What happens when the number of dollars approximately doubles in 2 years as it happened?

Do you think prices stay the same and everything is just 50% off?

Reality is that the current number is off by reality quite a bit, real number has to be much higher. It's just math and the worst part... it can't be just reversed.

Do you think countries that don't use the USD will remain unaffected? People keep blaming this on the fed "printing money", but that logic only holds water when just the USA is affected.

Everyone is experiencing inflation; it's a global phenomenon. Some countries have it even worse than the USA because their local production is getting redirected to the USA, where even higher prices will be paid.

In two years, things will very likely cool down globally.

If commodity inflation is caused by an over abundance of USD, then there would be a whole host of side effects from this. One of which, is as I said, price inflation localized to the USA. The second would be a weakening of USD relative to most other strong currencies. So let's look at that:

USD : Euro - Slightly weaker relative to 2020, but overall, right around the average strength over the past ten years.

USD : GBP - Same as the Euro.

USD : CAD|SGD|AUD - Weaker than 2019, but much stronger than the 10 year average.

USD : JPY|INR - Very strong

USD : CNY - much weaker than 2019, better than 2018, right about at the 10 year average.

It's there, but only slightly. And only after 2-3 years of crazy strengthening.

I predicted about 2x inflation as a best-case outcome a year ago. Worst-case outcome would have been serious structural damage, in terms of business bankruptcies, lost jobs, lost mortgages, etc.

Unless we get into a hyperinflationary cycle, we came out pretty well, economically.

Our public health response, on the other hand, was and continues to be a disaster.

I am now starting to wonder if the unrealized gains tax is the 'reversal' and the interdemensional checkmate on hidden wealth.

You're a monster.

What do you mean by "number of dollars approximately doubles in 2"?

I think OP was talking about monetary inflation. We nearly double the money supply so it should translate to a nearly double price inflation.

> it can’t just be reversed

I don’t know where you’ve gotten this idea from. The fed can destroy money just the same as it can create it.

You only have to look back to 2019. [1]

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/the-fed-continues-to-reduce-its...

Look at 5 year view.

It really has to be that. There's no other logical/sane justification for it. Fed is monetizing govt deficit spending and artificially suppressing long term rates to support asset prices to make things look good in the short term.

On a risk adjusted basis, it's obviously awful policy.

The only reason he was is that Yellen was recommending a raising of interest rates in 2018 and the sitting president was worry about the optics of that going into reelection. In comes Powell, the man willing to kick that can down the road.

Raising interest rates was the right move in 2018. It's just that the economic benefits of doing such takes a few years to pay off.

Is there any logic behind this timeline prediction?

People equate the fed not hitting their 2% target with hyperinflation and it’s absolutely maddening to see the level of discourse drop to astounding lows when this happens.

Has tuition even notably increased in the last 12 months?

The best thing that could happen for me is major deflation. But it is too politically unpopular, I bet it will be years before we get a fed chairman who has the spine to raise rates. So I'm reduced to angrily complaining online and shaking my fist at the sky while our rulers at the fed prop up boomers and leave my generation out to dry.

I would confidently bet money that they raise rates in 2022.

At the end of the day, the fed has to take its queues from the fiscal policy that’s in place. This time around is very very different from 08.

Now, im not trying to downplay the fact that elevated inflation can cause issues, but it so so challenging to keep that nuance when every discussion devolves into “we are on the precipice of +1,000% inflation” when the inflation rate went from 1 to 6.

Obviously 6% won't do that but at higher levels its the complex dynamics driving inflation than good old supply demand balance. And don't think that exports will solve hyper inflation because at that point other countries will also expect devaluation in currency which becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Again not applicable to dollar and USA for the moment but at higher inflation levels anything is possible.

In the future, not only is it possible your money will buy you less, it is also possible that no amount of money, no matter how large, can obtain what you need.

For instance, anything with a silicon chip in it. For some goods, every known upstream retailer is out of stock, with no idea when it will be replenished, and the resellers are doing business at way above MSRP.

This is just a fundamental misunderstanding of what causes hyperinflation.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-manu...