
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by jjoonathan on Thursday May 04, 2023 @05:59PM (#35822692)
It was a sad day when I realized I was systematically overinvesting in skills on churning technology and that my investments would never amortize. Suddenly my parents' stubborn unwillingness to bother learning anything technological made complete sense and I had to sharply adjust my own patience threshold sharply downwards.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by TeMPOraL on Thursday May 04, 2023 @06:21PM (#35822886)
There are some software tools where the investment pays back, and has been over decades. Microsoft Office (in part because it's not reinventing itself, but rather accrues new features; in part because everyone else copies its UI patterns). Photoshop. Emacs.

With modern software, I find it that there isn't much to learn at all - in the past decade, seems to only be removing features and interaction modes, never adding anything new.

Still, I don't regret having learned so much all those years ago. It gives me an idea what the software could do. What it was supposed to do. This means I often think of multi-step solutions for problems most people around me can't solve unless there's a dedicated SaaS for it. As frustrating as it often is to not be able to do something you could 10 years ago, sometimes I discover that some of the more advanced features still remain in modern toy-like software.

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by eternalban on Thursday May 04, 2023 @07:19PM (#35823388)
Office UI was reinvented at least one time. I remember when that god awful ribbon showed up.

"In 2003, I was given the chance to lead the redesign of the most well-known suite of productivity software in the world: Microsoft Office.

"Every day, over a billion people depended on apps like Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and Outlook, so it was a daunting task. This was the first redesign in the history of Office, and the work that we did ended up shaping the standard productivity experience for the next two decades."

...

https://jensenharris.com/home/office

https://jensenharris.com/home/ribbon

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by TeMPOraL on Thursday May 04, 2023 @08:00PM (#35823736)
That's not what I mean. The ribbon, whatever you think of it, only moved some functionality around. It didn't actually change the way old functionality worked. All the things you knew how to do, you could still do - you only had to learn their new placement.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by heartbreak on Thursday May 04, 2023 @09:08PM (#35824159)
If we consider the Word 2.0 (for Windows) era as the beginning of a graphical Microsoft Office suite, then graphical Office has had the ribbon for as long as it didn’t: 16 years.

I’m still waiting for people to stop complaining about it.

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by ipaddr on Thursday May 04, 2023 @11:31PM (#35824899)
That move was awful
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by oblio on Saturday May 13, 2023 @12:01AM (#35925392)
For you.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by ethbr0 on Thursday May 04, 2023 @10:54PM (#35824721)
The irony is that LLMs are actually the real solution that Ribbon took an awkward half step towards -- how to quickly get to what a user actually wants to do.

Originally: Taxonomically organized nested menus, culminating at a specific function or option screen

Now: Usage-optimized Ribbon (aka Huffman coding for the set off all options), culminating at a specific function or option screen

Future: LLM powered semantic search across all options and actions, generating the exact change you want to implement

Why have an "email signature" options page at all, when an LLM can stitch together the calls required to change it, invoked directly from English text?

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by mook on Friday May 05, 2023 @02:27AM (#35825848)
You missed Office 2000: magically disappearing menu items. It was pretty confusing.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by ethbr0 on Friday May 05, 2023 @07:54AM (#35828092)
Oof. I did. Ribbon felt enough like magically disappearing menu items to me.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by TeMPOraL on Friday May 05, 2023 @02:54AM (#35826087)
> Why have an "email signature" options page at all, when an LLM can stitch together the calls required to change it, invoked directly from English text?

10-20 years from now? Maybe. It depends on whether or not the industry will cut corners in this part of the experience. I find it hard to predict which features get polished, and which are forever left barely-functioning. Might depend on which are on "critical path" to selling subscriptions.

0-10 years from now? We'll still need the options page.

"Email signature" options page provides visibility, consistency, and predictability. That is, you can see what your e-mail signatures are, you are certain those are the ones that will be used for your message, under conditions defined in the UI pane, and if you change something, you know exactly how it will affect your future e-mails.

LLMs are quite good at handling input, though not yet reliable enough. However, as GUI replacement, they are ill-suited for providing output - they would be describing what the result is, whereas the GUI of today display the result directly. As the writers' adage goes, "show, don't tell".

