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Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by sandworm101 on Sunday September 04, 2022 @10:04PM (#32719724)
More inconvenient facts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Fort_McMurray_wildfire

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E_OLgC4nV0

88,000 people in perhaps 50,000 vehicles all taking the ONE road out of town. Some kind companies setup fuel trucks by the roadside to top up tanks. Gas delivery can be scaled up and even made portable in an emergency. Had those 50,000 vehicles all been EVs, tens of thousands of people would have been stuck beside the road hoping the fire picked a different direction.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by reaperducer on Monday September 05, 2022 @12:13AM (#32720424)
88,000 people in perhaps 50,000 vehicles all taking the ONE road out of town.

That's an interesting point.

We see this a couple of times a year in the United States — tens, or even hundreds of thousands of people evacuating because of an approaching hurricane.

It takes hours and hours and hours to go not very far. And when you finally get someplace with an open hotel room, it's hundreds of miles away.

Although I believe they are close, I'm not sure EVs are ready for that challenge yet. Especially since a gas station half-way to safety can fill up hundreds of cars faster than a dozen EVs can charge.

Can more chargers solve this problem? Better chargers? Both? Something else?

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by ben_w on Monday September 05, 2022 @08:13AM (#32723405)
> Especially since a gas station half-way to safety can fill up hundreds of cars faster than a dozen EVs can charge.

Logistics. A petrol station can fill up any single isolated car or truck really fast, but when the local supply is gone, it can only be returned via a delivery truck (unless I'm very wrong and they have pipes direct to refineries?)

An electric charger can recharge one car battery much slower than a tank can be refilled, but the grid can be approximated as "not running out" over that kind of timescale.

I'm not sure which would be better for mass evacuations in practice, especially given traffic jams are where EVs excel.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by NegativeLatency on Monday September 05, 2022 @12:38AM (#32720579)
Even cars are barely up to the challenge in that case.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by yurishimo on Monday September 05, 2022 @12:21AM (#32720463)
At a minimum we need some sort of fast charger that can add 50+ miles in 5 minutes. Granted, in a gas car that's a full tank usually, but let's be reasonable about what we can expect in the near-ish future.

Having wireless tech that can charge that fast would be even better. Maybe get on a little conveyer belt similar to an automated carwash and by the time you exit, you have 50 more miles than before. Hell, imagine these things running parallel to a road like a pit lane on a racetrack. Move on the track for 5 minutes, then they turn around and grab cars going the opposite direction.

Seems pretty inefficient and probably a logistical nightmare, but it would be cool to see it work!

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by minhazm on Monday September 05, 2022 @01:10AM (#32720778)
We can already do more than 50 miles of range in 5 minutes. For example a Tesla Model Y is rated at about 0.234 kWh/mile, round up to 0.25 kWh/mile. To get 50 miles of range you need 12.5 kWh, in order to get that in 5 minutes you need a charging speed of 150 kW. Tesla V2 superchargers already do 150 kW and V3 does 250 kW, which would only take 3 minutes to get 50 miles of range. Of course the actual charging curve depends on your battery state of charge but 50 miles in 5 minutes is very achievable in most cases, at least with Tesla.

Now doing this in a portable way is the difficult part. There are a few trucks now that can do 7-10 kW output to charge cars, but that's only about 30-40 miles of range per hour, which is still quite slow. But it might be enough to top you up for 15-20 mins to get you 10-15 miles down the road to a charger. I imagine this will improve though quite a bit as more EVs are adopted. I think if we can get to 50 kW chargers from service vehicles that's good enough. On a 50 kW charger 15 minutes of charging will give you 50 miles of range on a Tesla, and on less efficient cars it will still give you at 30+ miles.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by elihu on Monday September 05, 2022 @04:35AM (#32721895)
You can do a lot better than that; just electrify the roads so that cars can recharge while travelling at highway speeds.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/12/worlds-f...

There's basically three options: overhead lines, which are cheap but kind of ugly and don't really work for passenger cars (they'd need a really tall pantograph to reach as high as a truck), rails embedded in the road surface which can be used by cars and trucks but are more expensive than overhead lines, and wireless charging which is much more expensive than rails and the amount of power you can reasonably transfer is pretty limited.

I'm in favor of the rail approach, like they're testing in Sweden. If some billionaire with money burning a hole in your pocket is reading this, might I suggest buying a stretch of land parallel to a busy highway and constructing a parallel road with rail-style charging, and establish an in-motion charging standard. Let people charge for free and see what comes of it.

