mister_tee

late followup, it might indeed be that FDIC removed insurance limits for these two banks?

I had seen the first round of announcements around receivership certificates https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html

I'm not sure on the time of that but the Fed press release the evening of the same day has the exception and "all depositors will be made whole" phrasing:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/mone...

Apologies if I'm missing something, is this discussing the new Bank Term Funding Program or some other guarantee?

(edit: I see the phrasing "fully protected by the FDIC" -- this might be the general idea that depositors won't lose anything, but not literally that FDIC is officially extending insurance, I think?)

Anyway, for the BTFP, I think it is generally available to all banks. Seems to allow borrowing against underwater assets at par value, at roughly 4.6% interest.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/file...

While it came together over the weekend[1] there are some guardrails -- including that it only applies to collateral that was already owned at the time of announcement (so far...).

[1] based on zero evidence, I wouldn't be surprised if they have stuff like this war-gamed and sketched out in case

And to go with that you can use $500 ethernet cables, with directional arrows painted on. ACK, and that's not talking about TCP (sorry).

https://www.wired.com/2008/06/snake-oil-alert/

(unfortunately this was from Denon who I've had great luck with an entry-ish-level AVR from for years)

Recognizing these are some unique circumstances, over the last week, expectations for next week's FOMC meeting swung from a near-certain +25bp, to 75% +50bp / 25% +25bp, to 60% +25bp / 40% 0bp. Tomorrow, February's CPI data will be released which might help collapse this wave function.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...

2-year US treasury rate has moved from 5% to 4% over the last few days:

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y

Tether claims they have completely exited their position in commercial paper and are currently over 70% in US T-Bills.

https://tether.to/en/transparency/#reports

Disclaimer that I'm a bit of a Tether skeptic, but if I'm wrong and they either were in, or have been able to get to, a fully-collateralized position of mostly treasuries and are earning 5% interest while paying 0% on USDT, good for them and good for regular people who won't be left holding bags.

I'll always consider Tether in the context of their July 2021 CNBC interview with Deirdre Bosa. Timestamps are relative to the copy at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBEqyiO35cQ

I don't think they've said who the commercial paper counterparties were and claim it was an important trade secret. Traders in the US commercial paper market say they had never heard of the Tether folks which was odd given their attestations would have given them a top 10 global holding (17:20). Explanation, they use intermediaries. Will they give names or details on the intermediaries? Can't, trade secret.

Did they hold Chinese commercial paper? Dodged the question twice (6:30 and re-ask 7:35).

Where are the CEO and CFO of this company that holds $60B of assets? Why don't they talk to media? (24:40)

But hopefully we'll get assurance regarding the reserves soon. They were excited to promise a formal audit in "months not years" during that interview (27:42)... looking forward to this spring so the audit can be released before we hit two years.

(edit: trying to shorten)

I enjoyed this meme on Twitter (saw a link to it, not familiar with any associated authors/commenters/threads): https://twitter.com/dgntec/status/1634621865485271041

Accessible description / save-you-a-click:

Left image: USDC: kitchen cabinet with a glass door; you can see on the inside a stack of dishes has mostly toppled, held up only so long as the door is closed

Right image: USDT: photo of kitchen cabinets with completely opaque wooden doors

(edit: spelling)

I was trying to look up a Tesla special case (where upgrading the infotainment unit removes the radio unless an additional $500 upgrade is purchased) and learned that several EV manufacturers have already removed AM radio because electric motors interfere with that frequency range.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/10/business/media/am-radio-c...

"Carmakers noted that drivers can still stream AM radio on apps and not all electric vehicles have dropped it."

My understanding, anyone is welcome to correct: the 51% attack doesn't apply, but that's because there is a central party with full control from the start.

CBDCs are digital currencies but do not have to be cryptocurrencies with distributed consensus, blockchain, proof of work, etc.

Instead they are likely to be completely centralized; at an (absurd) extreme a global Excel sheet with edit access enabled for the Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair.

Quick PBS summary of company towns: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7AOWLOOT-U

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixteen_Tons

mine was set to 500 (not 5000) as well. I'd moved on from lastpass earlier this year but didn't delete my account... though I suppose in that case I'd wonder if I'd deleted in time, or if they really deleted all my info.

Also frustrating that they decided to drop this update on December 22.

And how do they square "Zero-knowledge security" and the diagram in https://www.lastpass.com/security/zero-knowledge-security

with URLs and last-accessed times being plaintext? I suppose "items in your vault" is doing a lot of work there if they don't count urls as "in" the vault.

if we're looking "at any point," lots of neutral coverage back in the 90s when cable news was boring, and there was Reform Party Candidate-era Trump.

Trump proposes massive one-time tax on the rich

https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/11/09/trump.ric...

the coverage of him winning in 2016 was fairly neutral

live: https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/moment-cnn-projects-...

article: https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/08/politics/election-day-2016-hi...

a bit out of date, missing at least one global financial crisis, but there's a 2004 paper looking at the returns of holding the original S&P500 companies from its start 65 years ago, with some alternative portfolios too.

Some of the particular decisions in the setup may or may not agree with grandpappy, I only skimmed, but it looks like the "survivor's portfolio" has returns in line with S&P500-with-replacement and even outperformed the newcomers slightly.

19 of the largest 20 companies were still around in some form when including mergers and acquisitions... however again this is 2004, and at least Kodak and Sears went out of business since then, IIRC?

https://rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploa...

not an argument but just an FYI for people reading about that idea for the first time: some NAS enclosures (QNAP, Synology?) and some power supplies can use the drives directly without disabling that 3.3V pin.

Agree with it being a combination of many factors on both supply and demand side, but I feel we can't exclude the unprecedented and massive amounts of financial intervention.

