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Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by Gigachad on Saturday August 27, 2022 @08:17PM (#32624540)
>All software will be open source, and no one will make money with software.

I'm really not convinced. The chart shows Photoshop having an alternative in with GIMP in 1998. And 24 years later, people are still paying lots of money for Photoshop. Pretty much all of these examples are similar. Yes open source has replaced some categories of paid software like VCS, but in a way it just opened up more paid software in the form of hosts and surrounding tooling like Github and paid git guis.

If anything I think we have moved backwards. We are no longer looking at making copies of grep and dd. If you want to make an actual alternative to Photoshop you'll need thousands of workers spread over a lot of skill sets. You need cloud technology specialists, AI/ML experts, R&D, design experts to do real studies and interviews with users, etc. You need teams of people working on out there new and untested ideas pushing the state of the art for image editing. While the alternatives are still trying to catch up to 2015 UI design patterns.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by ethbr0 on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:24PM (#32624879)
There's a reliable test for predicting the success of failure of open source software: "Does it directly interact with users?"

If the answer is yes, OSS has mostly been an alternative option but not the first choice. (With all due respect and deference to the work put in by OSS GUI teams!)

If the answer is no, and especially if it's a shared need but not the primary product (e.g. kernel, web server, intermediate processing step), then OSS has taken over the world.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by tuatoru on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:30PM (#32624907)
Not totally, not till Oracle has been tipped into the dustbin of history. (Come the day!)

I think Cisco still uses proprietary software too.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by nine_k on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:36PM (#32625534)
With Oracle's strong ties with government structures, it's unlikely that it will be gone in the next 30 years.

I'd say that the cutting point is when no new project considers Oracle as a viable tool. This time has largely come already.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by ethbr0 on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:39PM (#32624950)
Fair! Although I've never worked with a shop that was not-Oracle and migrating to Oracle. Sadly, there's the long tail of places with existing, business critical Oracle use.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by pjmlp on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:52PM (#32625603)
Anyone that wants top tier RDMS, it nice graphical debuggers for stored procedures, integration of Java and .NET into the database, distributed transactions, raw file system accesses, web services on the DB layer, among several other features, besides Oracle, there is only MS SQL Server and the RDMS owned by IBM like DB 2 and Informix.

MySQL and Postgres are kind of nice, but not really the same league at tooling level.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by bruce511 on Sunday August 28, 2022 @12:47AM (#32625850)
This is completely in line with the premise above.

If the database is primarily a data store, unseen by the end user, then Postgress, Firebird etc are fine. If however the database is an active part of the development stack, being used by lots of "users", writing new code etc, then commercial offerings with better tooling win.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by EGreg on Sunday August 28, 2022 @01:21AM (#32625992)
Yes you’re right. But OSS opens up a free market of vendors. Consider how Wordpress powers 40% of all websites in the world. The website owners pay hosts etc. to have full control and they arent locked into a monopoly vendor, but end users just use the stuff.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by Animats on Sunday August 28, 2022 @03:26AM (#32626477)
Yes. Open source software people very rarely do good graphical user interfaces. Unclear why this is so. But it is.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by medoc on Sunday August 28, 2022 @03:42AM (#32626549)
For making a good GUI, the tech guys need to be ordered around by non-tech guys who think like, or talk to, regular users and know what is needed. Tech guys don't like this, so someone needs to pay for their suffering.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by 082349872349872 on Sunday August 28, 2022 @10:01AM (#32628449)
I suspect Dijkstra made the relevant distinction in a different context: the open source process is geared to providing correct software, not pleasant software.

> The pleasantness problem deals with the question how satisfactory a system meeting a given functional specification would be; the correctness problem deals with the question whether a given system meets that functional specification. The correctness problem being an entirely technical one, the functional specification can provide strong heuristic guidance for the system designer.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by einpoklum on Sunday August 28, 2022 @09:14AM (#32628156)
You have clearly not see the user interface of most (as opposed to the most popular) pieces of closed-source software.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by noirbot on Sunday August 28, 2022 @09:43AM (#32628332)
That's not really a rebuttal though. 90% of all UX can be bad, but it's still notable if 99% of OSS UX is bad.

