> Anyone who thinks the FED will lower rates next year is delusional.

That's quite a take based on a single lagged data point. Does this NFP number even fully capture the effect of their last 75bps hike?

Curious, because I often see Fed capitalized as FED as if it’s an acronym, is there an acronym I’m unaware of?

I believe you're up to speed and when talking about the US Federal Reserve, it's colloquially "The Fed" and not "The FED"

But the fully-capitalized version does show up a lot.

Just rip the bandaid and get rates up to 10-12% where they can effectively combat inflation. These half measures have done nothing to “shock” the magnet.

In case there was any doubt, the parent comment was advocating most readers here find themselves unemployed in time for Christmas.

100% correct. J Pow has done a terrible job. How is a lawyer in charge of the fed?

>Anyone who thinks the FED will lower rates next year is delusional.

Literally nobody thinks that.

The yield on a 1yr treasury was higher yesterday than on a 2yr, which suggests that the market certainly thinks cuts next year are more likely than not.

edit: link to data: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/...

edit2: for the visidata users: vd 'https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/...'

Maybe I'm delusional, but I think the Fed is raising rates just so they can lower them again.

Look at what happened to rates between 16-19. They slowly raised rates in little baby steps, but the moment the 2019 economy started to weeble-wobble, they cut rates almost in half. And when the economy fell over in 2020, they cut rates back down immediately.

It took them 3 years to raise rates from 0.13% to 1.70%, but less than a month to go from 1.60% to 0.05%

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-c...

> Look at what happened to rates between 16-19. They slowly raised rates in little baby steps, but the moment the 2019 economy started to weeble-wobble, they cut rates almost in half.

Yes, raising rates to control inflation during an expansion and then cutting them when the economy weakens is... pretty exactly the usual simplified distillation of “things are behaving as normal” monetary policy. As is greater caution in raising rates (which fights inflation but slows the economy, with the downside risk of triggering/magnifying recession) vs. cutting rates (which stimulates expansion but risks inflation.)

Not sure why you are pretending this totally conventional wisdom description is some kind of contrarian hot take.

I saw this a couple weeks ago too. This could be the first time in around 40 years that they are able to raise interest rates higher than the previous peak before having to cut them.

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/225468/federal-reserve... - no quite no-one...

A lot of people think that. I’m not saying I agree, but it’s a pretty popular take in macro circles on YouTube.

it's a mass delusion on wall Sr that rates will have to be lowered soon...but history shows that inflation is sticky

The market is pricing this outcome. May 2023 onwards fed funds are expecing cuts not hikes.