Whereas Europe might directly suffer from instability and chaos, as well as loss of Russian energy supplies, the US would not and in relative terms becomes stronger if Europe is severed from Russian energy, and the continent is in conflict and chaos.
Europe having tight relations with Russia, economically especially energy-wise, is greatly beneficial to Europe and detrimental to US hegemony.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_Hist...
You're once again excluding any calculations of Russia using the money to run around overthrowing democracies. "It's greatly beneficial if you ignore all the mass murder."
The whole reason why they're now cancelling NS2 is because of this. Germany likes cheap energy, sure, but they're less than enthused about the money paying for that cheap energy going into executing and raping civilians in Ukraine.
And if you are looking for a mass murderer, is there a bigger mass murderer than USA after 20 years of mass murder in the Middle East?
To fight ISIS, it is mostly a joint effort of US + NATO + Allies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_Joint_Task_Force_%E2%....
> The United States accounts for the vast majority of airstrikes (75–80%), with the remainder conducted by Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Jordan, Belgium, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom.
Isis was a direct consequence of American invasion of Iraq. You can't do what America did in Fallujah and not expect some kind of blowback.
Furthermore, it is worth studying the Arab Spring and what the underlying causes were: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring#Causes
You have to consider the EU vs Russia.
It's not in EU's or Germany's intrest to keep trading with Russia
It is not in US's interest to let EU keep trading with Russia
USA wants the EU to be their giant marketplace where they can sell their culture and products
USA also wants to weaken Russia so they can finally contain China North, East, West and South
Seems like you were sleeping the past century, blurry days ahead!
Russia's been blatantly assassinating people across Europe for years and would invade Poland in a second for personal pleasure even if it caused an economic loss for them again.
They haven't evolved past Mongol horde methods of living with their neighbors and are relying on everyone else always taking the "rational" result of appeasing them rather than fighting back. The correct response in this iterated game is to punish them and let their more productive people immigrate to you.
They haven't evolved past Far West horde methods of living with their neighbors, they are killing each other with firearms and countless death in schools
They let their people die, and their house burn because they have no money
They impose trade sanction to whoever doesn't want to knee and show their submission
They'll also impose their military base in your country [1]
Look at the evolution of Russia past 3 decades, and look how it has improved significantly, same can be said with China, they are barely in debt, what can be said about the USA? during that timeline
Ohhhh, yeah, the USA can trade with Saudi Arabia, no bid deal there ;)
But yeah they are good at seducing people, so the pill is easier to penetrate, i will give that to you
[1] https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-16/Japanese-protest-U-S-m...
Have you noticed that literally nobody cares about this? Even the people we killed don’t care. Even Greenwald, who started this line of argument, doesn’t really care - he just hates Obama, he dropped it the second the next guy did it even more. (And Biden has completely stopped doing it.) Even you don’t care, you’re just doing whataboutism.
That’s because the ME countries aren’t actually allies just because they’re next to each other. More importantly, we don’t lie about it when asked, and we don’t use wacky spy methods like poison and radioactive weapons.
well, it's like saying people left SF because the grass is greener the other side of the country, not because it'll be a nuclear warzone
America is not a friend to Europe. We have no business joining America in a struggle against Russia.
It is immensely in the interest of Germany to have good relations and continued trade with Russia.
Germany's intrest is for Ukraine to win as quick as possible
Before the war Germany at least had a reasonable sounding argument (peace through trade) but it's been proven totally wrong they need to admit they were wrong and move on
My definition of winning is the same definition of winning war has had since the beginning of time: achieving one's political objectives.
Ukraine's political objectives are:
* To be in the strongest possible position at the peace table
* To get military and political support from the West against Russia during the conflict and after the conflict is over (EU membership, military protection from NATO if not NATO membership).
They are on track to achieve both.
Russia's political objective was clearly regime change, which miserably failed, and then control of Donbas, which they are struggling to achieve.
So, who's winning?
The only way Russia wins is if nonsense Russian talking points infest Western public opinion so much that we stop arming Ukraine.
The only place Ukraine is winning is in Western media.
Russia's currency is stronger than before the conflict, their trade surplus is larger, they are making more money from elevated energy prices, they have and will have more territory.
Europe / Germany through stupid sanctions, and talk of more, against Russian energy have inflated energy prices and now have to purchase energy in Rubles after they confiscated Russian Euro and USD foreign exchange reserves. Whereas before they could purchase all in their own currency and were in talks to expand gas supplies through Nord Stream 2, now they've cancelled that project and on the margins have to buy Rubles to buy energy.
Prediction: The pain will increase on Europe and they will realize their bread is buttered in the east, they will come to the conclusion that positive trade relations with Russia, compared to the US are more advantageous and eventually they will approve Nord Stream 2. They will do everything they can to regain the ability to buy all or most energy and commodities from Russia in Euros, meaning ending sanctions and not expanding them.
Good video describing the geopolitical dynamics of European / Russian trade relations after the war ends in Russian victory: [0]
Two months ago Russian forces controlled a greater fraction of the territory that they do now.
While wars are fundamentally unpredictable, most military experts agree that further Russian advances are extremely unlikely, and that the best result Russia can hope for is a stalemate along the front as it is right now.
Two months ago Russians were still trying to take Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk. The first one is now taken, and the second is almost taken.
> most military experts agree that further Russian advances are extremely unlikely
Most military experts you are reading maybe. Russia has been slowly and steadily continuing its advance.