In the long run I hope all the major highways get electrified this way. It's disappointing that Congress isn't already working on this.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by silverspoonin on Monday September 05, 2022 @01:01AM (#32720724)
We already have those fast chargers. The average EV gets 3-4 miles/kwh. 50 miles would be about 15 kwh. To deliver 15kwh in 5 minutes, you'd need 180kw charging. The fastest widely available chargers currently go up to 350kw. Kia EV6/Hyundai Ioniq 5 charge from 10-80% (>200 miles) in 18 minutes (due to battery limitations).
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by fullstop on Monday September 05, 2022 @09:04AM (#32723864)
Something else to consider is that EVs can remain idle in traffic without consuming much battery. They're not constantly consuming fuel like most ICE vehicles.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by reaperducer on Monday September 05, 2022 @09:29AM (#32724070)
But if you're fleeing a hurricane, chances are you have the air conditioner on. It's generally hot and humid. You. Any have the windows open because of the rain, but you need the AC to keep the windshield clear. How does that affect battery use in an EV?
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by fullstop on Monday September 05, 2022 @09:32AM (#32724108)
Tesla has "Camp Mode" which can regulate the temperature for nearly two days on a full charge.

I don't have a Tesla, but maybe someone here does and can chime in.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by ThunderSizzle on Monday September 05, 2022 @12:58PM (#32726473)
You can idle a ICE car for maybe 16 hours easily with a half-tank, although this varies a lot [1]. With rationing your fuel, running for 10-30 minutes for every hour, you can maintain survivable temperature for at least double that (32 hours on half tank) to perhaps 96 hours, or 4 days. Double that for a full tank of gas.

If you want EVs to take over, get feature parity with the current technology.

[1] https://www.autotrader.ca/editorial/20190201/how-long-can-yo...

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by elihu on Monday September 05, 2022 @03:49AM (#32721615)
Vehicle-to-vehicle charging is starting to be a thing, and there's always the option of using another vehicle to tow you. (You could even use regenerative braking on the towed car to recharge the battery.)

Realistically, that's an extreme case and some ICE vehicles might break down too for whatever reason. In that situation if there's no other option you'd probably just ditch your car and get a ride from someone else.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by osigurdson on Sunday September 04, 2022 @10:56PM (#32720014)
An EV makes a great second car in Canada but the long distances and cold weather are problematic for current EV technology. Hopefully that improves relatively soon.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by elihu on Monday September 05, 2022 @04:04AM (#32721698)
I think the solution for batteries in cold weather is to insulate the pack and heat the battery "coolant". Almost all modern EVs use liquid cooling of some kind. (Nissan Leaves are the exception; I don't know if they've added that in newer versions, but it's why Leaf battery packs were notorious for wearing out quickly.)

I don't know if battery heaters are a common feature on current EVs. I'd think it would be particularly useful for LFP cells, which can be damaged if you try to charge them when they're below freezing. They can be discharged safely (if not efficiently) at much lower temperatures, which means you could "bootstrap" the car in cold weather by using the battery to heat itself until it gets warm enough to charge (without which you can't use regenerative braking).

It wouldn't be that far-fetched to imagine a battery cell with a built-in heating element (e.g. an internal 1 ohm resistor across the battery terminals) that, when activated, keeps the cell at at least room temperature and shuts off when the battery gets up to temperature. Normally you'd only activate the heater when charging or driving.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by osigurdson on Monday September 05, 2022 @11:35AM (#32725447)
Resistive heating using a battery offends my sensibilities. It takes beautiful low entropy energy and irreversibly converts it high entropy heat.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by elihu on Monday September 05, 2022 @04:17PM (#32728943)
I can sympathize with that, but if the choice is between, say, using 1% of the battery capacity to heat the cell versus losing 25% of the capacity because they just don't work efficiently in the cold, going with the 1st option seems like the right move.

Although maybe that's not right... if a large amount of energy is "lost" when the battery is too cold, that energy has to go somewhere. If it ends up as heat anyways, maybe it's really functionally equivalent to having a heating element in the cell. In which case the solution is probably just to insulate the batteries better.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by sandworm101 on Sunday September 04, 2022 @11:11PM (#32720090)
LoL. Don't worry. Global warming will deal with the low temperatures.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by ben_w on Monday September 05, 2022 @06:38AM (#32722750)
Toronto climate, average low, January: −6.7 °C (19.9 °F)

Temperature change needed for complete loss of Greenland ice sheet: between 1 and 4 °C. (That's a change by, not a change to).