Actually needing to sell your product eventually/get people to use it seems to be a fairly necessary part of ending up with a good UX.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by onionisafruit on Sunday August 28, 2022 @12:03AM (#32625644)
I never considered this differentiator before, but it makes sense.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by sverhagen on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:26PM (#32624889)
GIMP is a good alternative to Photoshop for someone like me, who is not a professional designer, just someone who needs to touch up an occasional picture. So what GIMP has done is removing my "need" to run an illegal copy of Photoshop (a practice I really hated and stopped with a long time ago). If I'm a professional user of anything, I should be ready to pay for it. Else hard to claim I'm a professional.

What the article should acknowledge is the difference between an alternative and the shift of which tool is... the gold standard.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by eru on Saturday August 27, 2022 @10:38PM (#32625278)
> If anything I think we have moved backwards. We are no longer looking at making copies of grep and dd. If you want to make an actual alternative to Photoshop you'll need thousands of workers spread over a lot of skill sets. You need cloud technology specialists, AI/ML experts, R&D, design experts to do real studies and interviews with users, etc. [...]

I'd see that as making progress, not moving backwards!

It means open source has solved the 'easy' cases, and only the harder ones remain.

(It's a bit like after humans have visited the moon, complaining that going to Mars will require more effort; and saying that this means we have moved backwards.)

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by 3np on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:05PM (#32625398)
100%. That the author think it's "backwards" that they can't run a sustainable business by copying what's already been made but need to put in some actual work (and that building profitable software inherently must involves AI/ML experts and cloud specialist) speaks more about OPs bias than about actual requirements. Not meaning to point fingers at them specifically too much; they're most likely in a bubble where these views are implicitly assumed.

As for the specific example of Photoshop, well, yeah.. Adobe has put in at least that much work and resources behind it, so what do you expect is required to get a fair fight? Photoshop was an incredibly complex and refined piece of software with immense work behind it before they moved to the cloud. 99% you wouldn't pull that off in 2008 either. That GIMP is still mostly unheard of outside of enthusiast circles and never posed any threat to Adobe shows that it takes way more than a handful of skilled devs.

> Copies of grep

https://github.com/BurntSushi/ripgrep started in 2016 and went stable in 2019. It's not being sold as a SaaS subscription because why would it?

I often hear complaints about entitled users but I get some "entitled tech founder" vibes here, as if not being able to sustain on rent-seeking behavior is a defect.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by 3np on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:30PM (#32625508)
Looks like I conflated two different perspectives above. Oh well. Take it for what it is.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by Ygg2 on Saturday August 27, 2022 @08:49PM (#32624693)
Well on one hand OSS did make Blender which is moving towards a defacto standard in game making at least.

Otoh nothing prohibits another OSS software appearing and stealing an OSS incumbent's thunder. See Krita and Gimp.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by jwmcq on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:50PM (#32625006)
I think it's also worth noting that OSS did not 'make' Blender initially - it was a closed-source application. It's a resounding OSS success these days, but had already been 'productised' before the the release of the source.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by pjmlp on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:57PM (#32625620)
Blender was a commercial product, whose main users kept supporting after it went open source.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by Ygg2 on Sunday August 28, 2022 @05:05AM (#32626880)
And early Blender sucked ass compared to today. While it starting as a commercial product might have helped at start, right now it's no longer the case.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by pjmlp on Sunday August 28, 2022 @08:35AM (#32627916)
Because the commercial partners cared enough to keep putting the money to further develop it.

Blender always had a professional userbase around it, unlike the Photoshop wannabe competition.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by kyriakos on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:10PM (#32624790)
Krita is great but has a different use case than gimp.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by ekianjo on Saturday August 27, 2022 @08:55PM (#32624717)
Krita is nothing like GIMP
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by Aeolun on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:10PM (#32624792)
In a good way. I’ve certainly completely replaced Gimp with Krita for my uses.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by Ygg2 on Saturday August 27, 2022 @08:58PM (#32624738)
To an extent, yes. But as someone who likes to draw and not edit pictures, they fill a similar niche.

