In the US, most (59%) deaths come from people aged 75+ according to CDC. People aged 75+ make up roughly 12% of the population.
Some places are at much lower percentages. "Fully vaccinated" varies from ~12% in Utah to ~24% in New Mexico. 17% overall for the US.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm...
Ideally you can protect them by suppressing the virus by herd immunity, which I think is actually a viable prospect with these vaccines.
[1] https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/dat...
Google screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/OMu5EcY
Probably not. And in 6 weeks, that just means millions more will be vaccinated and younger people will have even more organic immunity.
In other words, there may be another surge, but it will probably be the last one, and probably over by May 15.
Again, non expert, don't cough on people, etc.
So things are better than in most places and will continually get better.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea...
> Michigan has more recent cases per capita than any other state, and has seen them soar in recent weeks, to more than 5,600 cases a day from about 1,000 on Feb. 21. The nation’s top five metro areas in recent cases per capita are all in Michigan: Jackson, Detroit, Flint, Lansing and Monroe.
...
> Health officials partly attributed the rapid rise in cases to the B.1.1.7 variant that was originally identified in Britain and is widespread in Michigan. But they have also observed a broader return to prepandemic life seen in a relaxing of mask wearing, social distancing and other strategies meant to slow the spread of the virus — many weeks before a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated. On Thursday, Michigan officials announced that they had identified their first case of the P.1 variant, which has spread widely in Brazil and has now been found in more than 20 U.S. states.
...
> Dr. Joneigh S. Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive, said on Tuesday that 50 percent of state residents over 65 were fully vaccinated, a sign of progress that the most vulnerable population is closer to protection from Covid-19.
> But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities.
The relative rate doesn't matter, the absolute rate does (how often does it mutate at all and survive to infect another host).
It's always been a bad thing and will continue to be a bad thing.
Your argument, then, is that one can make a confident affirmative argument about the null hypothesis absent any evidence and be correct in so doing...?
COVID shouldn't be so much of a mystery any more, it has been 12 months of the most focused study the world medical profession has ever done. The only thing holding our knowledge back of the short term behaviour of COVID is ourselves at this point. We've had time to watch the disease play out multiple times.
> But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities.
> “I do think this could be the beginning of a third surge,” Dr. Khaldun said, after an initial rush of cases in Michigan last March and April, followed by a surge in October and November. “I am concerned. But I also think there are things that we can do today that will start to turn that curve down.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea...