Getting through any one of the stages of an Ironman (or heck even a half of each stage) represents a level of fitness most adults do not have and will never attain.
It took for me 21 months of training to go from effectively zero to a half ironman and the biggest barrier was swimming, which is very technical in nature. I still can’t swim very well. I was in no shape at all and overweight. If you look at the speeds required to stay within ironman time limits, they are quite low and a person in a slightly better than average condition would be able to sustain them with relative ease. The barriers might be swimming technique (which one might have from training as a kid) and things like biking position and running technique but not necessarily fitness as such. In fact, I see quite a few people visually in much worse shape than I am (i.e. fatter) doing long IMs and beating me at shorter distances.
Just as the ability to learn how to fly planes within a year doesn't change the fact that most people aren't and won't become pilots.
I think my marathon was a 5:30 or something like that. Lots of walking, but I never stopped moving.
Also there are perfectly ordinary ways to figure out you need to eat more, Ive coached some pro cyclists and done a decent amount of my own triathlon and cycling adventures and if someone gave me a free vo2 machine I don’t think I would ever use it.
in the 10 days before the race I would predominantly eat a high fat diet. Based on all the testing I’ve done, what you eat in this window has a large impact on how your body uses fat vs carb on race day
The fat burning starts when you empty the glycogen chambers, but there is a sweet spot in terms of energy output, because as other people has pointed out, you can't do high intensity work on fat.
So it makes sense as an ultra endurance athlete that you try to pack som fat before a race, because it will be effective as a slow burning resource.
Another interesting thing at the moment are the ketones supplements one can drink.
I can hear thousands of Garmin owners screaming about this comment as they obsess over their VO2 Max.
[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002604951...
[2] https://web.archive.org/web/20201111190720/https://zachbitte...
If you're interested in some of the other physiological impacts of keto adaptation, here's a presentation Volek gave a couple years ago that helps contextualize both the FASTER trial and a related TANK trial his team ran, as well as some other interesting related performance research: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeS_dhM8dsY
[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002604951...
[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002604951...
[3] https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphys.2018.0059...
As for "hitting the wall", this often happens around 20 miles as this is where your stored glycogen is depleted. To avoid this happening, you'd be better off to "train the gut" to handle consuming ~60g carbs per hour while running at your target pace/intensity.
naively, it seems measuring oxygen consumption would be useful.
Also unlike aerobic fitness, which can be improved with year after year of consistent training, an athletes peak Vo2 max (for their given fitness) can be maxed out over 4 - 6 weeks of specific training. Doing much more specific Vo2 training can result the athlete (at least in running) becoming ‘flat’.
That said Vo2 measurement can provide a great deal of useful information but for most recreational athletes getting the basics right is more important than having an exact Vo2 measurement.
That said, it does provide some correlation to an athletes performance “ceiling”, and you’ll typically find elite endurance athletes are naturally blessed with an impressive Vo2 max. You’re not going to win the Tour de France with a Vo2 max of 50 no matter how hard you train, just like you’ll never play Center in the NBA if you’re 6’1.
I'm not a physiologist or physician (and I'm sure what I'm about to say may be max cringe to the bonafide experts that are around), but my basic understanding is that when expending effort, you burn calories from fat stores and from glycogen stores. Glycogen stores store around 2000 calories, and expending one's glycogen stores results in hitting "the wall" - your body simply doesn't have any fuel to proceed. Your fat stores, on the other hand, provide access to tens of thousands of calories.
People are generally fat-inefficient - any effort immediately biases towards consumption of glycogen. And when you're out, that's it. Your day is done. So knowing the rate you're burning carbohydrate calories can inform an athlete how often and how much to fuel.
Some people are born "fat-efficient", meaning they can access their fat stores easier. Fat efficiency can also be improved through low-intensity endurance training with improved diet. So athletes will periodically do a VO2 test to stay in-tune with how their body is using the fuel sources available to it.
Many years ago I did an Ironman (Couer d'Alene) and a Vo2 test indicated I needed to aggressively consume calories (at the effort I was planning to ride) on the bike. After all, you have to get off the bike nutritionally prepared and hydrated to run a marathon. So that's what I did, and I had a good day considering I really wasn't all that fit.
Endurance and ultradistance events aren't really tests of toughness. They are science experiments. It's all about figuring out how to take one's fitness and stretch it over the distance of the event.
One additional note - there are machines much less expensive than 60k available, but they are still pretty expensive (in the thousands).