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Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by DrOrangeGrove on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @12:47PM (#34793027)
The fact that people think we could easily shoot down alien craft is slightly concerning.

But the more concerning aspect for the US government is that foreign spies see UFO believers as easily exploitable marks. Thus the justification is counterintelligence people must sometimes lie to organize the security threats in an open network. This combined with an occasional Air Force psyop explains 99.99% of UFO sightings.

Sure there’s something *else* going on too, evident by the elasticity of true love, psychedelics and the general mystery of life’s existence. But for now, reality seems hard coded to prevent the explanation.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by mrtksn on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @01:27PM (#34793715)
> The fact that people think we could easily shoot down alien craft is slightly concerning.

What’s wrong with that? If there were Martians, they would not have problem destroying our craft we sent on Mars so far.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by uhtred on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @01:35PM (#34793866)
Think how simple minded that would make them seem though: "Ugg ugg me see me no understand me attack"

As much as I want ETs to exist, I really hope we wouldn't shoot them down if they were just observing.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by lovecg on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @02:00PM (#34794234)
If they’re so smart, they better figure out the complex geopolitical realities we have to deal with!
Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by morelinks on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @03:37PM (#34795586)
I imagine they’re resolve those realities the same way we do: “Start negotiating or prepare to lose thousands/millions”
Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by uhtred on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @02:05PM (#34794321)
It's hilarious that people down voted my comment- did I offend some Americans?
Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by infogulch on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @02:19PM (#34794508)
Aliens originating in the solar system is pretty unlikely at this point, so we can infer that any advanced alien activity will come from outside the solar system. Aliens that can visit from other solar systems are virtually guaranteed to have a beef technology advantage on us, given that we can scarcely even imagine traveling to other solar systems ourselves.
Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by sudden_dystopia on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @03:20PM (#34795393)
You are correct but there are other possibilities like aliens from other dimensions. That sounds like it would also require high technological ingenuity, but not necessarily. For example, maybe going from their dimension to our dimension is trivial compared to us trying go to their dimension. Perhaps when they trip on something like the dimensional equivalent of DMT they show up on our planet?

Or maybe it’s a simulation and aliens are simply users of the program.

Or it’s just more psychological warfare.

I have no idea what is going on and these are just random ideas, my point is simply that we have been seeing similar stuff for a long while now. We say it’s not us or china. If it’s not us or china, I don’t see it being another countries. If it’s private companies, what are they doing and why? Flying without transponders is highly illegal and unethical so maybe some sort of massive criminal organization that is highly technical and super secretive but that seems improbable. It’s not extraterrestrials exceeding the speed of light or extraterrestrials from the solar system because those are also improbable. So WTF is it then?

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by ianburrell on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @04:06PM (#34795994)
I think people make the assumption that aliens will be super advanced and super advanced means invincible. This comes from assuming that they will be advanced everywhere and that interstellar travel means magical tech. It ignores that there are physical limits to realistic travel or may be limits to magic ones. Finally, they can have blindspots like using cheap drones and assuming they can escape their attackers.

I was thinking of scenario where sailboat drone washes up on North Sentinel Island. Our civilization is much more advanced, they can't touch our airplanes or spacecraft. The drone is advanced, with solar panels, computers, and plastic, but is cheap and disposable. The islanders could row out in canoes and defeat it with stones and sticks.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by meremortals on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @01:39PM (#34793923)
> The fact that people think we could easily shoot down alien craft is slightly concerning.

https://www.eyeofmidas.com/scifi/Turtledove_RoadNotTaken.pdf

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by ars on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @02:45PM (#34794875)
That story has a sequel BTW. Not as good as the original though.
Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by msm_ on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @01:27PM (#34793719)
> The fact that people think we could easily shoot down alien craft is slightly concerning.

The same people are laughing at primitive tribes shooting arrows at planes flying above their island. Surely there's a huge technological gap between anything we have now, and alien spaceships capable of interstellar travel?

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by aflag on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @01:57PM (#34794184)
Except that are actually able to kill people who come too close. If they just orbit around from a distance I'm sure we wouldn't be able to take them down. Not so sure about it if they actually enter our atmosphere
Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by themodelplumber on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @01:59PM (#34794222)
> This combined with an occasional Air Force psyop explains 99.99% of UFO sightings.

Is this a measurement from a study you conducted?

Asking because it seems like a hand wave, and 99.999% of those kinds of hand waves fail to account for important details that don't fit the dismissal narrative...

And I mean that's five nines right there... :-)

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by moremetadata on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @02:32PM (#34794701)
>This combined with an occasional Air Force psyop explains 99.99% of UFO sightings.

Military or State psyops usually include drugs of sorts. For example, there are many sightings of Orange Orbs, these are flares being used on military training grounds which the public see and phone in or talk about on social media. Some of the Police are in on this.

UFO's and aliens are for those who dont believe in the religious psychological warfare programs using God.

Religions were invented about 6000 years ago, history tells you that shadowy people have been either using drugs typically hallucinogens or drugging people with hallucinogens in order to create something supernatural.

When watching ghost hunters or clairvoyants, with talking spirits from hundreds of years ago, what these people forget is how language has changed, some of todays vocabulary (words) simply did not exist a few hundred years ago, and yet people keep buying into it on places like Youtube and elsewhere.

Superstition & religion is a psychological coping mechanism for some and a way of psychologically harming people if someone claims to have a put a curse on someone. Some state employees play along with this, the medical profession give many people a religious or demonic like experience. Too many anti-histamines reportedly give people a hallucinogenic experience seeing a black shadow man, other types of hallucinogens give people psychedelic blocky Minecraft-like experiences, like Sativa giving people machine elf like visuals.

Humans and other animals biggest weakness from "hacking" by other humans is the use of drugs.

