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Re:The New Population Bomb by Nesco on Thursday September 23, 2021 @05:16PM (#28635548)
This article uses the false assumption that Africa and the Islamic World fertility rates would follow the ones of Europe, America and Asia. This assumption which was ludicrous since the beginning has proved false overtime with - incompetent in my opinion - demographers forced to increase their estimates of the peak number of humans earth will host every five years.

There may be two P-Bombs: America, East Asia and Europe which spirals toward demographic collapse on one hand and Africa and - a bit less - the Islamic World which spirals toward overpopulation on the other hand.

E.g. Egypt which is already overpopulated fails to succeed to drive its fertility rate under 3. Maghreb countries such as Algeria and Morocco actually saw their fertility rates increase again after decreasing for the past decades. And that does even include demographic nightmares like Niger where half the population is systematically under 15

Re:The New Population Bomb by ed_balls on Thursday September 23, 2021 @05:32PM (#28635759)
> Africa and - a bit less - the Islamic World which spirals towards overpopulation on the other hand.

I don't think this is true. Every single country is on the decline. They may sill grow in this century, but it's very likely that it would stop in 50 years.

Re:The New Population Bomb by Nesco on Thursday September 23, 2021 @05:42PM (#28635887)
Northern African countries curves seems to be impervious to the final part of the phenomenon, their fertility rates seemingly unable to going under the 2.1 bar and even going the other way.

And in the case of Niger, Mali, Nigeria etc, when their TFR would eventually cross the 2.1 limit of demographic transition according to the standard model nearly half the global population would live there at the end of this century. It is insane and completely unsustainable even when not taking climate change and ressources depletion into account

Re:The New Population Bomb by ed_balls on Thursday September 23, 2021 @05:57PM (#28636104)
That's why it's never gonna happen, they don't have resources to support this population growth.
Re:The New Population Bomb by aeternum on Thursday September 23, 2021 @06:23PM (#28636356)
Which resources specifically? We are now exceedingly good at growing food, and water is just an energy problem (can use desalination or purification). Solar alone might be sufficient given the cost and efficiency curves.
Re:The New Population Bomb by ed_balls on Friday September 24, 2021 @12:02PM (#28644227)
We are, but not Niger.
Re:The New Population Bomb by giantg2 on Thursday September 23, 2021 @05:23PM (#28635621)
"This article uses the false assumption that Africa and the Islamic World fertility rates would follow the ones of Europe, America and Asia. This assumption which was ludicrous since the beginning has proved false overtime"

Do you have any data for that? It's supposed to follow development and modernization, which seems to still be lagging.

Re:The New Population Bomb by pepperonipizza on Thursday September 23, 2021 @05:28PM (#28635700)
Re:The New Population Bomb by Nesco on Thursday September 23, 2021 @05:34PM (#28635788)
This article explains a bit the findings:

https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2013/08/demographic-transiti...

Tl;dr Demographers have previously assumed that since Asia followed the same path, the European model of demographic transition was a universal truth. However they underestimated the impact of cultures (in Africa having large families is considered has an assurance as if one of the children succeed the parents will be protected), religion (in Islam even if contraception is legal, one need a valid reason and procreation is heavily encouraged), traditions, genetic differences (I think I read somewhere the age of puberty is a bit lower for people of West African descent) etc.

A documentary about this phenomenon in Niger: https://youtu.be/btMUecYNBc4

Re:The New Population Bomb by giantg2 on Thursday September 23, 2021 @06:35PM (#28636445)
But we have seen fertility numbers in Africa drop from about 6 to 4. Infant mortality has greatly decreased too, so the chances of kids surviving is higher.

Theres a lot of talk about traditions and cultural norms. Do these people realize that the traditions and culture norms in the US, European, and Asia are not only diverse but have also changed over time as well?

Re:The New Population Bomb by Factorium on Thursday September 23, 2021 @05:29PM (#28635719)
Fertility is negatively correlated to IQ:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016028960...

"There were strong negative correlations found between national IQ and three national indicators of fertility."