You are making assertions all over the place and don't seem to care that you're getting assertion failures from all of them.
Yes, Russians didn't manage to take Kiev or Kharkiv. But that doesn't change the fact that they are making progress in the east and the south. Wars have more than one front.
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-likely-still-wants-much-... And the thing is even if they conquer Donbas and declare victory that wont end the war since Ukraine will keep fighting to reclaim them.
Russia does not have what it takes to dissuade Ukraine from continuing to fight and they can't sustain the war effort as long, the longer the war goes the larger the Ukrainian military gets and the more hardware from the west it gets while Russia struggles with recruitment and military manufacturing under sanctions.
I know youtube videos from random people are rarely convincing but Perun has a really good one going step by step how Russia is unable to win this war just based on their difficulty with waging a long war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08
It is not possible for Ukraine to win, they are slowly but methodically getting their country destroyed. What does Germany lighting money on fire funding this destruction do for German interests?
How does this solve their energy needs? It doesn't, it along with sanctions makes energy more expensive. Where they used to be able to buy all energy in Euro's, now some of these purchases now require buying Rubles. Thus Ruble exchange rate is up and Russia's trade surplus is growing.
Germany's alliance with NATO expansion and US meddling in Ukraine along with following US lead to cancel Nord Stream 2 is crushing their economy. Self-sanctioning out of Russian cheap energy supplies will further destroy their industrial output.
>hope it ends the war sooner
hope. That's all they have. It will only impoverish them sooner. Diversification of energy is a worthy goal, but it insane to do this now by first cutting off their primary cheap energy supply. First, continue to buy as much cheap energy as Russia will sell them (instead of selling it to the East). Then, cancel ESG green insanity and pursue oil/gas investments and nuclear expansion wherever possible. But at the end of the day if your neighbor wants to have good trade relations with you, you shouldn't throw that away in service to your "ally" across the ocean.
This is backwards, its not possible for Russia to win since Russia is having much more trouble with getting recruits and training them then Ukraine is and can't easily manufacture replacements for lost hardware while equivalents are being provided to Ukraine. The longer the war goes the worse it goes for Russia. Yes Ukraine faces death and destruction but the mood in Ukraine is a determination to keep fighting and Russia is incapable of inflicting enough damage to change that.
Russia was the one meddling in Ukraine, not the US, to Russia's detriment. They are the ones who have set Ukraine against them with their actions. Their actions have led to Finland and Sweden to apply to join NATO.
Based on Russia's actions its clear that Nord Stream 2 should never have been built
>But at the end of the day if your neighbor wants to have good trade relations with you, you shouldn't throw that away in service to your "ally" across the ocean.
Russia is not willing to have good trade relations with Germany. Decades of German politicians have bet on buying Russia's good or at least tolerable behavior through economic interdependence.
Russia made all of them into fools and proved their critics right.
This isn't about America. This is about the EU, about Poland and Czech Republic and Lithuania and Finland. And most of all this is about Germany. Russia is the one who threw it away and proved that Germany's interest was not to buy from Russia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/02/germany-depend... (Germany has been forced to admit it was a terrible mistake to become so dependent on Russian oil and gas. So why did it happen?)
> In recent weeks even Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German president, a totemic figure of the Social Democrats and greatest German advocate of the trade “bridge” between east and west, has recanted. He admits he misread Russia’s intentions as he pursued the construction of a new undersea gas pipeline. “My adherence to Nord Stream 2 was clearly a mistake,” he told German media in April. “We held on to bridges that Russia no longer believed in, and that our partners warned us about.” This is an extraordinary admission for a man who acted as chief of staff to Gerhard Schröder, the Social Democratic chancellor from 1998 to 2005 and thereafter a lavishly rewarded, and much reviled, lobbyist for Vladimir Putin. Steinmeier was also foreign minister under Chancellor Merkel, and a great evangelist for Wandel durch Handel, the concept that trade and dialogue can bring about social and political change.
The problem comes from what they've decided to use their exports as leverage for.
Economic interests don't have to perfectly align for one nation's relationship and favor to be preferable over another.
Economic interests don't exist in a space devoid of cultural, ideological, or emotional ones.
Reaching the conclusion that relationships should be normalized is only truly ideal if you're viewing it: A) in an economic only vacuum and B) from a lens of maximizing Russia's resource based leverage, because that's all they have.
Russia has regularly ppl killed on european soil. Sometimes using chemical weapons that cause collateral damage.
Russia has an extensive propaganda and disinformation network running in europe.
Russia massively buys political influence by shopping for ex politicians, this way corrupting the political process.
Russia has a history of military conflicts with its neighbours, see occupation of Trnsnrista in moldowa, abchasia and south ossetia in georgia, the annihilation of chechnia, all the stuff in ukraine and helping belarusian dictator Lukachenko suppressing his people.
Looking at the levels of gas storage in europe by gazprom it is very obvious that its behaviour was not driven by good faith financial interests but as a weapon of the kremlin against europe.
And lets not forget the shooting down of MH17 where, not only did the russians deny any responsibility, they even clogged the public discourse with disinformation campaigns of tons of ridiculous and contradictory theories.
So, no it is not immensely in the interest of Germany to have good relations and continued trade with Russia as long as this regime is in power. Flood ukraine with heavy weapons till the russians are driven out. Then put up a new iron curtain till something substantial changes for the better.
Heaven forbid any Europeans have any interest themselves in not helping a warmonger. Obviously they can only do this at the behesr of Uncle Sam.