At just $15/tonne of Carbon Tax, we halve CO2 output, mainly by destroying the economics of coal:
https://www.pgpf.org/budget-basics/what-is-a-carbon-tax-how-...
All the effort and funding currently spent on carbon capture should instead go towards lobbying for carbon taxes. The impact will be significantly greater.
The best use of Carbon Capture technology would be in building ventilation systems. If we can capture and exhaust CO2 from inside air, we can reduce ventilation requirements, and potentially reach lower-than-atmospheric CO2 levels (which could have extraordinary benefits for cognition and sleep quality).
Here is page 122 of NextEra’s investor deck. They are closing all coal plants by 2028 as they are no longer profitable to run. Even without a carbon adder per MWh, coal is dead (“near firm” solar and wind are renewables with battery backing to make them dispatchable when called on by the grid operator). Even existing combined cycle natural gas is under pressure! And their note: “We expect further technology improvements and cost declines will extend the competitiveness of onshore renewables and storage.”
https://cleantechnica.com/files/2022/06/lcoe-small.jpg?mrf-s...
Japan is opting out of financing coal plants further in Indonesia and Bangladesh, cancelling ~3GW worth of coal plant projects.
https://news.mongabay.com/2022/06/planned-coal-plants-fizzle...
So we’re seeing some progress in avoiding electrical thermal emissions, which is the cheapest emissions offset.
(Oahu, Hawaii’s last coal fired plant turns down in September after the Tesla Megapacks replacing their frequency response capability are installed, another 200MW of coal taken offline)
Also, despite the coal subsidies from congress, even families in coal country don’t want their kids becoming miners. They just want some other way to make a living.
But that doesn't seem to be the case, as those same families voted heavily for the politicians who claimed they could bring back coal jobs and the industry. So they obviously want someone to be digging coal, and who else but the next generation?
We also need laws to require plugging abandoned, venting wells, and stiff fines for venting to help pay for that.
A $1/gallon tax on gasoline is rounding error compared to all the other disasters hitting these days.
And it seems only Northern Europe and China even give a shit about the climate. Yes, China is expanding coal plants but they are also worrying more about the climate than others.
OTOH I'm not that convinced northern Europe gives a shit about it, given how much oil/gas Norway is drilling and how reluctant Germany has been to reduce its fossil fuel dependence (and now geo-politics has forced its hand on oil, it's ramping up coal usage again!).
The evidence is pretty hard to ignore though - nobody who can really do anything about it is going to give a shit until it's all too late.
Yes, one of our founders is an anthropologist and she has been doing field work in underrepresented communities. Rich countries (think they) can afford to pretend there's no such thing as climate change but nobody outside these wealthy enclaves has any doubt.
The reason we spend effort on this is that the atmosphere touches everyone, so we should try to figure out the interests and concerns of as many people as possible to make sure we do our best to do things that help everyone.
It's interesting that the biggest opponents of climate repair seem to come from Germany, USA, UK, and Canada.
> OTOH I'm not that convinced northern Europe gives a shit about it, given how much oil/gas Norway is drilling and how reluctant Germany has been to reduce its fossil fuel dependence (and now geo-politics has forced its hand on oil, it's ramping up coal usage again!).
Yes, it's frustrating that in the face of a war the convo switches immediately back to "drill" rather than "windmill". A big part of that is that corporations speak in terms of benefits, and tailor their messages to specific customer groups (this topic is probably 15% of HN posts and comments) while the conversations of governments and NGOs focus on features and risks.
But I do think it's a top of mind issue in europe, and the continued expansion of the scope of the ETS is a good example. See a long reply I wrote to "tito" to see why there's a complex combination of repairs and continued damage that is unavoidable (point 1 in my comment)
But one way or another it's the OECD who'll have to pay for the cleanup.
China has the advantage that they do not need to continue operating expensive equipment just because it was expensive.
Yes, but then you see, existing business will become unprofitable. And these business are currently profitable, and using those profits to pay bribes.
