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Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by hn_throwaway_99 on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:21PM (#33180896)
> It's absolutely incredible to watch these formerly phenomenally innovative companies falter at that very core competency of staying cutting edge but we see it happen over and over again.

To be frank, I think that's a great thing. I don't want companies to stay giant in perpetuity, I think it's great that they are essentially "recycled" when new, better companies come along and eat their lunch.

If anything I think it's quite bad that over the past 25ish years that a lot of big companies have really learned the lessons of "disruption" and have responded by just buying up the smaller but up-and-coming competition before they can overtake (looking at you Adobe and Figma).

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by srinivgp on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:27PM (#33181001)
IF a company goes bad, it's great that new companies eat their lunch.

It's bad for a company to go bad.

It's bad for a company to lock out competition.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by BobbyJo on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:49PM (#33181308)
> It's bad for a company to go bad.

Hard disagree, so I wonder what your basis for this bullet is.

Agree on the other two though.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by NikolaNovak on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @03:08PM (#33181575)
Not the op, but:

1. Tautological: from company's perspective, it's bad for the company (itself) to go bad.

2. More broadly, it's reasonably self-evident that it's bad for employees, and bad for shareholders of a company, for that company to go bad

3. Where we can have discussions, and probably for a long and fun if not necessarily fruitful time, is whether it's "good" or "bad" from market's, or consumer's perspective for companies to go bad. I personally think not.

I think we'll likely mostly agree that it's good for market to filter out and punish bad companies or companies that go bad, once they go bad, for whatever reason; but that doesn't necessarily imply or follow that's it's good for companies to go bad.

In other words, what's your perspective/bias - why would it be GOOD for a company to go bad? Why would it not be absolutely fantastically wonderful if all companies perpetually stayed good and we lived in utopia of rainbows and unicorns? :>

(all this without defining what "company going bad" means, left as an exercise for the student :)

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by BobbyJo on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @05:11PM (#33183303)
> Where we can have discussions, and probably for a long and fun if not necessarily fruitful time, is whether it's "good" or "bad" from market's, or consumer's perspective for companies to go bad. I personally think not.

Generally where my head was at. The other two points were better scoped. I personally think it's good that companies go bad, as it moves control over productive assets from one group to another. This is good for society for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is enabling new ideas to be tried. Can a long lived company try new ideas? sure, but the degree to which they avoid risks (if they live a long time they necessarily avoid undo risk) puts on upper bound on how ambitious they are with new things.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by srinivgp on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @05:03PM (#33183143)
Things going bad is bad. Dying is bad. Etc etc.

Sometimes on net things are good because of other effects like "ah, promising new competitor gets a chance to shine!" but if you could have _both_, you absolutely _would_. A company going bad is a _cost paid_ for new blood, not an _added benefit_.

It's not good that you have 100 fewer hours when you spend 100 hours creating something awesome. It's bad that you have 100 fewer hours. If you could create the same awesome thing and still have those 100 hours to do something else, that'd be fantastic.

All other things being equal, I would far rather Intel be awesome than not. If it turns out the world is such that all other things can't be equal, it might be worth having Intel not be awesome in favor of other benefits, but I'm never going to be _happy_ about Intel not being awesome.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by UncleOxidant on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @05:38PM (#33183794)
I can think of another aspect of the badness: It's bad for geographical regions that have become dependent on the company. Intel is Oregon's largest private employer, for example, and most of this employment is in the Portland metro area. If Intel were to go away next year this area would be hit very hard economically. That's not going to happen, of course, but one can imagine a long slow decline. Tektronix used to be a very large employer here - employed about as many at it's peak in the late 80s as Intel employs here now. Tek went into decline in the 90s, fortunately Intel's star was rising then. As Intel's star declines it's tough to see a new replacement for the area.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by throwaway821909 on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @06:45PM (#33184722)
It's an example of the general problem, it would be better if Intel (and some "competitors" to keep prices low) could always perfectly adapt to new technologies etc, and retrain people.

When they can't it's good companies come and go, or Kodak would still be blocking digital cameras (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kodak-bankruptcy-idUSTRE8...) but the price we pay is things like wasted effort on re-implementing everything that didn't need to change at the new place, good people can't always move to it as you mention, etc.

