In my district of Kolhapur in Maharashtra, the district officials report 30-40 deaths per day, while official numbers stay at 1-3. That means the state is under reporting by 10x to 40x. And this is still counting only those people who, 1. died in hospital after being tested +ve for covid 2. did not have any comorbidity, as then they'd be classified under that comorbidity, however ridiculous it might seem(e.g. person dying of diabetes when infected by covid)
So actual numbers are likely to be much higher, given that all beds were full already last week itself.
Note that this is an opposition ruled state. Situation is even worse in BJP ruled states, where for example, 1. Tests are done only for few hours a day. 2. People are being charged with spreading misinformation for asking for oxygen cylinders on social media. 3. Deaths are being under reported heavily. 4. crematoriums are not accessible to reporters.
I happen to live in Bangalore (BJP ruled). There's certainly no evidence of 10-40x underreporting of deaths happening here. I don't doubt at all that they're underreported though; but to a smaller extent.
Do you have any links?
Here are some reports about Gujarat[1][2]
[1] https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-guja... [2] https://caravanmagazine.in/health/how-gujarat-is-undercounti...
About Covid not being listed as cause of death in cremation houses - this is a definite problem in North India. Southern states do not suffer from this social stigma. Cause of death is being properly mentioned here.
Sources are crematorium staff describing how many additional bodies they have to burn and epidemiologists.
The lack of cremation facilities are reported throughout the country. It is not just about one region or the other. The under-reporting is reported in most places. The lack of tests in places like Kolkata shows that people even after showing symptoms can't get tested. All these point to the official government numbers being a fraction of the actual numbers.
In an environment where the government is under-reporting and the news reports are the only ones showing the ground reality we can only speculate the actual number for the whole country. We may never do. Until that we can only opine and point to the evidence we have.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the...
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-...
https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-cr...
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the...
This is not in line with only 3500 people dying all over the country. This is in line with the range the above comment mentions. My anecdote of people dying my inner circle is not political. Neither is my opinion that the official numbers are to be not trusted given the evidence.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...
It's like my parents' restaurant, you can get busier and busier without there being a wall. When you "hit capacity" you find you're doing many things that you weren't normally doing, like being open a lot longer, asking for longer shifts from staff, rationing things that you wouldn't normally ration.
Can't be the case throughout the country in all affected districts and all densely populated states.
You see reports of crematoriums running 24/7 and still not able to fulfill the demand for cremations and find it reasonable to land on any other conclusion but people are dying. I think I've presented enough.
Extraordinary claims (such as up to 3 million deaths in ten days) require extraordinary evidence. My response, if you notice, was specifically about that claim. And I also did not fail to mention that deaths are underreported.
And it definitely suggests that the amount of under-reporting varies by area, so it's even more unfair for you to multiply the entire country's number by 100 as your goalpost.
There are however, other reports you can quote:
- The Print (not govt-leaning) "If you claim India’s Covid death toll is 2x govt figure, it’s understandable. But not 10x" [1]
- NYTimes: Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan who has been following India closely. “From all the modeling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported.” [2]
In short, I strongly feel throwing numbers around without basis simply widens the chasm.
[1]: https://theprint.in/opinion/if-you-claim-indias-covid-death-...
[2]: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...
Have a look at this article to get a sense of the scale of the problem.
https://www.article-14.com/post/bjp-states-hiding-covid-19-d...
There is large scale, govt backed effort to not report in a few states for ex UP which is most populous - govt was directing labs not to take samples. and no admission to hospital as corona patient until you provide RTPcr test id(this is from a friend who's in the state capital and father's in the hospital now). Death rates 10x official counts overall wouldn't be surprising at all.
There were 200,000 cases and 1,200 deaths yesterday as per official reports.
Unofficially yes, more than 10,000 people died. Not sure where you got the 350k numbers from
So up to 350,000 people died just yesterday. And over the last ten days, up to 3 million people died?
While deaths are certainly underreported, it isn't helpful in a pandemic to throw random figures around.