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Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by ufmace on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @06:34PM (#31760288)
Yup. The key point is, a weapon system becomes obsolete when something else does its job better, not when it becomes more vulnerable. When something valuable becomes more vulnerable, you protect it better. When it becomes less valuable because something else does the job better, then you get rid of it.

As of right now, nothing does a ground offensive like a few dozen tanks advancing at top speed with appropriate support. They'll blast anything in their path and charge right through all but the toughest and most concentrated defenses. As long as you can see those really concentrated defenses in advance and go around, they're pretty tough to stop.

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by latch on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:12AM (#31762924)
There must have been _some_ intersections of time/technology and/or cost/efficiency where this didn't hold? Where a weapon system became _so_ vulnerable that, despite being the best at its job, it still wasn't good enough.

As an example, is there a point where hypersonic weapons become so effective that aircraft carriers are [temporarily?] retired? Surely the cost (time, money, human lives) that goes into the weapon system is part of the equation.

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by ufmace on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:23PM (#31769286)
I suppose it's possible that might happen at some point in the future, but I don't think that's ever happened.

Humans are about the most vulnerable thing out there. Yet nobody suggests that we should get rid of the infantry because they're too vulnerable. Instead, we give them camouflage gear, some armor, train them to stay behind cover and move carefully, and work on better medical care if they get hit.

FWIW, hypersonic weapons are likely overrated. The hard part has always been finding an active deployed carrier and tracking it well enough to guide a weapon into it. If you can do that, there's no shortage of weapons that can sink it. The carrier's tactics are to use its air wing to stay outside of radar range from any targets while still being able to strike, and using airborne radar as needed to monitor the area without revealing the precise position of the actual carrier.

Foreign militaries are just as prone to exaggerations about how effective their weapons are as American military contractors. Results of well-run tank divisions against anti-tank teams, some of which are documented in the GP's video, show that the kill rates against tanks are often underwhelming even in situations where the tanks are at a disadvantage.

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by openasocket on Thursday June 16, 2022 @11:25AM (#31767166)
Hypersonic weapons have a lot of FUD around them. First off, they aren't some new technology. Most ballistic missiles achieve hypersonic speeds, including the V2 rocket from WW2. What's new are hypersonic glide vehicles that follow a ballistic trajectory up and then are capable of moving and maneuvering down to a target. Notably, this method means that the hypersonic glide vehicle is traveling SLOWER than a ballistic missile traveling to the same target, but the trajectory is depressed and the ability to make some maneuvers complicates targeting and tracking. And that isn't even overly new technology, there have been tests of the hypersonic glide vehicle concept dating back to the 1950s and 1960s. An example of a hypersonic glide vehicle that was actually used was the space shuttle. There's also hypersonic cruise missiles, which are able to achieve hypersonic speeds in level flight.

So what does Russia have? Currently, all they have fielded is the Kinzhal missile. But is it neither a hypersonic glide body nor a hypersonic cruise missile. It is simply an air-launched ballistic missile. It would not be suitable for an anti-ship mission, unless striking a ship docked in port. The impressive and novel thing about it is that they managed to get a ballistic missile to be launched from an aircraft, which is rather tricky to do from an engineering standpoint, and IIRC is the first ALBM to actually be deployed. They also have Avangard in development, which is a hypersonic glide body deployed from ICBMs for the nuclear strike mission. Finally, they have the Zircon missile in development, which is a hypersonic cruise missile meant for the anti-ship mission. Russia claims to have completed testing of the missile, but it doesn't appear to have been deployed yet. It's unclear how effective it would be against a carrier strike group, with air defenses, electronic countermeasures and decoys. Notably, it cruises at a high altitude, unlike most anti-ship missiles which try to skim the surface to make it harder to detect and track on radar.

Ultimately, I don't think that hypersonic weapons fundamentally change the security of the carrier. It may necessitate the development of some anti-missile missiles better tuned for the counter-hypersonic mission. It may necessitate altering doctrine towards the anti-ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) mission to complicate targeting such missiles. I could be wrong of course!

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by dotancohen on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:56AM (#31763202)
With Russia fielding hypersonic weapons now, could you imagine if they threaten the US with "Send arms to Ukraine, we sink your aircraft carriers"? In that sense, hypersonic missiles may replace much more costly to maintain and much harder to deploy nuclear weapons.

In fact, it looks like the US has 11 active aircraft carriers [1]. It seems that they are all near port right now [2], this might be the reason.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_t... [2] https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/vessels/USS-George-H.W.-...