I mean I heard people use Blender as a Gimp replacement. Because it can edit huge number of files in a batch.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by kyriakos on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:11PM (#32624802)
People will use anything instead of gimp to be honest. Haven't tried it in a while but everytime I did in the past I can't help but question if it's developers actually use their own software.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by lvass on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:55PM (#32625040)
Not me. Whenever I try alternatives, I can't help but question if people who use GIMP alternatives actually tried reading the GIMP manual.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by kyriakos on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:57PM (#32625047)
If you need the manual it most probably means the UI needs improvement.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by lvass on Saturday August 27, 2022 @10:02PM (#32625073)
Only under the assumption they're designed for usage without the manual. I understand most things are but they definitely don't have to be. GIMP unfortunately may not be particularly explicit about this but having all users read the manual feels very much intended.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by cowtools on Saturday August 27, 2022 @08:35PM (#32624633)
You only have to build the alternative once. Yes, there have been some areas where proprietary software has held its ground, but has done just that- it has not replaced free software in the areas that it has control over.

The takeover of free software may be slow, but it is one-directional.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by glasshug on Saturday August 27, 2022 @08:56PM (#32624725)
I wish this were true! But keeping your software current in 2022 is an continuous project. UIs improve, platforms shift, features expand, vulns appear, needs change, server bills need to be paid.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by cowtools on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:39PM (#32624951)
I think this is a self-aggrandizing myth that is common in forums like HN with lots of programmers and designers:

- UI's usually do not improve. They "improve" by making subjective changes for the benefit of the maker (often at the cost of the user).

- Platforms are constantly shifting when they are owned by corporations. At first, businesses will penetrate the market by creating a competitive platform. Once their platform has reached critical market share, they will switch to milking their users who are now trapped due to vendor lock-in. This forces users of proprietary software to constantly jump ship in order to get a good deal.

- Features sometimes expand, but most apps will reach a point where it no longer makes sense to add additional features. In the free-software world, we generally try to make an ecosystem of programs that work together: if a single program is too complex, its features may be divided into several smaller programs. In the corporate world, a single program may be bloated and expanded long past the point at which additional complexity will serve the user- so long as developers can continue to invent new ways to extract money, data, etc from their users.

- New vulnerabilities may be uncovered, but generally vulnerabilities are only added when the complexity of program increases. Vulnerabilities don't just appear out of nowhere. If you write a program, it doesn't just become more vulnerable over time just by merit of being old.

- Server bills usually need to be paid because people have inserted themselves as middlemen. If the internet was designed in a way that did not require paying a racketeering fee for DNS, PKI, etc. then we would see a lot of decentralized alternatives to "essential" services.

It's hard for me to entirely put into words how flawed your statement is. If you have time, you may want to check out a book called "Bullshit Jobs: A Theory" by David Graeber (https://libgen.gs/edition.php?id=5852679). It might give you a new perspective on the software industry.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by johnfn on Saturday August 27, 2022 @10:04PM (#32625084)
Man, I couldn't disagree more strongly! Programming is like building a house on shifting sand. How many projects that you haven't touched in the last 5 years still run? If you're anything like me, the percentage is vanishingly small - and my old projects aren't even that complicated. If you find that this is a belief "common in forums like HN with lots of programmers", I suspect that's because engineers are the most likely to have the hard-earned experience!

I mean, just look at HN for examples. Quite literally yesterday it happened again: Heroku decided to turn off all old free apps. That's a whole bunch of my old apps that are about to deprecate and break unless I do some work on them.

> Features sometimes expand, but most apps will reach a point where it no longer makes sense to add additional features.

I think this is overly idealistic, or perhaps limited to too small of a problem space. If your software stops adding features, it will quickly be out-competed by software which does have new features that improve productivity. I suppose you could argue that some apps are "finished", but I tend to see those as a rather small subset of all apps - things like single-use command-line utilities, say, like grep and awk. It's hard for me to fathom Photoshop ever being finished - until you're beaming ideas directly from brain to canvas, there's always the possibility that new features can save more time[1].

> Vulnerabilities don't just appear out of nowhere

But this is exactly what vulnerabilities do. One day, there isn't Heartbleed. The next day there is. One day, your Java dependencies are fine. The next day, log4j is broken for everyone on the internet. If you're not on call to solve problems like these, no one is going to use your app.

I don't really understand how you can say "[a program] doesn't just become more vulnerable over time just by merit of being old". This is exactly what happens to any program with dependencies.

