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Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by lupire on Thursday November 17, 2022 @11:54AM (#33641747)
Good government is a luxury many lack.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by cooljacob204 on Thursday November 17, 2022 @11:56AM (#33641776)
And that's a fair point. But the problem is Crypto is an investment playground by people from rich countries and legitimate uses of it in countries like say Venezuela is an extremely small part of total transactions.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by pera on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:39PM (#33642577)
I'm from Argentina but live in the UK: in 2020 my mom needed an urgent oncological treatment and the only method I had to transfer the money was using a cryptocurrency. I really don't like to talk about this stuff but when people here in HN keep making arguments like "oh who needs this stuff, I can send money to my friends with the Monzo app" it really makes me feel like my problems as someone from the third world don't matter at all
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by runarberg on Thursday November 17, 2022 @01:05PM (#33643004)
I think most people here agree that it is unnecessarily hard and expensive to transfer money between countries. However cryptocurrency is a technological solution to a regulatory problem. This issue could be solved tomorrow by legislation if governments would cooperate and work to do so. All the efforts pushing cryptocurrency for this particular niche would be better served pushing for international standards for cheap and simple instant money transfers.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by ls15 on Thursday November 17, 2022 @01:29PM (#33643363)
> All the efforts pushing cryptocurrency for this particular niche would be better served pushing for international standards for cheap and simple instant money transfers.

That seems impossible given today's geopolitics. Crypto remittance at least works.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by runarberg on Thursday November 17, 2022 @01:42PM (#33643554)
Maybe that is true of transferring money between USA and Russia, or between USA and the EU, or the USA and any other country outside of Canada and Mexico, but there is no reason that the UK and Argentina don’t have a bilateral agreement in place that would make transferring money between the two countries quick, cheap, and easy.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by Sargos on Thursday November 17, 2022 @02:10PM (#33644024)
>there is no reason that the UK and Argentina don’t have a bilateral agreement in place that would make transferring money between the two countries quick, cheap, and easy.

This may be true but the fact is there is no such agreement and therefore the friction remains. Crypto at least provides a universal low friction option to everyone with no need for disinterested political groups to spend precious time to take action.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by quickthrowman on Thursday November 17, 2022 @02:13PM (#33644066)
The UK and Argentina don’t have the greatest foreign relations, the UK defeated a murderous Argentine dictator in the Falklands War and then the dictator was removed from power.

Argentina thinks that was bad for some reason.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by vaxintar on Thursday November 17, 2022 @02:13PM (#33644063)
>This issue could be solved tomorrow by legislation if governments would cooperate and work to do so.

Again, many countries around the globe don't have a functional government capable of produce such legislation _tomorrow_.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by runarberg on Thursday November 17, 2022 @05:03PM (#33646498)
GP was talking about Argentina and the UK. Both have pretty functioning governments, and pretty stable relation. This could easily be solved for most people today. Even China and India have stable governments that pass legislation and adopt international standards. You will only find exceptions in places like the USA, Iran and Russia. However most people don’t live there.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by pera on Thursday November 17, 2022 @06:54PM (#33647749)
I'm quite tired for a proper response right now but I wanted to point out that this has nothing to do with UK-Argentina bilateral relations: Argentina's economy has a very complex history, specially during the past 20 years, and things that you give for granted like transferring money internationally with your bank or having a savings account are simply not an option.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by danaris on Thursday November 17, 2022 @08:25PM (#33648584)
And, just as importantly, once the regulation in the companies catches up, cryptocurrency will be subject to it, too.

It will either become just as slow as the accursèd centralized fiat currencies, or it will be outright banned.

Any regulatory hurdles that cryptocurrency allows you to avoid for now, it won't for long. It is not, and cannot be, a long-term solution.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by devoutsalsa on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:00PM (#33641872)
The US dollar is used for shady stuff all over the world, but we’re not trying to ban it.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by danans on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:07PM (#33642020)
> The US dollar is used for shady stuff all over the world, but we’re not trying to ban it.