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by raxxorraxor on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:12AM (#31763299)
Still don't understand the value proposition. Mobile air support is pretty important but supersonic missiles and modern submarines could sink or severely damage an aircraft carrier. Perhaps a sub getting away again would be almost impossible but the damage of the carrier would be much more costly, worst case you also lose all the planes. So I would place them in shallow waters near ports too...
Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by brutusborn on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:23AM (#31763669)
My naive understanding is that carriers are not designed for use in conflicts where your enemies are those who can develop hypersonic missiles. Think about Iraq / Afghanistan; the carriers sitting nearby provided support for the invasion. They could easily stay far enough away that they don't have to worry about their safety because their opposition military was not very sophisticated.

Simple: carriers are for power projection against weaker enemies with low tech militaries. Thus their vulnerability against high tech miliraries is a moot point since wars between high tech powers == World war == unlikely (hopefully).

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by thereisnospork on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @07:14PM (#31760642)
> Yup. The key point is, a weapon system becomes obsolete when something else does its job better, not when it becomes more vulnerable. When something valuable becomes more vulnerable, you protect it better. When it becomes less valuable because something else does the job better, then you get rid of it.

What does a vulnerable tank do that self-propelled artillery doesn't do better? Not being vulnerable to small arms is one of the key value propositions of the tank, in a modern anti-tank heavy environment* tanks are just expensive slow moving trucks w/ a big gun.

*as we are seeing in Ukraine.

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by baud147258 on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @07:20PM (#31760691)
> What does a vulnerable tank do that self-propelled artillery doesn't do better?

Being able to directly support infantry and their IFV/APC on the frontline?

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by tlear on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @10:12PM (#31761831)
I think the claim is that SPG can also fire in direct mode and they have MUCH bigger guns. Imagine an SPG with trophy system bolted on it. Question is, is passive armour beyond stopping bullets and shrapnel worth it?

I wonder if the new "tank" will be a wheeled SPG that can fire hull down and has an APS system. Or it could be something like BTR 4 with its auto cannon, being able to carry some infantry, add APS to that and you have a lethal combo.

There is also a lot of overselling of infantry support. Stugna or Javelin can kill T80 from 4km away, what use is dismounted infantryman there?

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by lmm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:13AM (#31762625)
> Stugna or Javelin can kill T80 from 4km away, what use is dismounted infantryman there?

Well they can carry their own Stugna or Javelin. Isn't that an argument for more dismounted infantry, not less?

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by robertlagrant on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:53AM (#31763516)
I don't think they work on people.
Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by fractallyte on Thursday June 16, 2022 @05:08AM (#31763918)
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1534472563681812482 [Ukrainian Stugna-P ATGM strike on Russian troops]

Warning: combat footage, people die...

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by isbvhodnvemrwvn on Thursday June 16, 2022 @05:09AM (#31763927)
APS protects against ATGM, not cannon fire.
Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by tlear on Thursday June 16, 2022 @11:26AM (#31767192)
Well that is the big question, is it worth trying to protect from kinetic penetrator or not.
Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by trashtester on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:05AM (#31763259)
T-72's are 50 year old tanks. It's like fielding WW1 tanks in the Vietnam war.

A T-72 is both easy to detect and easy to kill for someone with a Javelin, while the Javelin-man is hard to detect and non-trival to kill (at range) with the T-72.

The arms race between protective equiment (armor, shields, etc) and anti-armor weapons has been going on for over a thousand years, arguably longer (like when Roman pila would get stuck in enemy sheilds, making the shields useless, even if the pilum didn't kill the enemy soldier).

In our current age, the previous generation of tanks has been made obsolete by ATGM, just like Cuirassiers were obsolete at the outbreak of WW1 and WW1 tanks were obsolete at the outbreak of WW2.

Modern tanks with state-of-the art sensors and APS are much better protected against ATGM's. While still not the ideal platform for use against anti-tank weapons, at least they don't get slaughtered on first contact. If the enemy has a high concentration of ATGM armed infantry in an area, it's probably better to take them out with infantry, artillery and/or aircraft. Given the cost of ATGM's, this is cost-efficient. And if the ATGM's are spread out, a tank formation with good protection systems can affort to smash through, even if it comes at the cost of a few casualties, to maintain momentum.

Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by mediumsmart on Thursday June 16, 2022 @12:16PM (#31767773)
Maybe HQ could triangulate the javelin man when he is googling "Javelin makes strange noises" or "Javelin not functioning" on his smartphone. And then give the coordinates to the tank crew to even the odds a little.
Re:Does the Tank Have a Future? by 29athrowaway on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @10:27PM (#31761910)
Occasionally, weapons make a comeback. Like the turtle ships of Admiral Yi Sun-sin.