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Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by sschueller on Sunday April 30, 2023 @04:11AM (#35760576)
They will never launch within 8 weeks. That time frame is insane and not enough to repair the damage at the launch site.

Also I don't expect a FAA to give an ok until SpaceX has cleaned up the surrounding area.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by phire on Sunday April 30, 2023 @04:34AM (#35760693)
Also, it's not enough to simply repair the damage.

They need do proper failure analysis and engineer a solution so this damage won't happen next time, 6-8 weeks seems way too short. Elon is suggesting just slapping down a shitload of steal, but I really doubt that will meet standards.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by sschueller on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:20AM (#35760944)
I don't understand why Elon insists on re-inventing the wheel when we know how to deal with rockets this size. The Saturn V was similar in size and power, the launch pad at Cape Canaveral is still standing, just build a copy.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by cschmatzler on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:27AM (#35760983)
Super Heavy has more than double the thrust of Saturn V, how is that similar?
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by jorlow on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:25AM (#35760969)
Starship is all about finding ways to whittle down margins from the status quo
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by zpeti on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:28AM (#35760987)
I mean challenging the “well known” engineering orthodoxies like rockets landing being almost impossible and not worth doing seem to have worked out ok for him?

I love it when people take one small issue and point out how stupid he’s being, yet ignore how by challenging every point of engineering on rockets he’s almost at the point of making a mars transportation system possible.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by sschueller on Sunday April 30, 2023 @06:16AM (#35761194)
Rockets landing was never considered impossible, NASA even built and tested several such vehicles long ago. What was determined is that is is not economically viable which even SpaceX has started to realize on some launches where they ditch the landing in order to be able to carry more payload.

The launch pad at Cape Canaveral may not be exactly what Starship needs but it would be a good start. Like flame trenches and placing the fuel storage tanks far enough away from the launch pad.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by TheSpiceIsLife on Sunday April 30, 2023 @06:45AM (#35761346)
What was stopping any other launch system from sending fuel tanks to LEO and beyond?

Probably not a whole lot technically. By now we could have had several fuel tanks in Mars orbit and a few on the ground, rather than all those orbiters and ground vehicles.

Trade-offs.

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Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by TheSpiceIsLife on Monday May 01, 2023 @08:54AM (#35772120)
Doesn't look like my tone came across correctly.

I agree with you.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by martindbp on Sunday April 30, 2023 @06:28AM (#35761248)
They obviously took a calculated risk. If they never took any risks they wouldn't be where they are today. It's easy to criticize in hindsight, but you win some you lose some.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by inglor_cz on Sunday April 30, 2023 @07:20AM (#35761530)
In Boca Chica, underground water is too high AFAIK. Any trench system would risk being flooded.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by Gwypaas on Sunday April 30, 2023 @07:56AM (#35761749)
They had done static fires at half thrust, equaling the thrust Saturn V produces without issue.

Why spend hundreds of millions or in the case of Saturn V billions on a governmentally overspecced launchpad when a launch mount and a concrete pad would do just fine?

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by Zigurd on Sunday April 30, 2023 @09:03AM (#35762162)
Manned space exploration is hard to "overspec." It is risky af under the best circumstances. This illustrates a conflict in Starship design goals: Big enough to colonize Mars but cheap enough to lunch Starlink satellites. Might not be reconcilable.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by Gwypaas on Sunday April 30, 2023 @10:21AM (#35762812)
Rather, it is incredibly easy to overspec. Everything is important and then you get SLS like costs. Compare to Falcon 9 which took a similar path to Starship and today works beautifully for human launches.

Take the SLS crawler looking to cost $1 - $1.5B. What a waste of resources.

https://spacenews.com/nasa-audit-reveals-massive-overruns-in...

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by Zigurd on Sunday April 30, 2023 @10:50AM (#35763048)
Apollo cost 2.5% of USA's entire GDP, every year, for ten years. Space exploration is insanely expensive. It is unclear if the requirements of space exploration can be met while making a rocket intended to be at least 5X cheaper per kilogram to orbit.

Trying to meet wildly divergent, even contradictory goals, is a good way to build a doomed project. Now add schedule pressure to remain the sole vendor for a lunar lander and you get bad project management decisions.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by Gwypaas on Sunday April 30, 2023 @11:17AM (#35763325)
Spacex have already succeeded with Falcon 9? Starship is the next magnitude in cost reduction following the same formula.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by Zigurd on Sunday April 30, 2023 @12:41PM (#35764242)
I am not doubting that Falcon 9 is a great success. It took 6 years of attempts to reliably land the Falcon 9 first stage, at some cost to capacity. The second stage is not recoverable and it appears unlikely it ever will be.

