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Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by dirtyid on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:12PM (#34757411)
>erred by sending such a large

I surmise you need large balloon to carry required instruments on one platform. Going forward IMO PRC just going to fly them higher, US can keep shooting them down... possible until they can't, both will reveal US capabilities. At minimum, finding out f22 + missile ceiling is worth the cost. PRC isn't going to stop program just because US domestic politics goes full retard, if anything, that's strategically exploitable especially if PRC can make current WH admin look weak by flying a balloon at height that can't be shot down. Medium/long term, PRC building/exposing CONUS vunerability is net benefitial for PRC posture - it's their version of, in DoD parlance, integrated deterence. IMO S analysis missing strategic calculus on PRC side.

Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by Vecr on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:26PM (#34757538)
I don't think they can send a balloon the US can't shoot down, but the problem with using ground or sea based interceptors, or longer range jet-launched missiles launched from below is identification and proper targeting. The US might not want to take the risk of hitting the wrong thing/a misidentified object.
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by dirtyid on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:34PM (#34757621)
Bug reason why PRC aviation / airspace is stressed is because PLA has priority intercepting US recon. If balloons cause comparable stress on commercial US aviation then problems with ID becomes part of the strategy. Exposing CONUS vunerability and fallout of domestic politics might be the point.
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by Ancapistani on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:17PM (#34757463)
Higher would be more expensive to shoot down, but given that we have missiles designed to shoot down satellites - at least in LEO - I don’t think it’ll be possible to use altitude as a means of evading response.
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by dirtyid on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:28PM (#34757566)
US switching platforms itself has information value. If it takes expensive ASAT tier platforms to take out balloons then saturation with higher ballons might be viable. Like if US has to start trading 5M USD SM6s to hit 110ft ballons, then 100K USD balloons might be economic way to trade sap US advanced missile inventory in future war.
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by georgeg23 on Saturday February 11, 2023 @07:03PM (#34757865)
These balloons could be an economical counter to the American Low Earth Orbit Military Constellation https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Development_Agency
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by jjtheblunt on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:24PM (#34757525)
You could just pop them with a laser instead of bothering to scramble jets and missiles, I’d think.
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by dirtyid on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:31PM (#34757593)
You could but confirming US has that capability is significant. The purpose is to gather intelligence after all.
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by jjtheblunt on Saturday February 11, 2023 @07:15PM (#34757940)
Considering the lunar ranging experiment of fifty years ago, it seems like it shouldn’t be some big surprise?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Laser_Ranging_experime...

Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by CameronNemo on Sunday February 12, 2023 @01:01PM (#34765061)
Not feasible to cover CONUS with network of ground based laser for forseeable future.

It is also not feasible to keep using million dollar missiles to shoot down thousand dollar balloons.

I kind of doubt that the planes are cheaper than ground based lasers. Even so, a mobile ground station could avoid giving away the US position and allow them to cover more area. Not sure how feasible that is.

Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by dirtyid on Sunday February 12, 2023 @04:14PM (#34767042)
Even if eventually technically feasible, imo it will take multi decades to acquire finish program and acqure platforms in sufficient numbers. Missiles feasible short term because there's airframes and stockpiles. It's a function of what's available. I think PRC can mass weaponize balloons to drope guided munitions much sooner than US can build up economic counter measures. Silly as meme is, balloon gap might eventually be real.
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by Overtonwindow on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:15PM (#34757446)
Serious question: was there ever any doubt that US military could shoot something down out of the sky no matter how high it flies? If they are doing this to determine capabilities, it's like staking at a grocery store to see if it sells milk.
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by dirtyid on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:23PM (#34757521)
Removing doubt has value. If US has to shift to another platform to hit 80k feet ballon reveals specific capabilities. Like if US has to start using advanced ground based interceptors, it will inform PRC on constraints relevant in IndoPac scenario. If US has to break out asat tier weapons, ASM135 cost 5B for ~15 missiles then PRC can start developing capabilities to accordingly to shift strategic math. Imagine if balloon threat forces US to reorient billions on homeland balloon defense, that's potentially billions not going elsewhere.

E:over post limit but Streak Eagle was high performances preproduction airframe specifially designed to hit 100k for a few minutes. Hard to say if current blocks can do the same or reliable prosecute mission at 100k, finding out is value itself.

Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by sokoloff on Saturday February 11, 2023 @06:34PM (#34757623)
US has flown F-15 (and F-104 for that matter) to over 100K feet MSL. China knows this already.
Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by mcphage on Saturday February 11, 2023 @07:02PM (#34757849)
Of course, if the US expects that the Chinese are using this to test our capabilities, then they could use that to undersell their capabilities.

And then the Chinese, knowing the US would use it to undersell capabilities…

Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by JohnBooty on Saturday February 11, 2023 @11:05PM (#34759601)
Yeah. I'm kind of flabbergasted by 99.9% of the comments on this topic, which assume the US is just chasing these things blindly without taking countermeasures.

The F-22 and other "stealth" jets can carry radar reflectors to intentionally make themselves EXTREMELY visible on radar.

https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/82798/how-does-...

Why would they carry such a thing? For one, it helps reduce the risk of accidents during training and other situations where they are flying in friendly skies. Two, helps prevent nosy enemies from learning about the true radar cross section of these planes.

It's hard to find concrete information on the USAF's practices here, for the obvious reasons.

The following is speculation, but: one imagines that the F-22/F-35/etc carry these as standard practice when not flying combat missions/patrols. One also imagines that they can be jettisoned midflight (like drop fuel tanks) in case e.g. a patrol turns into a spicy situation. That's a guess, I don't know if that's true.

Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by sundvor on Sunday February 12, 2023 @02:11AM (#34760630)
Tangential, but you may also want to fill the skies with noise when flying a stealth mission.

The rationale being that you may be able to hear a cat's claws on floorboards in the middle of the dead night, but you'd never hear it in the middle of a rave party. So pairing F-22s with eg F-15s becomes a valid strategy.

Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by cwillu on Sunday February 12, 2023 @09:09AM (#34762905)
> Tangential, but you may also want to fill the skies with noise when flying a stealth mission.

Obviously simplifying, but that's the essence of what ECM is.

Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by JohnBooty on Saturday February 11, 2023 @10:55PM (#34759549)
They could be observing specific things about the planes sent to intercept them, such as their heat signatures and radar cross sections.

But also, don't assume that the US was naive here. The USAF is pretty good at electronic warfare. It's very possible they were jamming the object's sensors in various ways.

Re:US aircraft shoots down new airborne object over Canada by golem14 on Saturday February 11, 2023 @07:40PM (#34758113)
I actually wonder why not burn holes in them by laser… maybe the US doesn’t want to show their capabilities, but that was the first thing that came to mind