I'm not a wonk here but have heard the argument that QE from 2012-2019 was partially to keep deflation at bay. Meaning, QE and ZIRP _did_ increase inflation, even if the result was reaching the target 2%.

The scale of increasing money supply and QE also was much larger this time. Before 2009 Fed balance sheet was under $1T. Actions taken during and around the GFC increased it to $2.1T. During the last couple years they grew it by $5T, and it maxed out just under $9T.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

I might be wrong but don't gifts count against the recipient's annual $10k limit? That is, you could only give $2k to someone who has purchased $8k for themselves, all within the same year?

Though, here is a Bogleheads thread where people suggest buying gift bonds even beyond 10k as you mention, to get higher interest rates now, storing them in the TreasuryDirect "gift box" until a year where the recipient comes in under the limit and they can be transferred.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=306297

edit, adding:

https://thefinancebuff.com/buy-i-bonds-as-gift.html#htoc-pur...

I remember flying into San Jose airport for the first time and the posters weren't advertising restaurants, hotels, and tourist destinations but enterprise routers and firewalls.

I think this is true in the US as well. And possibly liquor in some states (meaning a subset of the states that offer it in the first place).

Some bottled water brand had a tagline "no other water hydrates better"

in case anyone does want to use nitrogen in their tires, I think at least US Costcos with tire centers have free self-service nitrogen inflators for members.

I agree they shouldn't have put the 53% marginal claim right next to the social security point, as the max-marginal people will be well past the cap, but the 53% max marginal rate might still be true?

37% federal + 1.45% FICA (medicare) + 0.9% medicare surtax + 10.3% NY state + 3.8% NYC = 53.4+%

but I don't work in NYC.

best wishes and hope you're doing ok... but on the bright side, it's not even close to too late. Assuming you went to university and started your career at 22, you're only halfway in work-years to 58, and you have a buffer year until you're halfway to 60. Plenty of people start new endeavors in their 40s and 50s.

May be worth being aware of this sort of thing in advance, specifically in case a speedy exit happens, triggered by either party, when you don't have spare time to learn what COBRA is.

example: "Can I cash in my unused vacation days?" If you're in a minority of states like California or Colorado, the answer is "yes, by law." For many other states it may depend on your employer. Knowing you lose all accrued vacation on exit with no compensation is nice to know months in advance.

There's also more considerations, for example, medical FSA plans.

I believe you're up to speed and when talking about the US Federal Reserve, it's colloquially "The Fed" and not "The FED"

But the fully-capitalized version does show up a lot.

JetBrains is increasing pricing in October (for example $150 to $173 for All Products pack with that discount) but they announced this over three months in advance, on their blog and on Twitter, and are allowing everyone to prepay for around three years to lock in current rates.

good way to treat customers IMO.

https://blog.jetbrains.com/blog/2022/06/29/increased-subscri...

Wow, I know severance isn't generally a legal requirement but effectively one day per year at the company...

In Chrome those mouse actions work as well, or right-clicking a tab and selecting "Duplicate." I'm not sure if there's a keyboard command for it.

Short version: Alexa supports third parties extending it with "Skills" apps which may be commercial. Paid functionality may be enabled via verbal confirmation via an in-app purchase[1]. Paid functionality may be one-time or recurring.

Her sister caught the corresponding email just before the paid subscription would have started. The documentation says developers must mark skills targeted at kids and those aren't eligible to have this flow enabled.

[1] https://developer.amazon.com/es-MX/docs/alexa/paid-skills/ov...

edit to add -- that was all presented without comment. But having a device that can start up a recurring subscription if anyone says "yes" to one prompt exist at all, and having the toggle for the feature on by default and in options is in the "no thanks" column for me.

bad typo re: Debt:GDP: In a recession, denominator (GDP) shrinks, not increases. Debt:GDP then increases.

Not a direct response to the parent post but it had the most keywords in common with my question:

>The Fed is likely to hike rates much more aggressively [...]

I agree, and they're about to start letting the balance sheet run off too, though at half the rate they accumulated.

My question for the wonks here: will it be difficult or expensive to hold rates above, even say, 5% for very long if needed? US national debt is over $30T. Assuming inflation persists and rates are raised to 5%, the approximate steady-state cost of servicing the debt is $1.5T/year, more than pre-pandemic US discretionary spending, and more than 33% of federal revenues. I asked a friend about this and they said not to worry, it takes a while for the national debt to roll over, but looking this up it seems most US debt is in instruments with a horizon of less than a few years.

also, I imagine Debt:GDP is not the most appropriate stat here but in the 1970s it was 30-35% and now we're over 120%. Some other countries are over 200%. And in a recession, by definition the denominator gets bigger. Or maybe the broader question is at what point does national debt matter?

I sort of feel the Fed is playing everyone's expectations, talking to cool things off and even name-dropping Volcker while hoping to keep interest rates more at 4% than his 20%. I'm not crying conspiracy or complaining -- if it works they could get their soft (now "soft-ish") landing.

was that from the recent FOMC meeting? They said there's 1.9 jobs per unemployed worker, and with high inflation that gives them some room to cool things down a little bit before hitting "real" unemployment. And they mentioned their mandate of "full employment" does not necessarily mean zero unemployment.

"Soft landing" is the magic term for this month rather than "crash;" I hope that's really in the cards vs. just trying to keep everyone from panicking.

Anyway here's the underlying data, available workers per job opening:

https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/u...

disclaimer: economics seems to be a powder keg these days even here so I'll note I am not making an argument, just saying what I remember from the FOMC comments. I know, there's U1-U6, various factors not in the numbers, the gig economy, "well maybe they should just pay more", etc.