> there's no great reasons for it to come from Canada

Energy security, not propping up authoritarian regimes with terrible human rights records, not requiring military interventions to protect a stable supply of oil.

Maybe not good enough reasons to change the balance, but reasons nonetheless.

Alternative: phase out oil. Also solves those problems.

Right, while you wave your magic wand to try and accomplish that, the world will keep using oil.

Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow transition not a switch we can flip.

> Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow transition not a switch we can flip.

And trains lend themselves much better to slow declining transition than a new pipeline. Can be used for other cargo; are a bit more expensive so they are a mild financial disincentive; the contaminated material (tanker cars) are by definition mobile and therefore easier to deal with at EOL.

I think that economies are stubborn beasts, if they can avoid change they will. I don't think it's reasonable to expect any sort of energy transition to occur gracefully while oil is in supply. As the price goes up we'll see some industries priced out and over time we'll see early adopters convert but we're not going to see a smooth transition for the populace at large.

It really depends on what “at large” you mean and the timing. If we passed a carbon tax and told everyone that oil will never be cheaper than it is now the phase-out would be relatively smooth: people would buy smaller, fuel efficient vehicles and EVs; there’d be more carpooling and combined trips; and people would be quicker to use transit or remote work. The same is true for home heating, various trades using equipment like lawnmowers, etc. — make a clear promise and do so across the board so people have the incentive to make capital investments.

The problem there is if you need to do it quickly: if the SUV/truck trend hadn’t caught on, for example, fleet economy wouldn’t have reversed the improvements we saw in the 80s and early 90s. The longer we wait, the harder that gradual transition will be.

This. To me it's like being a paper form printing company when computers were just becoming mainstream. Your days are numbered, deal with it and survive or don't and you wont.

We will be using petroleum products long after everyone on this forum is dead. Might still be 60-70% of current demand as well, maybe higher.

I think it will change faster than that. The acceleration to electric vehicles has gone far gayer than I ever imagined possible thanks largely to Tesla. Solar and wind have also taken off in a way I would have never expected a decade ago.

You're probably right, but i hope you're not.

A lot of innocent people are going to feel a lot of pain when that happens (along with completely guilty people of course) - I don't think it's avoidable myself but I can definitely sympathize with the people fighting to try and cushion the transition.

All very good reasons to invest in a domestic refinery and let Canada enjoy its own riches.

USA cutting off one of the most ethical jurisdictions in the world. Sacrificing energy independence and for what? Endless war and military expense propping up authoritarian governments with ongoing human rights abuses.

The US is the largest oil producer in the world.

Yet Russia is the largest oil supplier to the US

The US is the largest oil supplier to the US. You can kinda thank W for that.

I think that actually occurred under Obama.

It did, which is kind of hilarious in hindsight because he kept saying “we can’t just dig our way to lower prices”, and they had no idea that some Texan would invent fracking…

The economy of Alberta depends less on revenues from oil and gas than the economy of neighboring British Colombia depends on real estate (aka flipping houses), and is roughly as diversified as Ontario (in terms of % of economy coming from various sectors) which is the other heavy weight economy in Canada.

People keep saying that Alberta needs to diversify as though this is some sort of epiphany that the province refuses to have, but it honestly just reveals the ignorance of the person making that claim regarding the current economic state of Canadian provinces.

Yet Alberta is feeling economic pain in a way that Ontario and BC do not seem to share.

They aren't diversified enough.

Yeah because housing hasn't crashed (yet). Also Alberta is feeling economic pain only in comparison to the crazy boom years prior. It is still literally the highest GDP/capita of any province, its unemployment rate ranks it 5th amongst Canadian provinces, its government is still the least indebted on a per-capita basis of any province, it has the highest labor force participation rate of any province, etc, etc. The fact that Alberta is still paying federal transfer payments to the rest of Canada should be sufficient shorthand to convince you that the economy is not as dire as you would think when viewing it from the outside.

Do you trust the Kenney government to diversify properly? All we've seen so far is them waste a bunch of money on Hydrogen.

I trust them more than I trusted Clark, but that's not saying much.

Not as far as I can throw them.