This is the fundamental issues behind all proposed solutions to climate change -- fossil fuel based companies are here now to pay the required corruption fees to keep themselves going. Renewable energy companies might be able to pay the same bribes in the future, but... not now. In the future. Now is now, and politicians want to retire to a cushy consulting job when they lose reelection election, which could be any year now, not decades in the future.
If you want to understand why corruption is inherently bad and can never be tolerated, just think back to this scenario and thousands like this. Our very future -- our survival as a species -- is being undermined by a handful of people in exchange for bribes as low as a few thousand dollars.
Call it the "American Carbon Dividend" or the "Advancing America Dividend".
The price of the beef burgers would go up by 7% according to Beef Magazine, 150% according to vegnews.com, and 40% according to NY Times.
However on a full cycle basis the difference is biochar is typically made from local material (mostly the leftover waste from the prior year's harvest) which is right there (zero transport) and would otherwise rot and release methane and CO2 on its own, even if plowed into the field.
Charcoal is made from trees, typically cut down and transported to a factory and then transported to the customer.
In general I am not in favor of burning trees, enjoyable as it is on a cold night out in the forest.
"The biggest food price hikes are in meats, with pork and beef up 14% to 20% compared with a year ago."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/meat-prices-pandemic-inflation-...
"The bill for magical thinking arrives with unpredictable timing but thunderous force." -pmarca
Not constitutionally. I demand that people stop advocating for general solutions and instead focus their action on my petty personal grievances for a marginal return.
After that, the My Climate Journey [2] and Work on Climate [3] communities are excellent entry points.
Climate is a big buffet full of all sorts of cool problems to help solve. I'm focused on carbon removal as an example, but we need millions of people working across all aspects of the planetary system.
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Drawdown-Comprehensive-Proposed-Rever...
Massive algal blooms in the ocean gives me nightmares.
Why? How you you think much of the carbon at the bottom of the sea got there? Biological activity, most of small species that died and sank.
The pelagic ocean is pretty nutrient-poor, so anything you grow there is going to need to be farmed. I've been reading that used to be far more fertile before the ecosystem crashed as we decimated the whale population (there are experiments under way for basically adding "artificial whale poo" (as it was jokingly described to me by one of the participants) to try to form little regions of more fertile surface waters.
IMHO you do want to stay away from coastal waters which are a witch's brew of all sorts of things, from runoff to various organic processes. Some algal blooms in coastal regions have been of toxic species (e.g. "red tide" -- those algaes also show up in snow BTW) but most are not that kind at all, and as I note above, in the pelagic (open) ocean you'll have to be seeding it anyway.
You want it to die and sink, but of course it will be attractive to other species some of which will eat it, grow, eventually die and sink, but will probably breath some of that carbon out again. But in the end, you'd want most of it to sink.
Just like my code, I want to make sure I'm able to undo some change before making even seemingly small changes. I don't know how you "undo" a huge cloud of algae.
If its all in some tank and can't escape, then fine, I'm on board.
Once we are electrolysing lots of water for the hydrogen, dissolving the waste oxygen in river outflows could start to save the current dead zones. But restricting over-fertilization would have a bigger effect.
Regarding the main part of your comment, what is it you think people should be working on instead?
Well, that's a broad topic! Here's how I look at it:
0 - people are going to continue peopling. Otherwise what's the point? So any argument based on privation ("you need to stop doing everything you like to do because it's sinful") won't work. Some stuff will drop at the margins (I expect meat will become increasingly expensive and other high protein alternatives will displace some of it), but all of that will continue to change gradually, though I hope the derivative will increasing in a non-linear fashion.
1 - concommitent with that: there's an enormous infrastructure of depreciating cap ex. So a power plant built today will be depreciated over the next 40 years. Yes, some economic changes can shorten that but people will try to eke out what they can from them. In fact as renewables increase, the cost of fossil fuels will fall (because of reduced demand) which will make old, polluting plants more viable.