Different countries at different times adopt different positions on the scale between inefficient (?) state-linked monopolies with jobs for life and letting the market do its thing. I'm not sure what factor means that sometimes we end up with Samsung and other times British Leyland.

That itself is an example of capitalism as the least worst option... similarly how much effort goes into trading currencies or commodities or whatever just so people get a fair price and aren't screwed over by whoever is the only person selling at the moment they need something. But we're self-interested, biased, and this is the workaround (or the system that emerges from our nature - self-interest is turned into the energy behind it all and "greed is good").

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by jason-phillips on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:34PM (#33181100)
> I think that's a great thing. I don't want companies to stay giant in perpetuity...

Except that semiconductors are a national security issue at the moment.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by beebmam on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:39PM (#33181173)
100%. It's worth considering that some of these people laid off may consider working for authoritarian governments if they were well compensated (or are ideologically aligned), and that's a huge national security risk too. Hope they aren't dumb enough to lay off engineers with important knowledge. Please tell me that US representatives have already met with Intel on this.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by xwolfi on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:54PM (#33181375)
I work in an authoritarian country (Hong Kong) and it s not what you think. You cant transplant a well paid foreigner expecting a breakthrough: his entire team will spend their time enforcing the red tape to teach him to adapt and by the time the money dries out they ll either have an obedient clone of the rest or a frustrated quitter.

Plus, dictatorships arent against the US per se, they re against the US convincing the populace they too could act like americans, and are extremely dependent on that Schrodinger state where you re both the factory for the US and a public political opponent. Symbiotic parasite pretending to be the host's alternative.

Plus the US might change heads at the top, but it s hardly a safe ally to have. Ukraine nearly went to complete disaster thanks to Trump and having morons elected there is a security risk for many too...

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by collegeburner on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @04:04PM (#33182299)
we have temporarily made peace with dictatorships before. the bigger concern is china wants the #1 spot in world power and we will oppose any nation that tries to beconme more powerful than us.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by twelve40 on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:42PM (#33181200)
yeah but it's not a good reason to prop up or keep bloating non-competitive corporations. Bloating Intel is not likely to result in another tsmc.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by zhengyi13 on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:39PM (#33181176)
Eh, I think they always were; we're just finally being forced to pay them better attention.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by indymike on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:38PM (#33181156)
> Except that semiconductors are a national security issue at the moment.

Maybe too big is a national security issue, too.

Too big to fail is a real problem for any part of our economy.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by icapybara on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:45PM (#33181244)
Computer chips are a product that is only possible to produce at the largest scales. Everything, from the supply chain to design to manufacturing, is a globalized effort. You’ll never have small mom and pop fabs.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by wongarsu on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @03:00PM (#33181471)
If everyone realizes it's a national security issue, that might change. Sure, US, EU and China have players in the industry and can attract fabs with a bit of incentive, but what if Russia or India or Pakistan or Brazil or Iran want to ensure a steady supply even under sanctions? Some of them might open up smaller fabs that might not be economically viable but are of strategic importance.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by selimthegrim on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @11:44PM (#33186952)
Doesn’t Malaysia have fabs? Singapore?
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by bluGill on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @03:04PM (#33181526)
You could fab chips in your basement. However your costs per chip would be in the tens of thousands each for basic chips. Large scales allows making those same chips for less than a dime each.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by icapybara on Thursday October 13, 2022 @10:32AM (#33191515)
You'd still need chemicals, a pure substrate, a chip design that's been converted into a manufacturing process, a UV aligner, spin coater, etc... can't do everything in your basement. You have to trade with others.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by indymike on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @03:09PM (#33181599)
> Computer chips are a product that is only possible to produce at the largest scales

Perhaps, or perhaps we're dealing with monopolization.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by feanaro on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:44PM (#33181228)
Luckily there are many, many countries in the world with no semiconductor industry of their own who benefit from no single company or country staying as the perpetual, unchallenged giant.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by hn_throwaway_99 on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @04:50PM (#33182918)
> Except that semiconductors are a national security issue at the moment.

Perhaps this is too much of a radical idea, but if a company is so critically important that it can't be allowed to falter without government support, then it should be nationalized.