Effect of complete loss of Greenland ice sheet: 7.2 meter sea level rise.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by sandworm101 on Monday September 05, 2022 @09:07AM (#32723882)
Torono isnt really typical. It is southern canada, and a bit of a heat island. Fort Mcmurray (that had to evac a few years ago) average january low: -22.5c. Places like that have almost 90c temperature swings from low to high in a given year (-50 to +35).
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by ben_w on Monday September 05, 2022 @11:32AM (#32725410)
The Toronto region contains about 25% of the Canadian population, which is sufficient for my point.

Your attempt at nit picking, if it were valid, would actually makes it much worse: a temperature increase sufficient to turn "-22c" into "we don't need to worry about cold batteries" requires close to double the difference between today and the highest estimated average global temperature ever in the biological history of the planet, and that temperature happened before trees had evolved.

For example, naïvely adding 22 C (22.5 says Wiki) to the average so that the coldest was no longer below freezing, your Fort McMurray would have a new July average high of 46.2 C, which is above the current average of Death Valley 10 months of the year and pretty close the other two.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by adrianN on Monday September 05, 2022 @05:49AM (#32722378)
Some kind companies can probably also set up generators to top up batteries.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by epistasis on Sunday September 04, 2022 @10:07PM (#32719746)
It seems like cars are the problem here though?

If people want to live in remote areas and pollute a ton, that's just fine as long as they pay to clean up the mess they make for everyone else. Direct carbon capture from the air is about $500/ton right now, which is only about $5/gallon of gas.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by sandworm101 on Sunday September 04, 2022 @10:12PM (#32719771)
>> If people want to live in remote areas and pollute a ton

Well... if you want lumber, minerals, metals, petrochemicals and food, then you too will need people living "in remote areas".

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by epistasis on Sunday September 04, 2022 @10:21PM (#32719813)
Seems fine as long as they pay to clean up their mess, which means that their costs will be higher which they pass on.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by sandworm101 on Sunday September 04, 2022 @11:05PM (#32720053)
The next time I see a farmer I'll pass along that it is "fine" that he continue growing the food people eat. He will appreciate having permission so to do.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by epistasis on Sunday September 04, 2022 @11:19PM (#32720135)
I don't think you understand what I was saying "fine" too.

But people need to pay for the damage they inflict on the world. Nobody is so "special" or snowflake that they get exempted. Farmers are adults, they can be treated like any other adult in our society.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by osigurdson on Monday September 05, 2022 @01:02AM (#32720733)
It seems that we are redefining things such that the only way to cause "damage" to the world is via carbon emissions (humans are very good at focusing on one metric to the exclusion of all others). Is there any "damage" done in having greater numbers of the world's poor die of starvation since we've reduced agricultural output in our quest to reduce carbon emissions? Perhaps we can dabble in fertilizer reduction after we've exhausted carbon capture from coal fired electricity plants (particularly in China and the US who are the largest emitters and still use a lot of coal) or at least converted those to natural gas. Messing with agriculture, particularly right now with the current geopolitical situation is very stupid.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by elihu on Monday September 05, 2022 @04:09AM (#32721728)
For that to work we'd need both a carbon tax (or something equivalent) and a heavy tariff on goods that are imported from countries without such a tax. As long as both of those things can be enacted at once, I'm in favor.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by NateEag on Monday September 05, 2022 @10:43AM (#32724855)
The point is that the farmer and miner become the saints doing penance on our behalf - we all benefit from the work they do, then insist that they handle all the costs of the negative externalities their work produces.

Sure, I suppose that could be priced into what they charge for their products. That may be a nontrivial challenge to work out, though, and it's possible they'll no longer be able to make a sustainable product after doing so.

Life is complicated and easy answers are often wrong.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by magicalist on Monday September 05, 2022 @11:46AM (#32725637)
> The point is that the farmer and miner become the saints doing penance on our behalf - we all benefit from the work they do

Seems more like this kind of take is an attempt to canonize them.

They're economic actors. Their work is very important, but that's why they, you know, take money in exchange for their output.

Excusing externalities is how we get corporate structures where officers and shareholders are richly rewarded and tax payers get to pay for (and often live in) the SuperFund site after the company leaves.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by anon291 on Monday September 05, 2022 @01:31AM (#32720882)
The cost will just be passed to you anyway.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by phinnaeus on Monday September 05, 2022 @03:19AM (#32721460)
> which means that their costs will be higher which they pass on.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by JumpCrisscross on Sunday September 04, 2022 @11:10PM (#32720084)
There are better optimisations for emissions than chasing farmers and miners.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by epistasis on Sunday September 04, 2022 @11:21PM (#32720151)
Such as?

