iPhone launched 2007. Android was announced in 2007 and released in 2008. Palm had large-screen phones with apps and a browser in 2002[1]. A lot of things happen around people that isn't completely due to them being them. We can't know what would have happened without Jobs, but it seems fair to say that much of the global-scale stuff would have, though perhaps not Apple itself.
[1]: if not earlier. randomly skimming wikipedia finds e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treo_180 from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Palm_OS_devices
I believe there's a logical fallacy that described this thinking. I definitely don't think the smartphone revolution was inevitable, at least not on the timetable it happened on because Jobs pushed it forward.
Yea, Palm had large-screen phones, and yet most people didn't care and still didn't have smartphones. That could have kept repeating for a long time more, with just Blackberry holding the market and just for "business phones," if Apple hadn't come in with its consumer gravitas.
It's easy to look in hindsight and think the future was inevitable, but it often wasn't.
And Android also runs Java. It being a full Java rather than the weird inconsistent nonsense that was J2ME is heavily due to significant compute improvements - in that sense, Android was merely ahead of the curve, and made some good architectural choices to make it perform well.
So yeah, I think the powerful personal phone revolution was inevitable. They might not look like iphones, but they would absolutely look better than Windows CE before they hit a billion users.
Plus, really. Look at Palm OS. Look at iPhones. There's not a huge UX conceptual leap there - it's much more in the premium hardware, and later in the unified app store, proving that the market for mid-high-price good devices existed (more expensive WinCE devices already had a small but consistent market. Pro/consumer-grade was inevitable). And I think there's room to argue that we'd be better off without the app store monopolies that resulted, so that could go either way (though I fully grant the massively superior user experience at the time).
Even all these years later it's still basically impossible to make a Java application that runs on mobile and desktop (it's technically possible with Gluon but I've never seen it in the wild).
At best the shift allowed you to reuse libraries .. which is not a small win, but seems like a fraction of whats possible
I'm not deep in the Java mines so maybe I've missed some big picture issues around convergence - and why it wasn't even attempted. Would be curious to hear from the gurus :)
So "full" Java brought both a significant wave of standardization, and gained access to an utterly HUGE set of libraries, tools, and developers that were mostly unavailable before.
So language-wise it's a somewhat small improvement as you are probably expecting. Android could have been another J2ME, and everything probably would've worked the same. But it greatly lowered the barriers to entry, which is basically a requirement for a large and active app ecosystem.
I think it's understandable given how under-powered the devices were - but the end was sort of inevitable
Android at the time was similarly awful. I remember talking to an android engineer at Google a few years later. I was asking him why android’s UI still sucked compared to iPhones. He said android was the only mobile operating system still standing which was invented before the iPhone. They had to essentially piece by piece reinvent the whole core OS to make it relevant after the iPhone came out. That was taking longer than they would like - because of course it was. But to their credit, they got there.
Google at the time was working in the same hardware ecosystem as Apple and they didn’t invent the iPhone. And that’s not criticism - the design of the iPhone is only obvious in hindsight. If Apple didn’t do it, who knows what our phones would look like today. Probably much worse.
The touch screen keyboard, swipe to unlock, rich fonts, full multitasking & app switching. This was all revolutionary at the time. Steve jobs was an arse. But he (and his team) pulled off a revolution with the iPhone. He deserves credit for that.
What it did have was a much bigger and better touchscreen that didn't need a stylus. (Even that wasn't really a technical innovation per se - rather it was the willingness to charge over twice as much as previous phones that made it possible).
That, and many people were glad to have plastic screens - iPhones shattering because you looked at them too enthusiastically was a source of many lols and many expensive repairs / re-purchases. The early iPhones still scratched nearly as easily (keys or sand were more than sufficient), but they were nowhere near as durable overall. Decent screen durability, screen protectors, and protective cases took years to arrive - the gorilla glass of the time was far, far more fragile than it is now.
I liked Nokias, I even programmed for Symbian OS, but boy, that was one convoluted system. The UI was pure hell, badly documented, error-prone and had to be tailored to every device out there (of which Nokia churned out a lot), unless you wanted to risk bad artifacts.
They also LOVED to introduce major compatibility breaks.
Still, the iphone did everything so luch better that I switched.
Steve Jobs?
This is going to need a fair amount of substantiation, because those are some wild claims.
Personally I tend to side more with rms's position on the passing of Steve Jobs.
I just wonder how credulous someone needs to be in order to assert that guy ".. completely transformed modern life and changed the human trajectory for everyone on the planet, multiple times."