> Server bills usually need to be paid because people have inserted themselves as middlemen

People have inserted themselves as middlemen because servers require upkeep, and upkeeping a server takes the time of an experienced professional. They need to be patched for vulns (again), maybe you need to swap out your SSD because it finally ran out of writes, or any in a litany of other problems.

[1]: Then again, with DALL-E, maybe this is happening sooner than we think - but that's beside the point.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by einpoklum on Sunday August 28, 2022 @09:20AM (#32628193)
> How many projects that you haven't touched in the last 5 years still run?

The ones which were built like a tank in terms of adherence to standards, minimization of dependencies and of assumptions regarding the platform, non-flakey build system etc.

> If your software stops adding features, it will quickly be out-competed by software which does have new features

Not usually. You're probably thinking of things like web browsers.

> because servers require upkeep

If your software does not require continuously running global server(s) then that is not an issue.

Otherwise I mostly agree.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by supportlocal4h on Sunday August 28, 2022 @12:02PM (#32629419)
Ah, shucks. Let's not argue. You're both right. Can we embrace great points on both sides without strong diageement?
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by johnfn on Sunday August 28, 2022 @06:37PM (#32632760)
Haha, you know what, that's pretty fair.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by cowtools on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:48PM (#32625586)
>I mean, just look at HN for examples. Quite literally yesterday it happened again: Heroku decided to turn off all old free apps. That's a whole bunch of my old apps that are about to deprecate and break unless I do some work on them.

Yeah, pretty short-sighted of you to go out of your way to design those systems in a way that is dependent on a single company hosting it.

>I suppose you could argue that some apps are "finished", but I tend to see those as a rather small subset of all apps - things like single-use command-line utilities, say, like grep and awk. It's hard for me to fathom Photoshop ever being finished

In an ideal computing environment, the functionalities of a single bloated program like adobe photoshop are completely encompassed by an environment of general-purpose utilities in a way that is analogous to unix shell programs that can interact to perform a variety of tasks.

Modern operating systems are intentionally designed in a way that promotes the commercialization of software. For example, why is it that all third-party software on iOS or android is packaged into distinct, sandboxed "apps" each with their own accompanying icons and whatnot? It's clear that the ability for these "apps" to perform any real inter-process communication is hampered, because the boundaries of the apps represent the boundaries of different competing commercial entities. It is sort of like conway's law, but in reverse: by enforcing a certain structure on software that is distributed, you are selecting for a particular corporate development structure. This analogy goes much deeper than what I can current find the words for. The whole system is quite insidiously woven together.

It is impossible to run any sort of background process (for example, a daemon) in a way that is transparent to other running processes, but it does allow apps to make outgoing connections. This makes the user dependent on an intermediate to provide inter-app communication as a sort of internet-based service.

So I hear you say that software has to compete with the endless "upgrades" of its competitors. I think we have almost never seen a market in which free software based on the unix philosophy has actually competed on its own terms. What we've seen is a market where free software competes on a commercial basis- in producing a distinct, marketable product (as opposed to an environment of inter-working tools) that is comparable to an existing product such that consumers are familiar with it. The unix shell environment is a rare example of an actually good idea coming out of the commercial software, and it's a major foothold for free software that has continued that legacy.

>But this is exactly what vulnerabilities do. One day, there isn't Heartbleed. The next day there is.

If a tree falls in the middle of a forest and no one hears it, does it make a sound? If there's a bug in software but no one uncovers it, is it a vulnerability? Apparently not according to you.

There would be no heartbleed if there was no implementation of the mostly-useless heartbeat faculty. There would be no log4jshell if there was no implementation of the bloated JNDI crap. You are correct, this is exactly what happens when programmers include many useless, bloated, and unvetted dependencies in their project.

Here is the way I see it: At some point you will reach a point in your work where the utility-to-complexity tradeoff will taper off. There is an ideal version of every program that is bug-free and at the plateu of this utility-to-complexity curve. The purpose of all programming is to get close enough to the ideal system and finish- to make something that works well reliably.

Saying that one must continuously revise a program forever to account for new features or vulnerabilities or service providers is like saying that you should continuously revise a book forever because you need to add another chapter or fix another typo or move to another publisher because Heroku stopped printing your book. The goal of writing is to produce a useful-enough book built on sound knowledge, if you are producing something that you think constantly deserves to be revised then you are incompetent- either because you cannot recognize a finished product or because you cannot produce one.