"...following the same formula" of rapid iteration is what they are doing. It worked well for learning how to fabricate a giant rocket out of stainless steel. That formula is bumping up against the cost of iteration. They're trying an Agile-ish approach to making the biggest ever rocket when Agile might be insufficient to, for example, make car software at VW Group.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by Zigurd on Sunday April 30, 2023 @09:00AM (#35762141)
He's got many reasons. Some of them are probably not good reasons. If the project fails, it's a good bet some of the reasons are in conflict. Also, some reasons drive bad decision making as the project proceeds. This is just a big, vivid example of how many projects die:

1. Not giving up project goals or specs when they start to look dubious

2. Sticking with cheap (in time, money, or both) solutions when more-reliable solutions might be called for

3. Letting sunk costs drive bad decisions about the above and other project related decisions

In this case there are unpleasant downstream effects of making safer decisions: Starship might not be the Moon lander Artemis 3 should rely on. All changes made in Boca Chica will have to be retrofitted to Kennedy Space Center.

Lastly, Musk has made pronouncements about Starlink's viability resting on Starship. That could be hyperbole, but Starlink needs 30-100X more subscribers to become a first tier telecom provider, and it can't support that many without the planned constellation of tens of thousands of full-size second-generation satellites.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by detrites on Sunday April 30, 2023 @04:39AM (#35760721)
Doesn't the specific "pad standpoint," qualifier at the beginning of the statement mean to make clear that the pad will be ready in 6-8 weeks, not the rocket?

Otherwise, why prefix with it?

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by samwillis on Sunday April 30, 2023 @04:16AM (#35760602)
Yes, this is "Elon time", so x2. Four months?

If the piles under the launch mount aren't damaged (which would surprise me!), it's "just" filling in the hole, pour some concrete and cover with the new water cooled steel plate. Then replace any other stage zero kit that got damaged (the tall tanks particularly)

I think he's probably right the longest thing to solve though is flight qualification with the FAA.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by rhaway84773 on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:12AM (#35760903)
x2? x10 has historically been more accurate.

I also love how Elonauts have decided that FAA qualification is a mere trivial formality as opposed to a necessary check on a founder deciding to go ahead with a premature launch because he wants to talk about it on 4/20 for example.

The fact that the FAA check will be the longest is no defense. It’s a reflection of the fact that the FAA gave him an easy way out and all the critics of the FAA’s decision (including flagged stories on HN) turned out to be absolutely right.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by zpeti on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:30AM (#35760999)
Sigh. Yes, perhaps you are accurate that it’s not always 2x but your 10x things is pretty childish.

So what if it’s not 2x but more? Why are people like you so resentful of someone building something cool you literally can’t wait to point out any flaws. It’s sad tbh.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by dmreedy on Sunday April 30, 2023 @06:20AM (#35761219)
Because unrealistic representation of timelines can sound like a non-technical manager eager to claim credit for arduous research and mechanical work they don't seem to understand enough to give accurate forecasts for, just as much it might sound like an excited geek who can't wait for a cool thing.

Maybe it sounds like aggressive and optimistic goals. Maybe it sounds like someone who doesn't understand that nine women can't give birth to a child in one month, but cracks the whip like they could if they tried hard enough.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by AlexandrB on Sunday April 30, 2023 @06:22AM (#35761224)
Have you seen the footage of the debris super heavy launched into the ocean/surrounding wilderness? I'm fine with "someone building something cool", I'm sick and tired of those same individuals pushing the negative externalities on the rest of society through lack of investment/planning.

If I was your neighbor and build a potato gun, but the potatoes kept ending up in your yard, would you be happy for me or ticked off?

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by zpeti on Sunday April 30, 2023 @07:10AM (#35761480)
Hardly any one lives there, and the people who get compensated. Wildlife is not going to have major, and I say major issues from this.

You sound like the environmentalists you don’t want to build solar parks in the Sahara because it gets in the way of a few goats.

Take a step back. Perspective.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by v0idzer0 on Monday May 01, 2023 @11:17AM (#35774002)
What else can we whine about? Did the rocket maybe hit an insect on its way up?
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by threeseed on Sunday April 30, 2023 @06:41AM (#35761328)
Cybertruck, Robotaxi, FSD ?

We are still waiting for all three many years after Musk promised they were coming soon.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by sidibe on Sunday April 30, 2023 @09:27AM (#35762326)
Roadster, Dojo (this one I remember actually believing he sounded so sure it was a done deal years ago), Semi. 10x is generous given his history , can't believe how many people still find him credible
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by zpeti on Sunday April 30, 2023 @09:34AM (#35762399)
Yet he’s still beating blue origin, rocket labs, every major car company trying to create electric cars, and a charging network.

Promising 10 awesome things and delivering 2 still gives you more awesome things than you started with.

At best you are a grumpy old man who isn’t happy with anything, at worst a resentful anti success advocate.

What have you created in the last 10 years?