I think adrenaline can also cause hallucinations if the claims of people consuming large amounts of speed and tripping out is anything to go by, so its quite likely a fearful situation which spikes adrenaline is making people trip out.

Dimethyltryptamine is the main drug we make and release which gives us our dreams.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by bitxbitxbitcoin on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @03:02PM (#34795121)
Sativa just means cultivated.[0] I am still looking for the cultivar of cannabis sativa sativa that shows me machine elves.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oryza_sativa

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by moremetadata on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @03:07PM (#34795203)
Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by sudden_dystopia on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @02:58PM (#34795062)
While I generally agree, this is an assumption based on aliens being extraterrestrials which would require absurd technology to transverse vast distances, perhaps they are “aliens” from much closer. Also, perhaps they wanted us to shoot it down. We do seem to be stumbling into WW3 so maybe it’s just a sign of sorts that we need to look at the bigger picture. I’m just spitballing, but my point is we far too little info to be ruling anything out or attributing motives to hypothetical creatures.

It also didn’t seem like it was that easy as it took two missiles.

I have no answers, I have no real guesses, but I am not ruling anything out.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by 3pac on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @03:22PM (#34795418)
UFOs are as American as baseball and Elvis. Spies not from an open society might waste a lot of time on a want-to-believer who has watched The X-Files and is having a laugh.
Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by tzs on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @04:09PM (#34796031)
> The fact that people think we could easily shoot down alien craft is slightly concerning.

It's not obvious that aliens who reach Earth must be much more technologically advanced than we are. They could have come here in a generation ship, which probably only requires builders who are a little ahead of us, and that only in fields like bioengineering.

For most of what they'd need for a generation ship our current level of technology is fine. In particular there is no reason they would have to be better than us at aircraft or weapons technology, so whatever vehicles they bring along to use when they want to enter a planet's atmosphere might be no better than what our current air forces have.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by krapp on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @04:18PM (#34796137)
Except we should have noticed a generation ship. Particularly if we're assuming aliens not much more advanced than we are. It would be big and it would give off a lot of heat and it would have to be in orbit. I think you're underestimating the technological complexity of building what is essentially a sealed, self-sustaining biosphere capable of running for tens of thousands if not millions of years. Maybe on a napkin we're anywhere near able to do something like that.

Plus this goes against the common narrative that these craft display propulsion capabilities that appear to defy physics, which (if we're assuming aliens) implies anti-gravity at a minimum. No one is claiming to encounter UAPs or UFOs with wings and conventional rockets. Again, that's something we only kind of know how to do on a napkin, and even then only if we fudge the numbers.

At the very least, I would want to assume any civilization capable of interstellar travel to be at least 1000 years ahead of us, technologically. Even with generation ships and no space magic. It's just a big stupid round number but I intend it to mean generally as far ahead of us now, in terms of scientific knowledge and technological progress, and assuming a few paradigm shifts ahead, as we are ahead of the Middle Ages.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by wizeman on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @04:49PM (#34796618)
> At the very least, I would want to assume any civilization capable of interstellar travel to be at least 1000 years ahead of us, technologically.

My guess is that we'll be able to develop human-level artificial intelligence a lot sooner than 1000 years from now.

At which point it would be a lot easier to send AI probes to explore the galaxy and/or make first contact with another civilization than to build a generation ship.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by marcusverus on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @04:44PM (#34796556)
> It's not obvious that aliens who reach Earth must be much more technologically advanced than we are.

The odds of bumping into an alien civ that is anywhere near technological parity with us are vanishingly small. Given that the universe has been capable of hosting habitable planets for ~10 billion years, the median age of alien civilizations could easily be billions of years old. Meanwhile our civilization is a paltry .00001 billion years old.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by cyanydeez on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @06:49PM (#34797948)
The most likely outcome is that interstellar travel is impossible.
Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by tzs on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @08:33PM (#34798900)
On the other hand, the universe appears to be a dangerous place for life. It could be that almost all civilizations suffer an extinction event before they get technologically advanced enough to prevent it or survive it.

It could be that the only ones we'd actually bump into are those who built and launched generation ships not too long after they became capable of it, which would be when they are not too far ahead of where we are now.

Right now we just don't know enough to say what it is like out there. We do know that we sure haven't been able to detect any signs of alien civilizations. But we don't know if that is because very few civilizations start, or they start but something kills them before they start doing things we could detect, or they are only at a stage where they are doing such things for a relatively short time and then they switch to technology that we can't detect.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by marcusverus on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @09:05AM (#34803883)
> On the other hand, the universe appears to be a dangerous place for life.

The absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. We've only been "looking" for life for ~50 years!

> It could be that almost all civilizations suffer an extinction event before they get technologically advanced enough to prevent it or survive it.

It seems to me that we've got three possible scenarios here:

Scenario A: There is NOT a Great Filter. In this scenario, we have a large number of civs with a high median age. Scenario B: There IS a Great Filter. It catches between 0-99.99% of civs. In this scenario, we still have a large number of civs with a high median age. Scenario C: There IS a Great Filter. It catches 100% of civs. In this scenario, we have a small number of civs with a lower median age (some ${Civ Age at which Filter Occurs} / 2)

It's hard for me to imagine that we're living in Scenario C. For a Great Filter to catch 100% of civs, it would have to be baked into the laws of physics!

Even then, the Great Filter would have to occur VERY early in technological development for the odds of technological parity to be good. And, of course, an early-acting Great Filter means fewer extant civilizations at any point in time, lowering the odds of an encounter occurring in the first place.

Re:The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll ... by cyanydeez on Tuesday February 14, 2023 @06:48PM (#34797934)
It is obvious that interstellar travel is indistinguishable from magic.