The reason why commercial software is often updated with useless and inane features (much like a college textbook!) obviously serves a much more sinister motive than what you've described here.

>People have inserted themselves as middlemen because servers require upkeep, and up-keeping a server takes the time of an experienced professional. They need to be patched for vulns (again), maybe you need to swap out your SSD because it finally ran out of writes, or any in a litany of other problems.

I see the fact that a service is critically dependent on a single server or maintainer as a design failure. Software should allow users to be more self-sufficient, not less. These centralized systems make you reliant on some sysadmin or someone who essentially performs a "useless job". Check out that book I linked earlier. It's an interesting read.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by bruce511 on Sunday August 28, 2022 @01:11AM (#32625955)
>> the fact that a service is critically dependent on a single server or maintainer as a design failure. Software should allow users to be more self-sufficient, not less.

Software allows users to be as self-sufficient or not, depending on their skills and resources. There is room for a whole spectrum of users, and obviously as developers we fall on that spectrum as well.

Self suffiency, in any area, is expensive in time, and money. I can grow my own food by buying the land and devoting all day to farming. I'm self sufficient, but I don't have time for anything else.

Equally I can choose to spend time running my own servers. I can buy hardware, learn many things, make mistakes, but be self sufficient.

However all that time spent is time I'm not focusing on my business. If my cousin runs a school, they want a "system that just works". They aren't interested in being self-sufficient. They don't have the time, or money, to (safely) host their own software. They are too busy adding value to their business elsewhere.

(most) OSS to some extent solves a problem that only very few people have. It caters to those who are time rich but cash poor. Most people though are time poor, and can easily find cash to make problems go away.

Adobe wins over Gimp because it does more, faster, thus saving the user time. Its a lot easier to find money than time, so paying the subscription is trivial. If it saves an hour a month, you're ahead even at minimum wage levels.

Of course there are those who value self-sufficiency, who seek out solutions that reduce, or remove, the supply chain. These folk exist in every part of society, and it is a perfectly good approach.

But it is worth understanding that this is a tiny subset of people. Most buy their food in a shop. Most are just using their computer to perform tasks. They have no more desire to write their own code, or host their own server, than they do to grow their own food.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by johnfn on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:59PM (#32625629)
> Yeah, pretty short-sighted of you to go out of your way to design those systems in a way that is dependent on a single company hosting it.

I don't think we can have a productive conversation if you make statements like these.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by archagon on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:10PM (#32625418)
I question the utility of most features Adobe adds to PS these days; but in any case, the problem is easily solved by building a robust plugin system and distributing the work.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by melagonster on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:30PM (#32625507)
I had found some good new features in Microsoft office 365, I guess the sapce between now and finishing still big.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by 3np on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:25PM (#32625477)
I recently spent some time on reviving an old (FLOSS, all server-side, the only UI being CLI and an HTTP API) nodejs 8 software built mostly according to what was considered best practice at the time. I can confidently say you're missing important nuance here.

A counter-argument to this could be "most people were doing it wrong at the time and those best-practices proved to be not very sustainable so your old software was probably garbage already" but at that point we're entering the realm of dismissing reality.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by whateveracct on Saturday August 27, 2022 @10:36PM (#32625268)
People still use programs like grafx2 and klystrack. They don't need big updates - they are what they are and do what they do nicely.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by mattkrause on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:37PM (#32625535)
As a counter-example, the Affinity family of Photo, Designer, and Publisher seem to be doing pretty well as a partial commercial replacement for Abobe CC. I don't know how many Serif employs, but I'd be surprised if it were thousands. It's true that Affinity does a lot less, especially preproduction stuff, but a lot of "light" Adobe users seem happy with it.

As for grep, there are plenty of newer attempts, like ripgrep, ack, and ag, too.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by imgabe on Saturday August 27, 2022 @10:05PM (#32625085)
The actual alternative to Photoshop for most people who just need to do simple edits ends up being photopea or another web app (there’s at least one other popular one I forget the name of). Most people don’t have the patience to install GIMP and figure out the interface.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by bredren on Saturday August 27, 2022 @10:10PM (#32625110)
Yes, the photoshop web clone photopea is remarkably good for quick and dirty.