At the very least the government support should be made explicit, and large, critically important companies should be forced to pay much higher insurance, i.e. the equivalent of what banks need to pay for FDIC insurance. Sick of the whole "privatize the profits and socialize the losses" mindset.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by jrockway on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:28PM (#33181015)
> I think it's great that they are essentially "recycled" when new, better companies come along and eat their lunch.

Don't you have on the order of tens of thousands of dollars invested in Intel through retirement savings, though? When S&P 500 companies fail, your retirement savings become worthless. (Apple is really the one you want to watch out for, though!)

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by ISL on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:36PM (#33181140)
If you're invested broadly in the S&P, so long as companies are "properly" valued, it is okay if INTC falls and AMD rises.

If a major player is massively overvalued, though, then index funds, too, will feel some pain as the exuberance in a major player dissipates.

I hold some INTC directly after having been extremely impressed with the company's dedication to rigorous process in engineering interviews in the mid-2010s. I'm sad to see such a great company go through hard times.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by longtimelistnr on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:34PM (#33181111)
Isnt this only a concern if you plan to retire in the next 5 ish years? Even 5 years seems a while to correct itself unless there’s a larger market implosion. The last 5 years has seen the tail end of a recession and a pandemic
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by pantulis on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:33PM (#33181092)
Not a US citizen, but aren't the retirement funds managed by someone who should be held responsible for not diversifying?
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by katmannthree on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:37PM (#33181147)
Whether or not they're ``held responsible'' to the degree anyone in such a position in the US is (i.e. lolno), grocery stores and retirement homes do not accept epicaricacy as payment.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by jrockway on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:51PM (#33181326)
Retirement funds do pretty OK here. Early in your career you'll mostly hold something like an S&P 500 index fund or a total stock market fund, as you get closer to retirement they shift the allocation towards safer investments.

I don't love this; the total stock market is a lot of tech companies, and I already have plenty of exposure to tech by working in the field. It's a good heuristic for most people, though. (And no, I don't do anything about this underlying fear of tech sector exposure. I just buy the Target Date 20XX funds like everyone else.)

My only point is that the grandparent comment generally expects companies to die when they get into the S&P 500. If that's true, we're all screwed. If one S&P 500 is just stealing business from some other S&P 500 company, though, it's probably a net gain. But if it's some privately owned startup, then it's not as concrete a win, and let's be honest, startups are driving a lot of the innovation in tech.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by JamesianP on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @03:15PM (#33181668)
Which retirement funds are doing ok this time around? They typically switch to bonds which thanks to inflation are down something like 20 percent in the last year (some more like 30), despite yielding far less than stocks in the best of times.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by jrockway on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @07:32PM (#33185177)
It's the right strategy in general, not a strategy guaranteed to never lose money. Your savings account is down 20% year over year in terms of purchasing power because what $1 is changed dramatically. Rare event, and sometimes you're just screwed.

If I had a time machine, I would definitely use it to time the market!

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by JamesianP on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @10:34PM (#33186471)
People who are retired, and have absolutely no way to bounce back if the market is unkind, should absolutely invest in places that never lose money. I'm not talking about inflation. I can go out and buy actual guaranteed bonds that pay me an actual guaranteed positive interest rate. Yeah they don't keep up with inflation, but it only a small trickle in lost earning power at that point, not a loss of 1/5 of the number of years I can stay retired which the funds are delivering.

My savings account is not what I'm talking about. Inflation or not, it is still a number I can describe as "positive".

I'm referring to bonds that retirement and wealth management add to funds use to supposedly counter volatility. These are investments that at best will only pay single digits. They have suffered the worst year since 1931 or something. And we're just getting going. The frustrating part is as I said, the underlying bonds themselves still pay that 4% or so which would be much better than the funds are achieving. But for some reason they have to sell the bonds at a loss.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by JamesianP on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:56PM (#33181414)
Nope! They're rewarded for getting slightly higher returns than other funds during the bull market times, despite the disproportionate increase in risk they take on to do it. Everyone is looking at recent trends and almost no one looks tat fundamentals. It's a moral hazard.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by fsckboy on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @03:24PM (#33181768)
> the retirement funds managed by someone who should be held responsible for not diversifying?

fund managers don't have "personal" or "corporate" assets that are anywhere near the scale of the (retirement) funds they manage; being held responsible for mismanagement would not lead to a source of capital to replace that which had been lost through mismanagement.