That is because it is overwhelmingly used for standard non-shady stuff, like trading legal goods and services. Crypto can't make a similar claim.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by throwup on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:13PM (#33642123)
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3942181

> For example, illegal transactions, scams and gambling together make up less than 3% of volume.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by danans on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:32PM (#33642438)
You excluded the first part of that paragraph:

> We show that the vast majority of Bitcoin transactions between real entities are for trading and speculative purposes. Starting from 2015, 75% of the real bitcoin volume has been linked to exchanges or exchange-like entities such as on-line wallets, OTC desks, and large institutional traders.

So 75% of the transactions are just speculative trading, not transactions for goods or services, which is what is being discussed. Taking the paper's numbers at face value, as a percentage of non-speculative transactions, illicit transactions are 12%, which is quite high.

There are also papers which quantify the amount of illegal activity as high as 46% [1] in 2018.

Illicit activity is still probably the most durable use non-investment use-case for Bitcoin, and realistically will be the most enduring use case going forward.

1. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3102645

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by rsj_hn on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:48PM (#33642731)
In some sense, yes the ultimate purpose of a bearer currency in the era of government controlled custodial currencies is having a currency that the government can't seize from you or put prior restraint on you spending. Thus by definition, the main use case is "illicit".

But remember that "illicit" also includes sending donations to protestors in Canada when the government froze their bank accounts, or sending payments to dissident organizations that have been blacklisted and denied banking services, etc.

We can also say that the primary use case of signal is "illicit" communication -- that is, attempts to skirt eavesdropping by various government security organizations, and this is why Signal received funding from the U.S. government - it was a device to assist in coordinating anti-government protests in nations the US wanted to oppose. For the same reason, the U.S. Navy created and funded Tor.

So this is a two way street -- the ability to send payments and securely communicate even if your government doesn't want you to do that is great when they are used to support dissidents in nations you oppose, but not so great when they are used for similar purposes at home, or when they are used for organized crime. Just because a technology's primary use case is "Illicit" doesn't mean it's not a valuable or useful technology.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by throwup on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:51PM (#33642773)
Illegal transactions are also 11-12% of the USA's economy.[1]

In 2019, forex volume was $6.6T per day [2], or $1716T per year. Meanwhile global GDP was only $87.5T [3]. In other words, almost 95% of global currency volume is speculation. Why would anyone use currencies that are mainly used for speculation?

Both the traditional and crypto economies are reflections of human behavior, but because crypto is more transparent, you can see it for yourself. And a lot of people don't like what they see. But it's not a new problem nor unique to new currencies or technologies.

[1]: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/032916/how-big...

[2]: https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/executio...

[3]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/268750/global-gross-dome...

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by KptMarchewa on Thursday November 17, 2022 @01:42PM (#33643559)
> Illegal transactions are also 11-12% of the USA's economy.[1]

Much of that figure are payments for untaxed, but otherwise legal activities. On the other hand, crypto figures are straight up payments for illegal activities.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by danans on Thursday November 17, 2022 @01:18PM (#33643189)
> In other words, almost 95% of global currency volume is speculation. Why would anyone use currencies that are mainly used for speculation?

Much of that trading volume, speculative or not supports the international trade of real goods and services and hedges currency risk for large international companies [1]. The same cannot be said of Bitcoin, which does provide the same utility.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-...

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by imtringued on Friday November 18, 2022 @02:54AM (#33651683)
Not really, the speculation has nothing to do with human behaviour. The conventional money system and the thousands of cryptocurrencies that copy it are inherently speculative and reward people for being indecisive aka being liquid. Liquidity is the ability to instantly change your mind and that ability has very little to do with human nature and more to do with the nature of your money.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by psychlops on Thursday November 17, 2022 @01:00PM (#33642933)
Seems like you will get your wish as the trend is leading towards a future where only approved transactions will be allowed.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by sokoloff on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:20PM (#33642248)
What constitutes a "scam" in the that paper? That paper treats all USDT (Tether) transactions as "not scam".

I think that remains to be proven and I don't think it's anywhere near certain.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by hellotomyrars on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:35PM (#33642486)
Tether is arguably itself a scam based on their incredibly creative account and likely outright lies about the backing of Tether.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by aww_dang on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:42PM (#33642631)
Turtles all the way down. The US central bank backs the US dollar with "The full faith and credit of the US government"

https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12770.htm

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by hellotomyrars on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:48PM (#33642736)
Sure, totally. But I trust the faith and credit of the US government a lot more than the faith and credit of Tether.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by aww_dang on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:52PM (#33642786)
Use of the US dollar is compulsory. Thankfully, cryptocurrencies cannot make the same claim.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by TacticalCoder on Thursday November 17, 2022 @02:18PM (#33644138)
3% to 5% of the world's GDP is linked to criminal activities [1]. Cryptocurrencies are a drop in the bucket here. It doesn't even register.