It has all the old hot keys and export (download in a format) is fast.

I would not consider gimp over that site at this point. But maybe if the site started restrictions or forcing payments I would.

More likely an os web app alternative would take the lead.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by nine_k on Saturday August 27, 2022 @11:56PM (#32625619)
Presence of an alternative ≠ the alternative replacing the incumbent.

Linux has not completely replaced Windows or macOS, it even has not replaced FreeBSD. But having it as an alternative, even back in 1990s when it was not yet mature, was very important.

Firefox has not replaced MSIE or Chrome, but its presence is very, very important for the entire Web, to my mind.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by bambax on Sunday August 28, 2022 @03:30AM (#32626492)
> If you want to make an actual alternative to Photoshop you'll need thousands of workers spread over a lot of skill sets. You need cloud technology specialists, AI/ML experts, R&D, design experts to do real studies and interviews with users, etc.

Photopea is a feature-complete online image editor. It's widely successful. It's not open source, but it's the work of just one guy.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by Gigachad on Sunday August 28, 2022 @07:15AM (#32627440)
Nothing is ever feature complete, or alternatively, and image editor is feature complete when it reads my mind and spits out the perfect image without me doing any work. Anything short of that is room for improvement. Sure, there are a lot of people who don't need everything photoshop offers, but there are also a lot that do so people will continue paying for proprietary software for as long as that proprietary software gets the closest to spitting out the right image with the least effort.
Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by bambax on Sunday August 28, 2022 @07:47AM (#32627609)
> Nothing is ever feature complete

Of course. I meant it's suitable for many, many purposes, which explains why it has millions of users.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by TAForObvReasons on Saturday August 27, 2022 @08:34PM (#32624627)
This is very simple to understand: in the long run, price tends to marginal cost of production. Open source represents the logical endpoint: since marginal cost of software is ~0, the endpoint is something with price ~0. SaaS is a response, but open source is already chipping away at the low end.

As for the general thought about experts, consider web browsers. Advancing the state of the art is extremely expensive, yet the browser vendors are more or less forced to give it away for free. The browsers that either charged money or weren't open source ... for the most part died out.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by jahewson on Saturday August 27, 2022 @09:48PM (#32624995)
> in the long run, price tends to marginal cost of production

Ah but this principle applies to commodity markets, where prices rising above the marginal level would prompt an increase in production from competitors or new entrants to the market.

Software is not a commodity though, nobody other than Adobe makes Photoshop, we can’t increase production of Photoshop. People can create competing products, of course, but that’s just a regular competitive market. This is also why movies and ebooks don’t cost $0.

> browser vendors are more or less forced to give it away for free

Yes but that’s not because of the market, the idea of giving it away free was to distort the market. It was done to crush Netscape and it worked. Now it’s done to grab as many eyeballs as possible and keep competitors off your turf. I think it’s possible that we’ll return to paid web browsers when the interests of the vendors and the users are more closely aligned - in a sense Safari and Edge are already there, as they’re both priced-in to their respective OS’s.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by musicale on Saturday August 27, 2022 @10:20PM (#32625169)
> the idea of giving it away free was to distort the market. It was done to crush Netscape

Oh this is interesting:

> [Netscape Navigator] Version 3.0 was also available in a "Gold" version which featured a WYSIWYG HTML editor (later added to Netscape Communicator as a standard feature), and was sold as retail software for profit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netscape_(web_browser)

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by musicale on Saturday August 27, 2022 @10:18PM (#32625157)
> It was done to crush Netscape and it worked

It would have been interesting to see how things would have turned out had Microsoft been able to continue integrating the OS and web browser.

At this point I expect most users expect the OS to include a web browser and would consider it deficient otherwise. I'm not sure if it's even possible to replace Chrome with Firefox on ChromeOS.

Re:Time Till Open Source Alternative by eru on Saturday August 27, 2022 @10:42PM (#32625304)
You can install Firefox on ChromeOS. (At least I've done it on ChromeOS Flex.) However, just like Windows 98 used Internet Explorer for some of its internals (eg the 'live' Desktop), so does ChromeOS use Chrome for eg tweaking the settings.