2 - Governments have shown they cannot tackle this problem. I gave a talk at Asilomar a couple of months ago in which I showed a temperature graph and pointed out it's impossible to see the Paris conference on it. This year will be COP 27 and what has changed? Governments have a huge role to play in terms of incentives, but in actual action? Pretty much zip. I think this is an inherent property of some of the good properties of good government so I'm not claiming governments are mendacious, pathetic, controlled by some conspiracy or anything like that. I don't drive a motorcycle underwater, but I would drive one to the beach. Likewise I don't depend on governments to be able to do much directly to improve the global climate, but they can sure help.
3 - We need multiple kinds of improvement:
A - yes, we need emissions reductions and replacements for emitting activity (e.g. "alternative energy"). Though there are many sources of GHG emissons, and I don't see a way to replace most of them (e.g. we can't simply stop growing rice -- see point 0). This is "stop making things worse"
B - Because of point 1, some people need to work on adaptation. The climate isn't going to go back to the status quo ante right away (actually never -- see point 4) so the next 50-100 years will have to presume that the weather is going to get worse (hotter/colder, wetter/dryer depending on where you are). I am uninterested in this problem BTW.
C - Climate repair (sometimes called restoration) is the longest term and most important. We do need ways to change the chemistry of the air and oceans back to 1775.* Reducing insolation, removing GHGs, etc. Like I said, I really only believe in a variety of solar-powered chemistry, both biological and not. Look at some natural processes that can be sped up, like synthetic limestone which has been discussed on HN. (Maybe let's not consider the gold standard of setting off 50 massive volcanic eruptions.) Most of these are only feasible at certain concentrations of a GHG, which is one reason I'm more in favour of biologics which are more adaptable and generally easier to power. I talk with a variety of people about these topics every week, but all my efforts right now are on methane, because there's a small amount of it and it's been responsible for about 1/3 of the temperature rise to date.
There's a subgoal here, which is zapping emissions at the point of generation (so called "point source remediation"). Catalytic converters on cars work for some GHGs (though you can't stick one on a swamp); some efforts to zap methane in barns or mines are under way, etc. We could paint the insides of building ventilation with TiO2 and install UV lamps; if they could be cleaned would they work? Who knows. But stopping the emission when the concentration is highest is generally the easiest place to do it.
4 - in terms of climate repair, we aren't really going to ever "go back". We have no idea what the critical points are (where the path of the hysteresis curve changes) and will be curating the climate indefinitely. That's not terrible; we have been curating the forests of Europe for a thousand years or more (is there any original forest on that continent) and there's little "wild" forest in new england either. So it's quite doable from a social standpoint. We'll just find a point were we find the climate on earth adequate.
5 - Carbon credit can be used to cover a lot of sins (see point 1) and offset credits (don't cut down a tree) are tough to justify. But can be a pretty good way to fund repair and remediation, and could be a good way to shift the cost onto the people who create majority of the problem.
* I used to think that "1775" automatically made everybody think of James Watt's first significant patent, but it seems in the US it makes people think of political events around that time. Apparently not everybody is a steam nerd -- who knew?
There is a serious worry that in the next big Cal earthquake, dikes will collapse, pulling sea water into the delta. It has happened before.
Generally, restoring wetland that had been converted to farmland can be done in many places to similar effect. Floating solar is a big win, producing much more power than the same panel in the desert, and lasting much longer, without interfering with anything else.
search for another comment that mentions bluedotchange
We are not ruining the earth in any way. We are merely making it inhospitable to vertebrates and some other life forms.
There are billions of people living almost primitive lives just waiting to consume as much as we do driving everywhere and buying new iphones every year. We are about to make things cheaper and more efficient and give them access to this consumption.
Despite all of this advancement, resource usage and emissions has never once gone backwards or even slowed down its increase.
https://twitter.com/birdhillcap/status/1541812452760776705
https://twitter.com/AlexEpstein/status/1541768533004148738
https://twitter.com/luisbaram/status/1523671791062843393
https://twitter.com/AlexEpstein/status/1529809797582815244
There is a bigger problem. Those who scrutinize climate change are punished by the society even though we need legit scientists and people that debunk overarching claims. You could accept CC arguments but still be a critic of some of the insane claims going on today.