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by sidibe on Sunday April 30, 2023 @10:18AM (#35762788)
I like seeing people be successful. With Elon there is always too much celebrating of announcements vs celebrating successes. He's done well selling EVs and Falcon 9 is great. Mostly he lies though so that's what I assume with any forward looking statements
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by v0idzer0 on Monday May 01, 2023 @11:38AM (#35774351)
It’s not lying. It’s being wrong in the timeline for deeply complex technical innovations. This is like me calling my engineers liars every time a task takes longer than expected (which is nearly every time). This whole “predict the exact day humanity will solve its most ambitious technical challenges like self driving cars or you’re a liar” attitude is incredibly toxic
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by sidibe on Monday May 01, 2023 @05:29PM (#35779424)
Being wrong once on a date 5 years away isn't necessarily lying. Being many years wrong on frequent "by the end of the year" predictions in a way that happens to help you sell products is lying.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by v0idzer0 on Monday May 01, 2023 @11:40AM (#35774398)
How many times has a simple coding task taken longer that you estimated? I guess you’re a liar too.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by HybridCurve on Sunday April 30, 2023 @07:37AM (#35761642)
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/failure-is-your-friend-2/

Space shuttle challenger disaster discussed at 17:35.

Nobody is resenting anything cool, they are pointing out that when it comes to packing 4kt worth of explosives into a vehicle and flinging into the air you better take your time to get it right.

This is a private company which is not directly accountable to the government as NASA would be. There won't be a congressional committee holding them to account or removing the people in charge if they fuck up. Sure they might get a good scolding from congress if they make mistakes, but they'll get to pay their way through the courts to shirk accountability.

The fact that the FTS failed on top of all the other problems is cause enough for alarm and indicative that they are not being thorough enough. It was sloppy work, and when Elon opens his mouth about unrealistic timelines he is openly stating that he will continue to apply pressure on the team to rush things and cut corners for results. There is nothing cool about running an aerospace program like that.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by zpeti on Sunday April 30, 2023 @09:41AM (#35762448)
Your point is a copy paste of every negative failed spacex launch reaction.

Yet somehow they’re still the most successful rocket creating entity ever, and are close to creating a launch system that will reduce launch costs by 100x.

So what exactly is not working here, and why are YOU so upset about it?

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by inglor_cz on Sunday April 30, 2023 @02:48PM (#35765426)
Falcon 9 Block 5 is literally the most reliable rocket of humanity as of today (the longest streak of successful launches ever), and on the top of it, partially reusable and fairly cheap to launch. It took several explosions (that you seem to consider "sloppy") to get there, but the result exceeds anything that competition came up with.

There is an adage that people who love sausages shouldn't visit the meat plants where these are made. This is harder to do with the development process that SpaceX uses, given that it is all over the news and you can't easily escape the sight. But please do not confuse the development process with the end product.

As of now, Starship is in the not-even-beta phase. Its current problems have no relation to how the mature rocket will perform.

Note that, unlike other vendors, SpaceX didn't dare to launch human crew with their Falcon 9 until they were very sure that the rocket performs well and has a very good launch record. Compare this attitude to many other human-rated vehicles that actually killed astronauts. Nothing sloppy or rushed there.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by Zigurd on Sunday April 30, 2023 @08:43AM (#35762032)
X10 would be a generous assessment of when FSD will fully SD.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by spikels on Sunday April 30, 2023 @10:47PM (#35768585)
He predicted it would launch 4/20 and it launched 4/20. So current factor is 1x.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by sschueller on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:16AM (#35760928)
How do you water cool a steel plate under a rocket without the coolant instantly vaporizing and blowing up the plate?
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by krisoft on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:41AM (#35761044)
> instantly vaporizing and blowing up the plate

It sounds like you are thinking about the water coolant being in or behind the steel plate.

But if you pump water on top of the steel plate there it can instantly vaporize without blowing up anything. If you have sufficient flow then that can keep the steel plate from melting.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by lostlogin on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:34AM (#35761013)
They’ll need pumps bigger than the rocket’s fuel pumps.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by George83728 on Sunday April 30, 2023 @11:56AM (#35763781)
Nah, just some water towers. You can fill the water towers slowly using small pumps, then drain them quick using gravity.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by apendleton on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:44AM (#35761050)
In the Spaces thing, he described it as being like an upside-down shower head, and to expect lots of steam billowing out during launch instead of dust, so I don't think it's a closed system.
Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by TheSpiceIsLife on Sunday April 30, 2023 @06:22AM (#35761223)
NASA Kennedy launchpad deluged test https://youtu.be/LNkmwrTjKuo
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Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by TheSpiceIsLife on Monday May 01, 2023 @06:21PM (#35780037)
4.16 mega litres a minute.

Must be some fair old pumps on that setup!

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by mcbain on Sunday April 30, 2023 @05:23AM (#35760961)
The rule of thumb is that it takes 4 weeks for a concrete driveway to fully cure.

I admit I've never built a launchpad for the world's biggest rocket, but I'd wave my hands to say it might take a bit longer for that concrete, and it won't get poured immediately.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by krisoft on Sunday April 30, 2023 @06:04AM (#35761145)
> They will never launch within 8 weeks.

And the quotes don’t say that they will. In fact they imply that they won’t.

Re:SpaceX Rocket Struggled to Self-Destruct as It Spun Out o... by v0idzer0 on Monday May 01, 2023 @11:15AM (#35773970)
Who said they’d launch in 8 weeks? He only said the pad would be repaired in 8 weeks