If he was caught in a FIDE event then of course a ban should be permanent, much like athletics.
My guess? Over 30%
I don’t think chess is as bad as cycling. Doesn’t excuse bad behavior, but gives some perspective
I agree with other comments here who suggested zero tolerance policy. Cheat once and get banned for life. I remember as a kid, watching hours of cricket. Then I found out some of my heroes were fixing matches. I stopped watching that day. No fan wants to see cheats and match fixers and other bad characters. That is what politics is for!
These seem like fair qualifications to your proposition.
As for codification, criminal leniency for juveniles, which is widespread, gets you pretty close.
For chess to have its own codifications, I think, as Magnus clearly does too, that they need to generally up their game across the board. All the way from detection, investigation, protocols/procedures around suspicions, accusations and hearings/tribunals … and then the penalties can be codified.
I don’t know what’s in place now and what its history is, but Magnus is either chucking a massive rage-quit for losing or telling the chess world they need to get serious and catch up quick vc (or why not both I suppose).
For NM and above, one time caught should get you banned for life
Protecting the game is far far far more important than protecting the individuals
For NM and below, I guess one warning would be ok. But nothing more than that.
I know this isn’t proof he cheated, but it doesn’t do him any favors when he’s already under suspicion.
Edit: Way back, decades ago, in Warcraft 2, I became strong enough to regularly get accused of cheating by people who weren’t familiar with me. However the converse side of this is I was extremely accurate at detecting actual cheating.
I do not want to suggest anything here, just side note that there are cases in cycling when someone was cheating and than suspended/relegated but without life ban like Alberto Contador in Tour de France 2010.
Niemann doesn't have to approve such a thing. It falls on the accuser to prove that the accused is guilty.
If you get caught cheating, even once, you should be banned for life.
Otherwise we end up in a lose-lose situation.
It’s almost impossible for Magnus to prove Niemann cheated on that game.
It’s impossible for Niemann to prove he didn’t cheat.
But shouldn’t matter. He was caught cheating before, he shouldn’t have been allowed to compete again.
I don’t remember Ben Johnson or Lance Armstrong getting a pass
Edit: Replies seem to focus on my examples. Forget about them. Proposition stands. If you are old enough to compete you are old enough to be banned for life if you cheat. Online or OTB.