It's like the early COVID days. Can't criticize. Can't speak against the mob. Can't do science without scrutiny.
Right, so your sources for this is a few Twitter posts. Let's take a look.
The first one is a supposed quote from Al Gore, but he never said that. Even if he did, Al Gore getting something wrong would hardly disprove anything about climate science.
> Those who scrutinize climate change are punished by the society
You're parroting untrue claims. How about some self-awareness?
The main general point still stands. All I’m asking for is some scrutiny. By the time information reaches from scientists to reporters and policy makers, there is a lot of malaise and omission of inconvenient truths.
We need more checks and balances. Climate alarmicism is getting out of control. It's become a religion. Scientists that want to report inconvenient results are terrified.
Edit: I found some more: https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/50-years-of-failed-doomsday-e...
You just want to throw out accusations without evidence and you're complaining about "climate alarmicism" not getting enough scrutiny?
> Scientists that want to report inconvenient results are terrified.
This is an oft-repeated claim by people engaged in climate denialism, but it's a lie. A conspiracy theory without evidence. Where are all these terrified scientists? Who has been sanctioned for presenting contrary views?
A friend of mine was a climate sceptic. He started a PhD looking at glaciers and ice cores. He was expecting to experience some friction pushing back against the climate orthodoxy, but after looking through the data he changed his mind. He realised our models of the climate were consistent with the evidence.
Consider: if your "terrified scientists" theory was incorrect, and actually scientists did believe that the standard models are correct, wouldn't that state of affairs look identical to what is actually occurring today?
I am also not a climate skeptic. I just think that we need more scrutiny. The push back I get from people is insane like the strawman you've conjured up.
The inconvenient truth is that far too little is happening, and doing enough would be overwhelmingly cheaper. Quibbling has outsize impact interfering with action.
I've heard from friends who believe that we should depopulate the planet by 100x. Anti-human arguments all over the media.
Sure, it could be a bubble, just big enough of a bubble to envelope the entire West.
so try your best and if it doesn't play out: memento mori!
Trees whose wood is used as a building material, animal feed where the manure is then used as fertilizer, are 2 very accessible examples.
No need to make this more complicated than it has to be.
In order to what and at what rate? Break even? Each year?
It's not as simple as I state above, but that gives you an idea of the size of the problem.
So, this is just a step on the path....but, those numbers do seem pretty aspirational at this stage.
* when you hate on the fossil fuel industry, don't forget that it saved the whales.
Even if emissions went magically to zero today we have the accumulated emissions CO2 since 1775 lingering around and trapping all the heat we want to radiate away. We have to get rid of that as well
If you go to our crappy web site (www.bluedotchange.com) and click on the science you can read some refereed papers on the subject.
We are looking for some MEs and ChemEs and a couple of EEs and software people if you're interested.
Water on the high atmosphere looks like a good choice. But it needs some simulation to know if the water won't stay there long enough to create a greenhouse problem of the same size.
We're working in the lower troposphere (like 0-50 m). The stratosphere frightens me (and the folks who want to spray sulphur compounds up there are terrifying.
Water in the upper troposphere (AKA Marine Cloud Brightening) like Silver Lining is trying to do feels like a pretty good cooling approach. I wrote a jokey paper in the 80s about giant volcano-powered teakettles spewing steam into the upper atmosphere but the much simpler approach of simply spraying seawater into the air is clever.
Congratulations on the project.
For other GHG and pollutants there are uv-powered systems like TiO2, olivine etc, though there are also limits to how much they can do.
Basically we have to "mash our hand on the keyboard", i.e. try to do them all, but I can't see machines like these making any meaningful contribution.
Note: I'm working on methane destruction straight in the atmosphere, so I'm putting my money (and my time) where my commenting is.