I'm generally anti-carbon tax because it's the solution to the problem that is obvious, simple, and wrong. But when there are no other solutions, charging for cleanup is the way to go.

Farmers and miners pay for their costs. They can continue to do so and pass their costs on. Some farmers, at least in the US, we massively subsidize to a ridiculous extent in a make-work program for massive amounts of soy and corn. But this is an economic choice that is relatively recent in the history of the US, and we can decide at any moment to improve the efficiency of the economy by making externalized costs internal.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by Panzer04 on Monday September 05, 2022 @01:31AM (#32720883)
Why is a carbon tax wrong? It seems very similar in principle to your proposal?
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by epistasis on Monday September 05, 2022 @02:36AM (#32721212)
I think a tax on certain sectors can work fine. Especially those sectors with no other options, and that must simply pay to extract the CO2 from the atmosphere that they put into it. However, an economy-wide tax ignores the differing amounts of technological development difficulty, access to capital, and political influence that varies so widely between sectors.

So a carbon tax on electricity generation sources works ok to incentivize a switch and internalize the externalities, but it's pretty equivalent to the general ITC/PTC subsidies that have recently been passed, with the exception that they are sector specific.

An economy wide carbon tax does almost nothing to incentivize decarbonization of steel or concrete, as the tech isn't there, nobody has spare money to invest in a solution, and the tax wouldn't necessarily increase the price of end products much. They need very specific industrial policy in these sectors to develop alternatives and put them into production.

Finally a carbon tax creates an entirely unified political coalition, across many sectors of the economy, to oppose the tax. So setting the tax at a level that is right to incentivize change is guaranteed to be nearly impossible, because od the breadth and political strength of the opposition to it. Specific carrots and sticks for each sector are what can drive real change in each sector.

If it was 1980, I'd be supporting a carbon tax. But we need to move far more quickly now to change our economic production systems than a carbon tax could ever conceivably achieve.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by elihu on Monday September 05, 2022 @04:24AM (#32721812)
I think a blanket carbon tax at least creates a situation where everyone is paying , in some way, for the externalities they're causing. If some industries don't want to decarbonize because the tax is rounding error to them, then maybe you'd need additional rules or regulations, or maybe we need public investment in some new technology.

I can't think of a case where exempting some group from a carbon tax would be good policy. There is a pretty good argument though that a carbon tax would be regressive, and probably should be compensated for in some way so that poor people don't come out worse off, such as by reducing income tax in the lower brackets.

I think the hardest sector to decarbonize is going to be the military (with the exception of some small percentage of navy ships that are nuclear powered). I could see plug-in hybrid army vehicles eventually being a thing, though. Being able to run off of either diesel or electricity provides a lot of logistical flexibility. You can save the petroleum for when you really need to move long distances.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by reaperducer on Monday September 05, 2022 @12:25AM (#32720498)
If people want to live in remote areas

This is an easily solved problem. Just stop eating. Once you stop eating, then we don't have to have farmers and their remotely-located support communities growing food for you.

For bonus points, stop using computers. Electronics are made up of all kinds of metals that are mined in remote locations. So, stop using electricity at all, if you're really concerned about this.

And while you're at it, give up toilet paper. It comes from trees that are waaaay out in the forest. If you stop wiping, then we don't have to truck trees to paper mills to make toilet paper for people in the city to use.

Do your part.

Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by s5300 on Monday September 05, 2022 @01:42AM (#32720945)
Lot of strawmans here.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by ThunderSizzle on Monday September 05, 2022 @01:01PM (#32726501)
The OP suggesting rural living is entirely to blame is a strawman and absurd, and was presented with no evidence that removing all rural areas would fix any problem.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by epistasis on Monday September 05, 2022 @06:42PM (#32730355)
88,000 people in a town isn't rural living.
Re:EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted by inferiorhuman on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:03AM (#32733461)
https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/rural-economy-population/rur...

  Sometimes population density is the defining concern,
  in other cases it is geographic isolation.  Small population
  size typically characterizes a rural place, but how small is
  rural? Population thresholds used to differentiate rural and
  urban communities range from 2,500 up to 50,000, depending on
  the definition.
So yeah 88,000 people could be rural if your primary factor is population density.