The idea that maybe Microsoft or Apple or Google or FB doesn't have enough good engineers to code a best-in-class language model is absurd.
They all have orders of magnitude more data than OpenAI to build a better model, though.
Apple released an iPhone, cannibalising their iPod market.
Google built a great search engine long before they worked out how to monetise it properly. If they can’t get AI working in their products someone else will, and google will go the way of zune.
This is a terrible example. Everyone knew cell phones were a bigger market than mobile MP3 players, Apple was using this mobile expertise gained in iPod to move to a larger market. We don't know if ChatGPT will be a larger market than search currently is. Digital cameras (include sensors used in webcams and cellphones) are currently a smaller market than selling film was at peak. If ChatGPT will destroy Search volume, and if it will bring in 1/20th the revenue than it might be best for Google to delay adaptation as long as they can.
> If they can’t get AI working in their products someone else will
Google is using 'AI' in all their major products. It's possible that soon AI will make their most profitable products obsolete.
Yet Meta's 175billion parameter blenderbot is absolute garbage. Despite claiming stats like 'being twice as knowledgeable' or ' Compared with GPT3, on topical questions it is found to be more up-to-date 82 percent of the time and more specific 76 percent of the time'
Feel free to try yourself.
At lot happens in the space in 3 months. See where OpenAI was a year ago compared to today...
> "See where OpenAI was a year ago compared to today..."
3 months versus 12 months - a 9 month difference. OpenAI wasn't actually far from today 3 months ago.
The complexity is in making it cost efficient to run, making it intuitive to use, etc. That's a problem that google is more than capable of executing on. They'll need to reorganize to pull it off though. They'll even sprinkle ad results in.
What if answering machine business is just a few billion dollars business and completely removed the need of search? What if it is a kind of business that makes hundreds of billions but makes it through selling the product itself? This is fundamentally different from what Google offers.