[1] And it's highly likely the CIA is still, in 2022, deeply tied in drug trafficking and drug money laundering.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by cooljacob204 on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:07PM (#33642010)
Yes but it's used by far for more legitimate stuff. I would argue crypto outside of investing is not.

Also I don't want to ban crypto. I want to crack down on these exchanges which encouraged everyone to gamble on crypto and lost a ton of people money.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by aww_dang on Thursday November 17, 2022 @01:26PM (#33643317)
The market is cracking down on these exchanges by bankrupting them. I'd prefer a privately run auditing and voluntary accreditation model.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by onion2k on Thursday November 17, 2022 @11:59AM (#33641862)
Is there any crossover in a Venn diagram of "government is so bad you need crypto" and "government is good enough that they won't shut off the internet to control the people"? If there isn't then crypto isn't very useful in those places.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by notpushkin on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:15PM (#33642148)
It is hard to shut off the Internet (or at least should be, if it is properly decentralized).

Point in case: Russia. Government has been trying to block everything they don't like for some ten years now I think. Controlling all the uplinks from the country is just not feasible (although they're working on buying everything out I believe), so it was in fact easier for them to make all the ISPs install some blocking equipment themselves, which works pretty poorly.

Many times they were successful, but they couldn't shut Telegram down for example. When TLS ECH is finally adopted it's basically game over for them.

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by miohtama on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:37PM (#33642536)
If you shut down Internet, your economy suffers.

Even China cannot block Github, because it would harm their economy too much. Chinese developers need to access Github (PyPi, NPM), or they are not productive. The global software industry is built on the top of Western science that relies of on freedom of information. Thus, they need to let free information to flow against the authorianship will.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_GitHub#China

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by notpushkin on Thursday November 17, 2022 @03:16PM (#33644992)
That's interesting! I thought China developers had npm / PyPI etc. mirrored so that they don't have to deal with the slowed worldwide versions.

UPD: that said, I agree that the Chinese Firewall is about as far as you can shut off the Internet in a modern country (at least without turning into another North Korea).

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by philippejara on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:20PM (#33642255)
Most governments that are so bad you need crypto are not that bad because of repression necessarily, but because of corruption or incompetence. Corruption or incompetence doesn't care enought to "shut down the internet" and if they do odds are a bad job will be done of it.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by cypress66 on Thursday November 17, 2022 @02:22PM (#33644191)
Yes. Argentina is an example.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by 7speter on Thursday November 17, 2022 @12:06PM (#33641999)
Yet some people still want to drown their pretty good government in a tub.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by TremendousJudge on Thursday November 17, 2022 @11:57AM (#33641810)
Agree. For example, people who save in bitcoin or ether. They don't have any influence into how the system is managed.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by biohax2015 on Thursday November 17, 2022 @11:55AM (#33641769)
USD is available to anyone
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by djbebs on Thursday November 17, 2022 @11:58AM (#33641834)
Im sure the russians that just saw hundreds of billions of usd frozen would disagree.
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by TremendousJudge on Thursday November 17, 2022 @11:58AM (#33641828)
Ask any Argentinian
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by A4ET8a8uTh0 on Thursday November 17, 2022 @11:58AM (#33641827)
What exactly do you mean by that, because if you do mean American dollar, I can point out multiple parties who simply cannot use US currency? Hell, I can point out to transactions that are prohibited if they even touch some type of activity and are in US dollars.

In other words, could you elaborate?

Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by whitepoplar on Thursday November 17, 2022 @11:57AM (#33641808)
Nope
Re:Is This the End of Crypto? by mxschumacher on Thursday November 17, 2022 @06:13PM (#33647316)
and competition is healthy anyway, even for governments. That transfers of money in the US are relatively slow and relatively expensive is a technical issue for the FED to resolve; already a solved problem in the Eurozone.