(That said, the adage is way overused in actual storytelling.)

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by ethbr0 on Friday May 05, 2023 @07:52AM (#35828071)
In this case, the LLM isn't generating the output. It's only generating the sequence of actions to implement the user input.

Think less "make a signature for me" and more "here's the signature I want to use, make it my default."

Then the model would map to either Outlook / Options / Signature / fields or directly to whateverSetSignature().

From that more modest routing requirement, it seems a slam dunk for even current models (retrained to generate options paths / function calls rather than English text).

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by jjoonathan on Friday May 05, 2023 @09:29AM (#35828965)
Good local search gets you 80% of the way there. 20 years ago, this was an inspiring UX trend (Quicksilver / Subject Verb Object), but it fizzled. Apple kept the torch lit with menu search and it has been brilliant, but limited to their platform, although I am pleased to see that MS Office got menu search in Oct 2022.

LLMs could certainly help loosen the input requirements, not to mention aim some sorely needed hype back in this direction. I am afraid that they will murder the latency and compute requirements, but hey, progress is always two steps forward one step back.

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by wing-_-nuts on Friday May 05, 2023 @11:40AM (#35830698)
I was never terribly impressed with local search on os x but maybe I didn't use it enough.

For a while, ubuntu had a local search where you could hit a button (super?) start typing, and it would drill through menus at lightning speed

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by CapsAdmin on Friday May 05, 2023 @01:44AM (#35825606)
Maybe my time will come some day (I'm 32 years old), but I always tell myself that learning how to learn and being interested in new/different technology is how I keep myself updated. The latter is probably difficult to maintain, but this whole AI thing has given me a new pastime hobby I could never imagine.

Maybe I'll reject instead of embrace the next big thing once I'm old enough?

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by SanderNL on Friday May 05, 2023 @01:47AM (#35825625)
I find focusing on fundamental tools and concepts like terminals and text mode editors like vi and emacs will pay off handsomely.

All the fancy dialogs will switch around every few years.

This mindset extends to stuff like Word. Whenever you do something think hard about the essence of what you’re doing. Realize this should have been a script, but due to constraints in reality you are forced to use some wanky GUI.

If you look at it like this, you won’t care the pixels move around. Your mental model will be solid and building that is 90% of the work.

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by kragen on Friday May 05, 2023 @10:27AM (#35829663)
i'm using a web browser broadly similar to mosaic (01994) on a site that works similarly to early reddit (02005). in another window i'm running irssi (01999) to chat on irc (01988, but i've only been using it since 01994) inside screen (01987, but i've only been using it since 01994), to which i'm connected with ssh (01996) and mosh (02011, but i didn't start using it until last month). in my unix shell window (mate-terminal, but a thin wrapper around libvte (02002), mostly emulating a vt100 from 01978) i'm running a bourne shell (01979, but really it's brian fox's better reimplementation which he started in 01989) in which i just ran yt-dlp (which has to be updated every couple of months to keep working, but mostly has the same command-line flags as youtube-dl, first released in 02006) to download a video encoded in h.264 (02003) in an mpeg-4 container (01998), and then play it with mpv (02013, but forked from and sharing command-line flags with mplayer (02000)). mpv displays the video with a gpu renderer (new) on a display server running x11 (01987).

in another browser tab i'm running jupyter (the renamed ipython notebook from 02011) to graph some dsp calculations with matplotlib (02003, but mostly providing the plotting functions from matlab (01984)) which i made with python (01991, but i've only been using it since 02000) and numpy (02006, but a mostly compatible reimplementation of numeric from 01995, which i've been using since 02003). in jupyter i can format my equations in latex (01984, but for equations basically the same as plain tex82 from 01982, but i've only been using them since 01999) and my text in markdown (02004, though jupyter's implementation supports many extensions). i keep the jupyter notebook in git (02005, but i've only been using it since 02009, when i switched from cvs (01986, but i've only been using it since about 01998)). the dsp stuff is largely applications of the convolution theorem (01822 or 01912) and hogenauer filters (01981).