All investment has risk.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by anotherman554 on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @06:48PM (#33184756)
In the US usually the employee usually has a choice of several funds in their 401 (k) retirement account, including international funds.

It seems the person upthread owns a target date fund and this means they probably are diversified. Their post doesn't make a lick of sense.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by JamesianP on Thursday October 13, 2022 @02:29PM (#33194672)
If this is referring to me, then perhaps you're confused because I was responding to a question about rewards and punishments not whether labels fit. And I never claimed the the question and my response were somehow opposite ends of a dichotomy. Indeed the connection there is the problem. A fund can be completely diverse and still high-risk.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by anotherman554 on Thursday October 13, 2022 @03:05PM (#33195103)
I was not referring to you. I was referring to the person who wrote this over the top, inaccurate comment:

"When S&P 500 companies fail, your retirement savings become worthless. (Apple is really the one you want to watch out for, though!)"

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by twelve40 on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:46PM (#33181258)
intel doesn't have to go up in flames, not sure why you view it as all or nothing. They can keep milking legacy stuff and even make money like IBM (what paul graham calls irrelevant), while someone else can keep inventing better chips.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by nemothekid on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:52PM (#33181340)
>Don't you have on the order of tens of thousands of dollars invested in Intel through retirement savings, though?

Why is my fund in Intel but not in Apple? The whole point of choosing the index is so that you are diversified. You would only lose if Intel lost out to a foreign company, otherwise the demise of Intel is made palatable by the rise of Apple and AMD.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by bluGill on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @03:05PM (#33181536)
Even if intel loses to a foreign company, odds are that foreign company has been invested in my a domestic company I own so I'm still okay.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by vineyardmike on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @02:57PM (#33181421)
Over time, those funds are re-weighted. Unless you bought inte directly, the rewighting should handle it. Unless it fails quickly and spectacularly
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by kgwgk on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @03:47PM (#33182052)
S&P 500 trackers are not re-weighted.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by vineyardmike on Thursday October 13, 2022 @03:13PM (#33195211)
Standard and Poors periodically updates the S&P 500 with the 500 largest companies. Intel will one day likely be removed, just like one day apple will be. It may be a while but it’ll happen.

Companies come and go from it all the time:

https://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/innosight-sp-500-new-compan...

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by kgwgk on Thursday October 13, 2022 @03:33PM (#33195484)
In the context of your comment

"Unless you bought inte directly, the rewighting should handle it. Unless it fails quickly and spectacularly"

I would find little comfort in the fact that if Intel goes down 85% -slowly but somewhat spectacularly- from its current level it will eventually be excluded from the index.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by vineyardmike on Tuesday October 18, 2022 @03:18AM (#33244031)
Cisco used to have a massive market cap. Greatest in the country. Now it’s absolutely unremarkable compared to FAANG et al. It went from $80 to $12.

The fact that I had to google for the details of its fall gives me comfort that when intels time comes it won’t cause harm on its slow exit.

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by kgwgk on Wednesday October 19, 2022 @04:33AM (#33259253)
The only harm done is the money lost on that particular investment, of course.
Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by MichaelBurge on Wednesday October 12, 2022 @03:35PM (#33181929)
There's no guarantee semiconductor fabs will be recycled. If TSMC shuts down due to political turmoil, Intel decides to halt all R&D and milk their new monopoly, then hardware progress could simply stall with no new competitor rising.

An investor would need to front many billions of dollars for an uncertain payoff over a decade or two, and Intel could at any moment become competent again. And if no investor is willing to take that risk, there would be no new competitor.

Adobe and Figma are software companies, so don't require capital investment. So if one shuts down, it's relatively easy to make a new UI modeling tool(or for an existing one to take over their customers).

Re:Intel will lay off 20'000 employees by eecc on Friday October 14, 2022 @02:55PM (#33207442)
That's all very nice and yeah, we've all read the essay about "creative destruction" but what happens to the Intellectual Capital that gets annihilated, sold pennies on the dollar and left to whither in useless portfolio trusts.

It's a disastrous process, I passionately hate it