Perhaps if I'd ever owned or used any Apple products, I may have bought into these grand claims. Alas my ICT history has been Commodore, PC-compat, Palm, Nokia, GNU/Linux, begrudgingly Microsoft, and Google products, etc.
EDIT:
From the link you shared:
"Jobs later reflected that had it not been for Wozniak's blue boxes, "there wouldn't have been an Apple"."
"According to Wozniak, Jobs told him that Atari gave them only $700 (instead of the $5,000 paid out), and that Wozniak's share was thus $350."
Wozniak was / is a legend. Steve Jobs was persistently awful.
>Steve Jobs was persistently awful.
I don't think the first statement supports the second, he did give some credit there. I think often awful.
although where awful is concerned, was he worse than a lot of powerful people. We have a lot of awful people to look at, where does Jobs fall on the scale, because when I look at Jobs he doesn't look anywhere as bad as Harvey Weinstein. Lots of people who frequent HN probably went around thinking Bill Gates was much worse than Steve Jobs, is he still or is Jobs the worse one now?
As to a leader-board of awfulness - we may be missing the point there. Sure, yes, lots of powerful people are awful, but one doesn't excuse the other.
I suspect for a lot of free software advocates, idealists if you will, it's hard (and more importantly, pointless) to try to measure who was the most awful person in terms of compromising people's freedoms.
not sure if I understand you here - you're not suggesting he annexed the credit - he quite clearly shared it or in that quote almost gave it entirely away.
>Sure, yes, lots of powerful people are awful, but one doesn't excuse the other.
yeah I don't know if most people, given the power, won't be awful some times. Also I'm not sure if almost all people are not awful sometimes, if given the right pressure.
So when someone is complaining about the awfulness of any one person I guess I actually want more than anecdotes of how rude they were, considering how awful people can be. (That money thing is one but well, I've also noticed people when they don't have money will sometimes be untrustworthy about it)
"Alvy Ray Smith helped invent computer animation as we know it—then got royally shafted by Steve Jobs"
The article paints Jobs, in much more detail than the byline above, as an extremely toxic personality.
The absence of any technical brilliance is fairly well documented, and Woz was the first, possibly most famous, person he leveraged / misled (depending how charitable you want to be).
So, yes, I am saying he annexed the credit. The quote that we're talking about - musing on how there wouldn't have been an Apple without Woz - was from a 2011 book, where he looks back, from his multi-billionaire perspective, at someone he shafted repeatedly some decades earlier. Who knows the tone of this comment - to me it doesn't feel like a '...and I feel bad about it' type comment, just a casual aside.
Mind, Woz was just one of many casualties along the way, too.
> So when someone is complaining about the awfulness of any one person I guess I actually want more than anecdotes of how rude they were, considering how awful people can be.
The stories of Jobs' awfulness are many and manifest. Start with a web search on 'stories of steve jobs being awful', or go straight to Lisa Brennan-Jobs' book. Arguably every story about someone is by definition an anecdote, so perhaps this won't be enough for you.
In any case, the guy certainly did NOT 'completely transform modern life and changed the human trajectory for everyone on the planet, multiple times', seemed to have no notable skills beyond showmanship, and was awful.
Steve Jobs may not have invented the personal computer, smartphone, or computer-generated animated movies, but he definitely popularized all of them
None of those things were invented by him, or by the companies he worked with. They were mass-marketed by him.
While there are plenty of stories about his abusive behavior (usually to his staff) especially in his younger days, there are equally plenty of positive anecdotes about him as a human. Personally I don't think I would have enjoyed working for him, but I feel it would have been an experience I would have not regretted. Like all of us, he was flawed in some areas, good in others.
I am starting to wonder if this is a tech thing. Because if you talk to people in many other industry, you will have a high chances of seeing / meeting one.
And there are plenty of people who worked with him have no problem what so ever. And all of them are ones that are willing to stand up for themselves and talk back to Steve.
I mean, by the age of late 30 one should realise most of the work we have today are really really shit. This may not be apparent in tech. But it is commonly the case everywhere else. Trying to push for higher quality and inertia will absolutely drive a person insane.
That's some real hyperbole. We had phones and pc's already, it wouldn't of transformed our lives or changed our trajectory but yes he has been influential in shaping what that looks llike A cosmetic impact sure.
So he was an ass to work with... That doesn't void anything else that was done, nor should it be a highlight. Worth mentioning, sure.
Visionaries are usually hard to deal with (perhaps because they are fighting against the grain). Most visionaries are wrong, but that diversity is what pushes us forward.