i do most of my programming that isn't in jupyter in gnu emacs (01984) except that i prefer to do java stuff in intellij idea, which i first used in 02006

earlier this year, my wife and i wrote our wedding invitation rsvp site in html (01990, but using a lot of stuff added up to 02000) and css2 (01998) plus a few things like corner-radius (dunno, 02006?) and a little bit of js (01995, but in practical terms 02004), with the backend done in django (02005) backed by sqlite (02000, but this was sqlite3 (02004), but sqlite mostly just implements sql (01974, first publicly available in 01979, but mostly the 01992 ansi standard) which in turn mostly just implements codd's relational data model (01970) and acid transactions (01983), all of which i've been using since 01996). and of course python, emacs, and git. most of the css debugging was done with chromium's web inspector (present from the first chrome release in 02008, a clone of firebug (02006)).

for looking up these dates just now, i used google's newish structured search results, which mostly pull information from wikipedia (02001); i also used stack overflow (02008) and its related sites.

the median of the years above is 01998, with 25% and 75% quartiles of 01987 and 02004, which i calculated using r (01997, but a reimplementation of s (01976)). if we assume that each new introduction listed above displaced some existing skill, then we can vaguely handwave at a half-life of about 25 years for these churning technology skills, which to me seems like enough time for a lot of them to amortize

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by duderific on Thursday May 04, 2023 @08:11PM (#35823817)
If it is seamlessly integrated, the AI won't even surface in a UI. You will just be presented with different options in the UI, which theoretically would be more precisely curated by the AI that you don't even see.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by CuriouslyC on Thursday May 04, 2023 @10:19PM (#35824565)
That runs counter to some very well established UI principles. People get confused when their interface changes except as a result of direct interaction. Open up a menu in response to a click, yes; reorganize menus to "optimize" them based on what a model predicts a person is going to do, no.

The killer is being able to tell a program what you want it to do, then not having to fuddle with buttons or menus at all (unless you want to tweak things).

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by ukuina on Friday May 05, 2023 @02:21AM (#35825806)
While I agree in principle, AI-infusion in UIs does not need to break convention. For example, AI suggestions could subtly highlight menu options that would be most useful in an auto-detected workflow. We could also create a persistent area on the UI for the AI to "speak up".
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by bombolo on Thursday May 04, 2023 @08:26PM (#35823906)
shell is the same
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by zztop44 on Thursday May 04, 2023 @11:42PM (#35824976)
I once volunteered with a older woman. She’d been a computer programmer in the 70s, using punch cards and, later, Pascal.

Then she had kids and stopped working for a while and the technology moved on without her. Now she’s like any other old person, doesn’t know how to use a computer and gets flustered when eg: trying to switch from the browser back to Word. Her kids and grandkids clown on her for being hopeless with computers.

I asked her what it was she found difficult about modern computers compared to what she worked with 50 years ago. She said it’s the multitasking. The computers she had worked with just did one thing at once.

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by yantrams on Friday May 05, 2023 @01:30AM (#35825526)
Interesting story. Thanks for sharing this. I have a somewhat similar story with my failure to transition from paltformers / sidescrollers to 3D games. I just couldn't do it.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by jamiek88 on Friday May 05, 2023 @03:07AM (#35826198)
Me too! My brain just won’t let me immerse.

It was when sonic went 3D that it all began for me.

Wait…he’s running away from me?

Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by rightbyte on Friday May 05, 2023 @07:19AM (#35827788)
Sonic 3d was a bad game. Did you play Super Mario 64?
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by dekhn on Friday May 05, 2023 @03:18PM (#35833931)
I worked with somebody who developed MULTICS but struggled constantly to do even the most basic tasks on a Mac even after using Macs for a decade. It was painful to watch them slowly move a mouse across the screen to the apple, take about ten seconds to click it, and then get confused about how to see system info.
Re:Google “We Have No Moat, and Neither Does OpenAI” by titzer on Friday May 05, 2023 @03:40PM (#35834182)
Indeed. I like the fact that my stove has only the knobs and buttons on it (other than a 7-segment LED display). I am master of my stove because I am pretty sure I have explored the complete state space of it by now.