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Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by kerng on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @10:54AM (#29176063)
You miss the key point on why this is happening and will continue to get significantly worse.

What happens when the number of dollars approximately doubles in 2 years as it happened?

Do you think prices stay the same and everything is just 50% off?

Reality is that the current number is off by reality quite a bit, real number has to be much higher. It's just math and the worst part... it can't be just reversed.

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by mywittyname on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:34AM (#29176642)
> What happens when the number of dollars approximately doubles in 2 years as it happened?

Do you think countries that don't use the USD will remain unaffected? People keep blaming this on the fed "printing money", but that logic only holds water when just the USA is affected.

Everyone is experiencing inflation; it's a global phenomenon. Some countries have it even worse than the USA because their local production is getting redirected to the USA, where even higher prices will be paid.

In two years, things will very likely cool down globally.

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by option_greek on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:48AM (#29176857)
The money fed prints doesn't stay in USA. It floods the entire globe trying to find the maximum return it can. That is the reason all stock markets everywhere are at record highs and commodities are continuing to push upward. As more economies are getting heated, many have started raising their own interest rates to reduce inflation.
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by mywittyname on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @12:34PM (#29177475)
At some point, we need to accept that The Fed is not God of the World Economy. They can have a major impact on the country's economy, and they can influence foreign markets to a degree, but they are not responsible for everything. They just don't have that kind of power.

If commodity inflation is caused by an over abundance of USD, then there would be a whole host of side effects from this. One of which, is as I said, price inflation localized to the USA. The second would be a weakening of USD relative to most other strong currencies. So let's look at that:

USD : Euro - Slightly weaker relative to 2020, but overall, right around the average strength over the past ten years.

USD : GBP - Same as the Euro.

USD : CAD|SGD|AUD - Weaker than 2019, but much stronger than the 10 year average.

USD : JPY|INR - Very strong

USD : CNY - much weaker than 2019, better than 2018, right about at the 10 year average.

It's there, but only slightly. And only after 2-3 years of crazy strengthening.

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by option_greek on Thursday November 11, 2021 @04:42AM (#29186238)
The USD vs other currencies cannot be compared to USD vs commodities which paint a more transparent picture because no one wants their own currency to be stronger than USD due to export competitiveness getting effected. So whenever USD goes down, they buy more USD with their own currency to keep the peg contained in a range. I know all are supposedly free floats central banks do buy and sell to contain volatility. So the thing that needs to be watched is not the ratio of currency but the USD denominated forex levels which as per my understanding have raised across the board as capital leaves US shoes to these countries. I don't have data to back it up but at least in non tourism dependent economies it is the case.
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by blagie on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @10:59AM (#29176139)
I'm not sure that's the worst part.

I predicted about 2x inflation as a best-case outcome a year ago. Worst-case outcome would have been serious structural damage, in terms of business bankruptcies, lost jobs, lost mortgages, etc.

Unless we get into a hyperinflationary cycle, we came out pretty well, economically.

Our public health response, on the other hand, was and continues to be a disaster.

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by anonymouse008 on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:44AM (#29176796)
> Reality is that the current number is off by reality quite a bit, real number has to be much higher. It's just math and the worst part... it can't be just reversed.

I am now starting to wonder if the unrealized gains tax is the 'reversal' and the interdemensional checkmate on hidden wealth.

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by WarOnPrivacy on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @12:03PM (#29177064)
Are you recommending the world spend a bit of it's hoarded wealth, to allow less money to be printed?

You're a monster.

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by ignasheahy on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @12:38PM (#29177532)
Are you saying rich and powerful have grandpa checking bank accounts and just refuse to spend it? They are owning real estate, land, companies, resources - that's where their wealth it. In high inflation scenario current wealth gap will look like good old times... Slight inflation is good, but high inflation will be troubling to a lot of regular people.
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by dubcanada on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @10:59AM (#29176149)
I have no idea what you are saying. Also what is "just math" and why can't it be reversed? Inflation can go down, it's not a purely up percentage, you can have negative inflation.

What do you mean by "number of dollars approximately doubles in 2"?

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by hartator on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:18AM (#29176422)
> What do you mean by "number of dollars approximately doubles in 2"?

I think OP was talking about monetary inflation. We nearly double the money supply so it should translate to a nearly double price inflation.

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by dlp211 on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:46AM (#29176832)
That is not how inflation works.
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by hartator on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @12:08PM (#29177146)
All thing being equal. 2x monetary supply should translate to 2x price inflation. It’s literally how inflation work. The reason we don’t have that’s crazy inflation is not everything is equal. Mostly at natural the economy should deflate right now.
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by abeppu on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:37AM (#29176686)
You can have negative inflation, but don't central banks work really hard to avoid that because (the theory goes) deflation will kill spending?
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by jjk166 on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:59AM (#29177007)
Pretty big difference between "we want to but we can't" and "we can but we don't want to"
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by dlp211 on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:45AM (#29176805)
Yes, and what's your point?
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by wbsss4412 on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:16AM (#29176385)
Setting aside my other issues with this analysis, this is just flat out incorrect:

> it can’t just be reversed

I don’t know where you’ve gotten this idea from. The fed can destroy money just the same as it can create it.

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by kerng on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:20AM (#29176454)
That's an interesting point, has that ever been done?
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by wbsss4412 on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:26AM (#29176520)
The fed was in the process of lowering its balance sheet pre pandemic.

You only have to look back to 2019. [1]

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/the-fed-continues-to-reduce-its...

Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by boringg on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:00AM (#29176160)
FWIW: Narrow money - (cash, deposits, savings account) over $40 trillion of USD. $90 Trillion in broad money. $1.3 quadrillion including investments, crypto, derivatives.
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by boringg on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @10:57AM (#29176108)
We haven't doubled the money supply (not even close). The amount of misinformation in this conversation in the general public speaks to the lack of understanding of our monetary systems.
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by kerng on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:27AM (#29176526)
So how much has the money supply increased/decreased according to your sources?
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by srj on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:35AM (#29176652)
You're the one who made the assertion - curious on your sources. If you're simply looking at fiscal stimulus spending that's a pretty naive view of economics.
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by kerng on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @11:40AM (#29176738)
Re:US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply cha... by jjk166 on Wednesday November 10, 2021 @12:02PM (#29177060)
Look at the 25 year view. 2014-2019 was an anomaly where us GDP grew 22% while the money supply contracted by 25%, we are currently back to the straight line we've been on since 2008.