There is definitely less overall maintenance required. The total number of mechanics needed would definitely decrease if everyone was driving electric. We did zero maintenance other than brake fluid check and tires in 3 years. This experience is typical. Certainly we will need more independent electric capable shops than we have now, but there is a definite first mover advantage at play. Also, cars get wrecked and need repairs. Body shops will always be a thing too. Still, these things are simpler, have less parts, and are easier to service in general.

> We did zero maintenance other than brake fluid check and tires in 3 years. This experience is typical.

That's nothing special these days, look at the maintenance schedule of a new Toyota Corolla, except 3 oil changes (and that's only in the US where this is done ridiculously often) there's nothing ICE specific on there...

There are valid reasons why US spec cars often have shorter intervals… heat and dust are both bad for oil, and the US has a lot more of both than Europe or Japan.

> We did zero maintenance other than brake fluid check and tires in 3 years. This experience is typical.

It's also my experience with my Ram truck.

And my 2016 F-150. Bought it used in 2017. I finally changed the front brakes yesterday not because it was necessary but because I felt that it should probably be done on a 5 year old vehicle with 47k miles on it. Took me all of an hour. I’d never changed brakes on my own before (saw and helped my dad as a kid lots of times.)

Getting from 0k to 47k is not the challenge or the impressive part, though. That should be typical, and increasingly is.

More impressive is getting from 100k to 147k, for instance.

Fair enough, most new cars /should/ need little maintenance. On a 10 year time span the number of things that can (and likely will) need maintenance can only be greater on an ICE engine. Ignition systems, emission systems, so many more moving and friction parts on an ICE vehicle.

>but you should really call your local electric vehicle mechanic and ask him how business is doing.

that anecdote is only indicative of short term market conditions. It's sort of like saying that trucking jobs are safe because there are truck driver shortages today, ignoring the impending doom of automation in the next few decades.

> It's sort of like saying that trucking jobs are safe because there are truck driver shortages today, ignoring the impending doom of automation in the next few decades.

If it's still decades out, that means it's still reasonable to suggest to people looking for a career. Changing careers at 38 is something a lot of people do, for instance after 20 years in the military.