After decades of doing nothing, somehow nothing has been done...

The only solution I can see is not a technological one, CO2 sinks is not reliable, too hypothetical, the solution is just low-conmsumption (my footprint is about 400kg CO2/year, no discomfort though), but we're too few to care trying it, sadly because it's actually beneficial on many levels

We shut down a large swath of the global economy for Covid, and emissions only went down 4.6%[0]. We then faced shortages that are in some areas still ongoing today, not to mention inflation.

I think if there's any technological hope of fixing the problem, damaging the supply chain through some sort of degrowth strategy will create a large obstacle to getting there. I also think that if you tried to do this in a democratic society, your party will be voted out in the next election. To me it doesn't seem like lower consumption is the solution given all of this.

[0] - https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/06/30/greenhouse-...

5% is actually huge with just partial lockdowns (car traffic was still allowed, there was just some time restrictions), and if the situation continued then life styles and the whole industry chain would have also adapted making this figure much larger

"shortages" are very relative, does it concern vital resources? (like water (not plastic bottle water but tap water), vegetables, rice, soap). Let alone the amount of waste is huge

This choice will sooner or later be forced, either from inflation, or government restrictions. We misunderestimate the massive crisis coming, it will be nowhere close Covid

Online shopping did not stop. Things were still produced at high rate.

All and any solutions (except living with it) fail because they lack a global enforcement mechanism. Individual and national action has been failing for this reason for decades. All of the "treaties" signed so far lack the same core element. The nice thing about a technological solution (really you need multiple solutions but assume they all arrive at the same time) would be that it would self organise (people will choose to move to fusion power IF it is cheaper than coal etc). But it's now too late for that too since even if the solutions came out tomorrow, any chance of implementing them globally before the 2040s is basically gone (no one will buy a tesla for 60k to save 5k a year in fuel costs, no one will spend 10bn on a fusion power plant when they already have a newish gas turbine plant with 30 years of life left in it).

The key now adaptation. But as was the case with the problem 30 years ago, it will take 30 years for people to take that seriously. It's not until people are already drowning that they will pay for a life-preserver and by then it's too late...

This coming August we probably won't need to use electricity to brew coffee.

You can just leave a pot of water out on the porch, let it warm to about 50C by 6PM , run that water through a percolator, and put it in the fridge for your iced coffee in the morning.

Archive link: https://archive.is/YPaQe

Or if you are just interested in the title chart, its author shared it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/105olnr/oc...

All those years I spent emitting CO2 finally paid off :)

Shorts all year long here in France, but mosquitoes all year long, 40°C+ longer summers, vegetation is hurt hard (above all deciduous plants)

I'm a bit anxious about the coming summer.

I've not been able to bring myself to have a closer look at the fruit trees around here (Nuremberg area), for fear of seeing some very doomed buds.

Would you rather have cold winters or hot summers?

Winter has almost been a total dud in western NY and much of the US.

How much of this is due to just:

(A.) randomness and chance

(B.) the fact that we're above 400 ppm carbon dioxide for almost every square meter of the globe

(C.) at perihelion

(D.) creeping up of thermal mass over the years and decades, eg oceans https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/ov...

> Winter has almost been a total dud in western NY

What about the blizzard that dropped 4 feet of snow on Buffalo at the end of December?

"Buffalo is significantly outpacing its typical seasonal snowfall. It has recorded over 100 inches so far this season, nearly 70 inches more than the normal amount for this time of year and several inches more than what it averages the entire season."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/buffalos-deadly-blizzard-numbers-m...

well, that was timed well for Christmas. While Buffalo got hammered twice by snow so far, it almost totally missed Rochester and portions in central NY.

Rochester still got a white Christmas which stuck around for a few days and definitely was a little prettier than the dreary snowless typical days in the region so far. The amount of shoveling required to date in Rochester: 0 hours. (Nothing accumulated above 2 inches.)

Texas and FL did get affected to record setting weather from that arctic blast. Hopefully most of the citrus trees survived.

Again, these short and extreme swings are often caused by a wavy jet stream that bring shifting North-South wind components to the weather while a the large scale vorticity passes by eastwards.

Wavy jet stream in turn is caused by a dying slowing jet stream. And this is also connected to global warming dynamics. While they do bring brief periods of more extreme cold, they do not help the average temperature stay low over the winter.

So look at the *averages*, not the brief extremes, and the pattern seems pretty clear.

In summary: just one cold brief arctic blast so, but no exceptional temperatures for most areas (afaik) in the NE.

As for Buffalo's luck, they may have be getting tons of Lake-effect snow from lake Erie.

Warmth thus far is uncommon but not outside my 40 years. Often, January 1st is a great day to ride a motorcycle.

It's not yet February. February is often a b*tch no matter early winter.

Revisit this come March.

We had snow at Mt Kosciusko (Australia) in mid December, in summer. Whiteout conditions at the summit, and cold enough snow was settling on the ground at Thredbo. (search for UTK 100k race photos to see!).

exactly the symptoms of climate change, average temperature rise and higher extremes

The existence of a temperature is evidence of climate change.

> Whiteout conditions

Man, you just gave me one of the most nostalgic feelings ever bringing me back to 1987:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GOOZ0dksRU

Had a nice late spring walk in a forest on January 1st. near Warsaw.

I am sold on global warming...

This is excellent news for the fight against Russia.

It is not, Russia for the most part is a landlocked country without unimpeded access to the high seas through warm water ports.

Russia stands to gain quite a bit from the Arctic routes opening up and Vladivostok becoming a warm water port open all year round, as well as from large swaths of their frozen tundra becoming ripe for exploitation.

Warm winter = less gas usage for heating = less money for Russia’s war. Putin won’t be in power by the time the Arctic opens up.

also more favorable weather for pickle jar babushkas to be outside, on balcony. So more protection from drones and cruise missiles.

From my egotistical point of view it was a great start of the year, I rode a bike, I walk, I sunbathed - so refreshing during those short winter days (and after a sleepless night).

Not sure if you are aware but Poland is one of the few countries that can benefit from moderate climate warming (https://www.espon.eu/climate-2012). In the base case scenario (winter without snow) we could save a lot of fuel and reduce the number of traffic accidents. The summers are a bit more tricky in the last decade they both got hotter and more humid (more rains). It's the south of the Europe that will get it hard.

You always feel weightless before hitting the ground. We are at the start of a process, and probably we will witness how things become worse in not so many years. And probably it will keep getting worse for the foreseeable future.

This event in particular may have been an outlier, but the trend goes in this direction, and there are some extremes events that we may not be able to get through safely.

Atlantis disappeared overnight

Forest and fossils under Antarctica

Forest under the Sahara

Poles can flip overnight

Civilizations disappeared overnight

We are just not prepared for the unknown